The striking vastness of the world’s largest surface freshwater resource, the Laurentian Great Lakes, has generated the fallacy that they are not highly vulnerable to climate change. This fallacy has created a great lapse in our research and understanding of the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes, which are approaching critical environmental thresholds and jeopardizing ecosystem services. This article takes the novel approach of correcting the disconnect between the perception of vastness and the reality of vulnerability to climate change in the Great Lakes, and takes an additional novel step to link the water risks with the economic risks. The primary purpose is to demonstrate the interdependence of the freshwater ecosystem services affected by climate change with the economies that are highly dependent on those freshwater services in the Great Lakes region. Although many believe that environmental science or ethical arguments should be sufficient to warrant action on climate change, evidence shows that policy-makers are not compelled to generate advances unless there are strong economic components. This article highlights the leading edge of climate science for the Great Lakes, having conducted 32 in depth interviews with experts in microbiology, ecology, and limnology, among others, but it also adds substantively to previous work by providing economic evidence of water risks in the agricultural sector and energy sector, which constitute over $6 trillion in value and jobs that are specifically dependent on lakes waters. The article concludes by articulating three specific conclusions: the economic viability of the agricultural sector and the energy sector are jeopardized by loss of federal funding for climate change adaptation in the water sector; the existing policies such as between sectors such as the Farm Bill and Energy Future Bill are mal-aligned and should be aligned with the water sector; and negative environmental externalities including factors that exacerbate climate change should be incorporated into the true cost of water so we can more accurately conduct ecosystem valuation and, thus, address the true economic and environmental cost of climate change on the Great Lakes and our greatest water resources. This paper has not previously been published.
The Great Lakes are vast yet vulnerable. At a critical threshold, the Great Lakes are currently facing consequential environmental challenges from climate change. Degradation of water quality and quantity due to climate change has already altered the capacity of the Great Lakes region to produce agriculture, decreased the ability to generate energy, and exacerbated environmental stressors such as toxic uptake. Yet there is a great lapse in our understanding of the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes and the associated environmental and economic risks.
The Laurentian Great Lakes are the world’s largest surface freshwater resource. The Great Lakes, bordered by the United States and Canada, hold 25% of the planet’s total freshwater [
The Great Lakes region produces $4.6 trillion in economic output [
The Great Lakes region is at a turning point in economic development and approaching environmental thresholds, and is demonstrating national and international leadership in recognizing, addressing, and advancing the understanding of economic and environmental interdependence, and how to steward that interdependence for long-term prosperity and sustainability. The eight US states and two Canadian provinces of the Great Lakes join an increasing number of international watersheds and nations that are seeking “ways to move beyond economic growth patterns that diminish natural resources to those that support long-term sustainable development” [
The purpose of this article is to highlight the intersection of economic risks and water risks based on the newest scientific evidence of the effects of climate change on freshwater resources in the Great Lakes. To establish this intersection, the paper is organized to move in a logical progression from 1) the economic valuation of ecosystem services in the Great Lakes, including water assets and water-dependent employment, to 2) the effects of climate change on water resources and agricultural production, to 3) the effects of climate change on water resources and energy production, to 4) a conclusion by way of suggesting ways forward that protect the region’s most valuable natural asset, the waters of the Great Lakes. It concludes by suggesting a range of policy-based strategies to incorporate climate models into water restoration projects. The intent is to take the mystery out of interpreting science-based evidence on the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes, and make it practical and feasible to incorporate climate information into protection and restoration efforts.
To conduct this study, the author(s) completed 32 interviews with leading water scientists, climate scientists, and related experts across the Great Lakes region in the US and Canada, including 21 specialists in Great Lakes ecosystem health comprised of biologists, microbiologists, limnologists, hydrologists, and climatologists, as well as 11 leading economists and policy analysts on climate change in the Great Lakes. To comply with the International Review Board exemption for Human Subjects Research, the identity of the expert interviewees and their related institutions or agencies are protected consistent with legal regulations and ethical standards. In addition to the 32 indepth interviews of leading science experts and extensive curative archival research on over 200 articles on climate change in the Great Lakes, this study replicated the descriptive statistics of the leading articles on economic valuation and employment statistics, and it cites only those few studies that could be replicated and verified using the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative Report to Congress and the President by the Environmental Protection Agency [
Ecosystem valuation of the Great Lakes shows that there are more than 1.5 million jobs that are directly related to water resources in the Great Lakes. Those jobs generate over $62 million in wages [
In addition to ecosystem valuation as measured by jobs and wages, the value of the Great Lakes has also been estimated for its ecosystem services value and restoration value, in which the economic value of the Great Lakes is shown to be substantial. The Brookings Institution’s Great Lakes Economic Initiative estimates that the Great Lakes have a direct economic benefit of $50 billion in long-term benefits and $30 - $50 billion in short-term multiplier benefits. Included in the estimates of this restoration value are the direct benefit of $7 - 12 billion from tourism, fishing and recreation; the direct economic benefit of $12 - 19 billion in property values; and the direct savings of $50 - $125 million for municipalities providing drinking water [
The Great Lakes ecosystem continues to face climate threats that jeopardize its economic vitality and environmental sustainability. If these threats are not addressed, the Great Lakes region stands to lose it economic engine. Without the water-driven economic engine, the Great Lakes region will lose its 1.5 million water-related jobs, $62 million in wages, $100 billion related ecosystem valuation, a substantial part of its $4.6 trillion in economic output, its influence as the fourth largest economy in the world, its national and international leadership in the water sector, and immeasurable multiplier benefits.
The economy viability and prosperity of the Great Lakes region are largely possible because of the abundance of rivers and lakes as arteries and inputs for the auto industry, beverage industry, steel industry, paper manufacturing, agriculture, mining, heating and cooling of factories and power plants, transporting raw materials and shipping products across the region and from the Midwest to the ocean, and historically for dumping the toxic waste products of industry and the toxic fertilizers of agriculture into the waterways. The environmental damage of this toxic waste disposal became undeniable when the surface of rivers in the Great Lakes region ignited on fire, including the Cuyahoga River, Buffalo River, Rouge River, Detroit River, and Chicago River, among others [
To protect the economic viability of the Great Lakes states, over $300 million has been spent annually by the United States Federal Government to protect and restore the waters of the Great Lakes basin. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), which administers the $300 million, has received widespread bipartisan support to sustain the ecosystem services. However, the current administration has proposed a 97% cut in the GLRI funding, which would dismiss efforts to address climate change, degrade water resources, and derail economic development in the region.
Agriculture is the largest and most essential component of the Great Lakes economy. It generates $15 billion annually in food crops [
Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and increase severity of droughts, punctuated by incidents of extreme storms and floods, which will alter the capacity and reliability of crop production. The extreme weather events will also increase erosion and the loss of nutrients from fields, and increase the run-off of toxic chemical pesticides and fertilizers. For the Great Lakes overall, climate models predict a warmer and wetter climate with more variability. In specific, temperatures in the Great Lakes are expected to increase 3˚C - 7˚C in the next 60 - 70 years [
Most of the agricultural production is in grains, soybeans, dairy, livestock, and corn for food, animal feed, and bio fuel. The Great Lakes basin accounts for seven percent of all agricultural production in the United States and 25 percent in Canada [
Climate change at the national and global levels also have direct effects the environmental tax of the Great Lakes. The extreme droughts in other parts of the United States and global water scarcity at the international level will increase the demands on intense agriculture in the Great Lakes region, as a function of our greatest natural asset and economic input, freshwater. If this freshwater is severely degraded, it will jeopardize the capacity of agriculture to continue to thrive and prosper.
The Great Lakes region produces enough energy to power approximately 45 million homes. It is technically an energy independent region, although it imports and exports different forms of energy such as coal depending on needs and price. There are over 580 power plants in the Great Lakes region [
The energy sector is highly dependent on freshwater resources. It takes large quantities of water to produce energy: to extract energy resources through mining or hydrologic fracturing; to clean energy resources or separate energy resources from ore, shale, clay, sand, or bitumen; and to heat and cool power plants. The largest water-users in the energy sector are coal-fired thermoelectric power plants, which withdraw 16 billion gallons (60,000 megaliters) per day [
In addition to substantial carbon missions from the energy sector that contribute climate change, the inverse is a reality in the Great Lakes: climate changes poses numerous threats to the energy sector such as rising water temperatures and decreasing water supplies, including declining lake levels in the Great Lakes. Water temperatures and evaporation rates are expected to rise in the region, which statistical models predict will decrease lake levels by a drastic 8.2 feet (2.5 meters) by 2090 [
As a harbinger of change, the Great Lakes region is approaching an important threshold in needing to sustain its freshwater assets in order to maintain its economic prosperity. This reality is particularly evident in the large economic sectors of agriculture and energy, which are highly dependent on the freshwaters of the Great Lakes. A ripple of stakeholders and decision-makers are working to move from an economic model of consumption to one of conservation, or at least recognizing the relationship of the economy to the water assets upon which it depends.
Three important conclusions emerged from this investigation, particularly regarding the intersection of economic risks and water risks highlighted by the 32 experts interviewed. Conclusion one: policies to address climate change in the Great Lakes need to restore the proposed 97% reduction in federal funds for restoring and sustaining the Great Lakes. The loss of this federal funding jeopardizes the economic viability of agriculture and energy in the region, as well as diminishes the other $100 billion in ecosystem valuations for employment, conservation, tourism, and shipping, among other benefits. Conclusion two: the agriculture sector and energy sector need to align their practices with water policies for climate mitigation and adaptation. Evidence shows that policies are currently non-existent or mal-aligned. As these policies are developed or aligned, they should incentivize water efficiency in the agriculture and energy. Conclusion three: include liabilities and negative environmental externalities into the true cost of using water and maximize efforts to reduce pollution such as increasing compliance with the US Clean Water Act that requires toxic pollution to be reduced to zero. This would include enforcing existing laws and governing water through the Public Trust Doctrine, which would increase the demand for the mitigation of both economic and environmental risks.
There are hundreds of organizations, businesses, universities, and thousands of citizens actively working to restore the Great Lakes and to recognize the interdependence of the economy with the vital freshwater resources of the region. For example, in research and education, the Great Lakes region has “the world’s leading network of universities” [
Business and entrepreneurship in the region also demonstrate an emphasis on the comparative advantage of freshwater resources. There are thousands of businesses that are focused on water-related production and consumption. For example, the Milwaukee Water Council coordinates a collection of over 120 water-related businesses in the Greater Milwaukee Region, and supports business development, economic growth, attracting new businesses and investments, and financing entrepreneurial endeavors in the region based specifically on the proximity, availability, and proclivity to focus on the Great Lakes freshwater resources. Accordingly, the Brookings Institution’s Great Lakes Economic Initiative makes the case that “The Great Lakes and its waterways offer a tremendous opportunity for reinvigorating the economy of the region, and boosting the competitiveness of the nation as a whole” [
The economic prosperity and environmental sustainability of the Great Lakes are not juxtaposed or antithetical; they are interdependent. Freshwater is the engine of growth in the Great Lakes region; it generates over 1.5 million in jobs and produces $4.6 trillion in economic output [
Although the Great Lakes are vast, they are also fragile ecosystems and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The impacts of climate change are already consequential in the Great Lakes. As a way forward, the case of the Great Lakes, the world’s greatest surface freshwater resource and one of the world’s largest economies, suggests that we recognize the interdependence of the economy with the environment, and that we steward both with an understanding of the inextricable link between prosperity and sustainability.
The author is grateful for the funding and forward-thinking of Fulbright Scholar Program, as well as Ellen Amster, Karen Bird, Carolyn Johns, McMaster University Ontario Canada and University of Wisconsin Milwaukee USA.
The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.
Kehl, J. (2018) The Great Lapse: Climate Change, Water Resources and Economic Risks in the Great Lakes. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 10, 1106-1114. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2018.1011065