J. Biomedical Science and Engineering, 2011, 4, 426-434 JBiSE
doi:10.4236/jbise.2011.46054 Published Online June 2011 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/jbise/).
Published Online June 2011 in SciRes. http://www.scirp.org/journal/JBiSE
Twenty years study of solar, geomagnetic, cosmic ray
activity links with monthly deaths number (n-850304)
Eliyahu Stoupel1,2, Ramune Kalediene3, Jadviga Petrauskiene3, Skirmante Starkuviene3,
Evgeny Abramson4, Peter Israelevich5, Jaqueline Sulkes4
1Division of Cardiology, Rabin Medical Center, Petah Tiqwa, Israel;
2Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Te l Aviv, Israel;
3Department of Medical Management, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania;
4Management Data Center, Rabin Medical Center, Petah Tiqwa, Israel;
5Department of Geophysics & Planetary Science, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Email: stoupel@inter.net.il
Received 8 April 2011; revised 25 April 2011; accepted 10 May 2011.
The interrelationship between human life and death
at the end of the XX and beginning of the XXI centu-
ries is the topic of this study. The aim of the study is
to study links between time, Solar (SA), Geomagnetic
(GMA) and Cosmic Ray (CRA) (Neutron) activity
and monthly deaths distribution from all and six
subgroups of death causes in years 1990-2009 for ad-
ditional clarification of the role of exogenic factors in
human homeostasis. Methods and patients: 850304
deaths (44657 men, 400647 woman) and 6 subgroups
were studied in 240 consecutive months in the Re-
public of Lithuania in relation to the months of year
(1 - 12), 4 indices of SA (Sunspot number and Solar
Flux), 3 indices of GMA (planetary and regional for
the Middle Latitudes), and CRA described by Neu-
tron activity on the Earth's surface-remains of
crushed atoms in the high space levels and measured
by Imp/min. The cosmophysical data came from
Space Science Institutions in the USA, Russia and
Finland. Statistical analysis of the results for monthly
comparison are presented. Results: It was a signifi-
cant and inverse relationship of monthly deaths
number for both gender with CRA and SA, less with
GMA. It was a significant drop of deaths from IHD
and suicides. Oncology deaths also sho w similarity in
their timing with other groups. A strong inverse rela-
tionship was seen in monthly death number from
IHD and Stroke. (r = -0.76, p < 0.0001), woman show
more seasonality in death's distribution. Most deaths
show annual rhythm with acrophase in February.
Only Suicide pick appears in the summer months.
Conclusion: at the beginning of the XXI century, in
addition to accepted risk factors, environmental
physical activity is linked to timing of death. Cosmic
Ray (Neutron) activity is one of the main regulators
of this relationship. Stroke related deaths are becom-
ing a more prominent cause in the collection of car-
diovascular deaths. Suicide related deaths show a
drop, possibly related to a massive trend for immi-
gration in the high risk group of the population. The
precise mechanism of action of the studied physical
factors needs additional studies.
Keywords: Deaths; Geomagnetic; Solar; Cosmic Ray;
Neutron; Activity
Life exists in four power fields: gravitation; electromagnetic;
weak nuclear power; strong nuclear power. These factors
in differe nt way s influence l ife, incl uding hum an hom eostasis.
Human life has a start-conception, and finish-death, all
components of li fe.
The aim of this study was to explore links between levels
of three physical factors related to the mentioned power
fields Solar (SA), Geomagnetic (GMA) and, opposite to
them, Cosmic Ray (CRA) activity and monthly distribution
of human deaths number. The progress in space exploration
and computerization of related physical and medical data
provide now better opportunities fror such study.
Data of the National Archive of the Republic of Lithua-
nia for twenty years, 1990-2009 (240 consecutive months)
was used. Monthly deaths distribution of 850304 pe rsons
(449657 men and 400647 women) was analyzed. Smaller
groups of deaths—parts of the total group, were also
studied: Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD, n-300046),
E. Stoupel et al. / J. Biomedical Science and Engineering 4 (2011) 426-434
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. JBiSE
Stroke (CVA, n-104243) and ratio between these two
death groups monthly, Accidents (n-80486), Traffic Ac-
cidents (n-18532), Suicide (n-28005), deaths from ma-
lignancies (Oncologic deaths) (n-154311), Diabetes
Mellitus (DM) (n-5417); an additional, artificial, group
of Non Cardiovascular deaths (n-446015) was obtained,
excluding from the Total deaths number deaths from
IHD and CVA—two major cardiovascular killers.
All comparisons were made for total and both gender
The cosmophysical data (SA, GMA and CRA monthly
indices) was obtained from the National Oceanic At-
mospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data
Center, USA, National Space Weather Prediction Center,
USA, IZMIRAN Institute of the Russian Academy of
Sciences, Russia, Oulu University Neutron Monitoring
Station, Finland. For SA and GMA International indices
of their activity were studied (1-7)—(Sunspot number,
Solar flux), for GMA planetary and regional indices for
the Middle Latitude (Ap., Cp., Am.) were used. For CRA
Neutron activity in impulses per minute (imp/min) was
used. The Neutrons are remains of atoms crushed by
Cosmic Rays in the higher Space. The SA and GMA are
serving as shields defending the Earth from CRA; their
activities are inverse related.
Pearson correlation coefficients (p) and their probabili-
ties (r) for all physical parameters and monthly death
numbers were obtained. Probabilities at 95% and higher
were described as significant; probabilities of 94% -
90% were included in the Strong trends to significance
category. Correlation with probability less than 90% was
mentioned as Non Significant (NS). In addition, multi-
factor analysis was performed building prediction mod-
els for total and each pathology related deaths group,
including the Intercept and significant factors for each
prediction model and their probabilities.
First of all we checked the interrelationship between the
three main studied physical factors at the 240 months of
this study: SA and GMA were correlated at r = 0.50, p <
0.0001; SA and CRA (Neutron) activity were inverse
related at r = -0.85, p < 0.0001 and, the same way, GMA
and CRA (Neutron) activity at r = -0.66, p < 0.0001, a
remembrance that SA and GMA serve as a shield for our
planet fro m CRA.
Table s 1 and 2 present the results for total deaths and
all subgroups for all fatalities and, separate, for each
gender, and dynamics of IHD/CVA monthly ratio at the
studied 240 months. Table 3 includes data for On cology
deaths. Table 4—for deaths related to DM. Table 5 pre-
sents results of multifactor analysis, prediction models.
Some facts emerge observing the results: yearly drop in
deaths number from IHD and S u i c i d e .
A growing role of Stroke in Cardiovascular mortality
related deaths that is very significant at rise, in compari-
son with fatalities from IHD.
It’s a sudden change in Suicide relationship with stu-
died physical factors that were very clear and impressive
from1990 until 2005, loosing significan ce at 2007-2008.
A relative weak relationship of the studied physical fac-
tors are seen for IHD (most patients dying at home with
poor verification of the event). The IHD relationship is
undergoing some change in the multifactor analysis sec-
tion, but demands attention in the chapter discussing the
results of this study.
Between the physical factors studied the role of CRA
(Neutron) activity is remarkable. The interaction of CRA
with SA is following most of the observed death groups
and is emerging as a principal factor of environmental
forces regulating role in human homeostasis.
This long term study confirms results of a number of
previous ob servations on links between timing of hu man
death and environmental physical factors [8-15].
Results of this study are also reflecting the drop in
IHD mortality in the last years [16].
IHD relationship with the mentioned physical factors in
this study is clearer in the multifactor analysis part of the
study. In this study IHD links with the physical factors are
less prominent than in many studies related to Acute
Myocardial Infarction (AMI), Sudden Cardiac Death
(SCD), Cardiac Arrhythmia and other cardiovascular
emergencies [17-27]. This can be explained by the fact
that most of deaths in this group occurred at home and the
verification of the cause of death was not satisfactory.
This was confirmed by a group of physicians in the region
were the data was collected: a great part of deaths oc-
curred at time of alcohol intoxication; heart failure related
deaths were also included in this group [28]. Better con-
trolled studies of deaths in patients admitted to hospital
and pathogenesis components of deaths from IHD (AMI,
VT, VF related SCD, other for ms of Cardiac Arrhyth mia
and Acute Cardiac Events) show highly significant rela-
tionship by timing with the level of CRA (Neutron) ac-
tivity, SA and GMA [10-12,22-28 ].
Studies published in the XX century mostly concen-
trated on SA, GMA [8,10,1 1,12,14].
CRA activity related studies came later.
It was shown that blood coagulation and inflammation
indices are higher on high (active, stormy) GMA levels
[14,22,23,25]. But extremely high (stormy) GMA days
are a rare phenomena. In the last 25 years they were reg-
istered only at 3.5% - 6.5% of days, at average, in 25
years (since 1983) 4.38% of such days yearly (400 days
E. Stoupel et al. / J. Biomedical Science and Engineering 4 (2011) 426-434
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E. Stoupel et al. / J. Biomedical Science and Engineering 4 (2011) 426-434
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. JBiSE
E. Stoupel et al. / J. Biomedical Science and Engineering 4 (2011) 426-434
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. JBiSE
Tabl e 3. Oncology deaths and monthly cosmophysical activity.
Lithuania, 1989-2009 (252 months).
Parameters Total M F
Year 0.67 0.515 0.62
< 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001
0.11 N.S. 0.133
Month /1-12/ 0.08 0.039
-0.39 -0.35 -0.295
Sunspot No. < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001
-0.39 -0.35 -0.3
Smoothed Sunspot N o. < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001
-0.33 -0.3 -0.246
Solar Flux < 0.0001 < 0.0001 0.0001
-0.335 -0.3 -0.25
Adjusted Solar Flux < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0,0001
-0.29 -0.28 -0.19
Ap. < 0,0001 0.0001 0.003
-0.31 -0.29 -0.235
Cp. < 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002
-0.29 -0.28 -0.205
Am. < 0.0001 0.0001 0.0014
Cosmic Ray:
0.33 0.32 0.23
Moscow < 0.000 1 < 0.0001 0.0029
0.34 0.33 0.23
Oulu < 0.0001 < 0.0001 0.0023
Deaths No. 154311 86767 67544
of high active-stormy-IV0 GMA activity in 25 years).
Most of days (about 42%) are at the weakest—Quiet
GMA, accompanied by their antagonist-higher CRA
(Neutron) activity [1,3].
So, despite the recognition of the “equilibrium para-
digm in clinical cosmobiology” [13]—inverse action of
SA, GMA and CRA on our planet and humans, most of
days (in the last decades) are under low GMA and higher
CRA (Neutron) activity influence.
Neutron activity, as it follows from many studies pub-
lished in recent years, [18-21,28-33] is one of the leading
physical powers [34-36] and is linked with the timing of
human death.
The universal (not only limited to cardiovascular pa-
thology) role of this factor can be seen in the results of
timing of Oncology deaths. Here the heart standstill is
only a final step of different groups of different patholo-
gies and localizations [26]; this is also presented as a part
of this study related to Oncology.
The group of Total deaths, Stroke related and other
death groups also show significant connections with
CRA-Neutron activity.
A very strong change is seen in the monthly IHD/
Stroke related deaths ratio since 1990. The role of Stroke
is becoming more and more important with the time, and
its prevention and treatment needs more and more atten-
tion by the health au thorities in the coming years. Stroke
development includes many pathogenesis mechanisms;
some are similar to IHD natural history (the role of lipids,
high blood pressure, thrombosis, embolism, atrial fibril-
lation etc.), but in the Stroke deaths group the correlation
with the studied cosmophysical factors are much more
clear [10,12,14,17,22-25]. Maybe more deaths taking
place in hospital, better medical documentation and less
diagnostic errors were factors making the Stroke related
data much stronger related to environmental physical
activity in this study.
It's remarkable the domination of woman in both (IHD,
Stroke) groups, what is not specific for Western countries,
but is widely seen in Eastern Europe, were men life ex-
pectancy is much shorter than woman [38] (64 for men,
74 for woman in Lithuania), and men deaths are concen-
trated in specific parts of pathology (accidents, traffic
accidents, alcoholism and alcohol overuse related deaths,
suicide etc.). [30,31,38]. This study is an additional con-
firmation of these studies.
We must also put attention on the group of Suicides, a
cause of deaths that Lithuania was one of the leaders in
the last decades [30,31]. Until year 2005 (since 1990) it
was a very clear relationship of monthly Suicide related
deaths number and the studied physical factors [30,31].
In the last couple of years it was.
1) A yearly drop in the number of Suicides;
2) A much weaker link with the studied physical fac-
3) All this was occurring together with massive emi-
gration (more than 10% of the total population, first of
all, the social unwell, relatively young (18-34 y. old)
population-predominantly unemployed, to Western Europe
(Ireland, UK, Spain and other). This population was the
biggest reserve for Suicide, but not from other causes
[39]. In our opinion it can explain some of the observed
changes in the last couple of years in this death group.
For example at 1990-2005 the yearly Suicide deaths
number yearly was still significantly rising (p = 0.02),
Correlation with SA close to r = -05, p < 0.0001; with
CRA (Neutron) activity, r = 0.31, p < 0.0001. At 1990-
2007 not significant yearly relatio nship of Suicide deaths
number was seen, still significant, but weaker, with SA
(inverse) and CRA (Neutron) activity. In this study
(1990-2009) a yearly drop in death number from Sui-
cides (r = -0.20, p = 0.0019) and all long time observed
relationship with the physical factors disappeared.
Considering the way of Neutron action on the path-
ways of Cardiac Arrhythmia, the damage of coronary
artery plaque's in AMI and some cellular damage in other
E. Stoupel et al. / J. Biomedical Science and Engineering 4 (2011) 426-434
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. JBiSE
Ta b le 4 . Monthly deaths distribution from diabetes mellites (dm) links with environmental physical activity. Lithuania,
Deaths of Diabetes Mellites Patients
Parameter Male Female All Lithuania
Total Death Number
0.31 0.35 0.44
Year p < 0.0001 p < 0.0001 p < 0.0001 N.S.
Month N.S N.S. N.S.
p = 0.0036
-0.16 -0.15 -0.202 -0.35
Sunspot No. p = 0.01 p = 0.02 p = 0.0016 p < 0.0001
-0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.33
Smoothed Sunspot Number p = 0.01 p = 0.02 p = 0.02 p < 0.0001
-0.15 -0.12 -0.15 -0.29
Solar Flux 2800MGH 10.7 cm p = 0.1 p = 0.059 p = 0.02 p < 0.0001
-0.11 -0.13 -0.16 -0.32
Adjusted Solar Flux p = 0.08 p = 0.04 p = 0. 01 p < 0.0001
GMA Indices:
Ap. N.S. N.S. N.S. N.S.
Cp. N.S. N.S. N.S. N.S.
Am. N.S. N.S. N.S. N.S.
CRA—Neutron Activity (imp./min.) 0.32
Oulu N.S. N.S. N.S. p < 0.0001
Moscow N.S. N.S. N.S.
p < 0.0001
Death Number 2152 3134 5417 850304
Table 5. Prediction of monthly deaths distribution links with environmental physical activity. Lithuania, 1990-2009.
Variable Estimate Std. Error p-ValueVariable EstimateStd. Error p-Value
Total Suicide
Intercept 29273.0 8572.5 0.0008
Intercept 3057.6 805.9 0.0002
Year -12.914 4.296 0.0029
Year -1.4 0.55 0.0008
Month -21.0823 5.889 0.0004
Sunspot No. 0.407 0.17 0.018
Sunspot No. -9.387 1.818 < 0,0001 Solar Flux -0.688 0.161 < 0.0001
Solar Flux 6.485 1.74 0.0002 Cosmic Ray 0.07 0. 0178 < 0,0001
IHD Non Cardiovascular
Intercept 71735.0 7337.4 < 0.0001Intercept -33714.0 7504.1 < 0.0001
Year -35.39 3.68 < 0.0001Year 17.83 3.75 < 0.0001
Month -14.67 3.74 0.0001
Sunspot No. -2.13 0.29 < 0.0001
Sunspot No. 5.9 45 1.002 < 0.0001Ap. 7.62 2.39 0.0017
Solar Flux 5.37 0.96 < 0.0 0 0 1Diabetes Mellitus
Stroke Intercept -833.5 124.3 < 0.0001
Intercept -4947.7 1286.2 0.0002 Year 0.44 0.062 < 0.0001
Year 2.527 0.641 0.0001
Sunspot No. -0.025 0.011 0.0223
Month -3.738 0.858 < 0.0001 Cosmic Ray -0.0043 0.0013 0.0007
Sunspot No. -0.89 0.272 0.0013
Solar Flux 0.997 0.257 0.0001
Cosmic Ray 0.061 0. 023 0.01
Intercept -15737.0 1734.6 < 0.0001
Year 8.505 0.868 < 0.0001
Month 3.308 1.24 0.0086
Sunspot No. -1.24 0.153 < 0,0001
Cosmic Ray -0.145 0.017 < 0.0001
Traffic Accidents
Intercept 4529.1 469.5 < 0.0001
Year -2.205 0.239 < 0.0001
Month 4.045 0.3569 < 0.0001
Cosmic Ray -0.011 0.0033 0.0009
E. Stoupel et al. / J. Biomedical Science and Engineering 4 (2011) 426-434
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. JBiSE
cases, we can presume one of the Neutron acting ways is
ability to invade human tissue proportional to hydrogen
atoms presence there, interaction with H+ (41) (a radical
that lipids and vulnerable atheroma's—plaque's are rich)
and transformation of Neutrons to Protons, that attack
cell nuclei and damage tissues [40,41,42].
An additional way of SA effects can be particles ar-
riving with the Solar wind and their effects on enzymes
and their function [43]. Changes in the enzyme function
can also change the normal metabolism and provoke
unexpected reaction of the human body, immunologic
changes that are described for changes in SA and GMA
[44,45]. This can bring to pathologic responses of the
human organism to usually “normal” triggers. The way
GMA is affecting blood coagulation (platelet aggrega-
tion, count, fibrinogen level etc.), inflammation (C- Re-
active Protein) and many immunologic mechanisms
(immunoglobulins, phospholipids) are published [14,
The World epidemics of Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is
sober represented by death number in this study. An ex-
planation for the relative small numbers of DM related
victims can be a long complications list. in the natural
history of DM. They often serve as immediate cause of
death-Hypertension, Renal failure, Vascular occlusions
in the heart, brain, Peripheral vascular disease and di-
minish the numb er of D M related deaths.
It's also known about circannual rhythms in deaths
distribution concentratin g (in the Middle Latitud es of the
Northern hemisphere): most IHD and CVA deaths occur
in the winter (February) months, traffic accidents victims
at the late autumn-start of winter and suicide acrophase
in the summer (June-July) [46]. This is shown in the
monthly deaths disposition (1-12) included in this study.
A great step forward understanding the origin of high
energy CRA was made in recent publications (2007),
connecting them with close to our galaxy, but extraga-
lactic, black hole radiation [47].
It seems that life is o ptimal when the environ ment is at
moderate activity level that prevents the me ntioned factors
not to achieve critical levels for human health. It's espe-
cially important for the sick and el derly popul ation.
100 years after A. Tchizhevsky formulated the possi-
bilities of Solar influences on human life [48], Clinical
Cosmobiology, using the achievements of Space explo-
ration and data computerization presents new data for
understanding the nature of physical environment effects
on human life and death—a part of life. Here we can
quote A. Einstein word s “The Human will is free only in
bounds of a determined cosmic system” [49].
Solar and Cosmic Ray (Neutron) activity remain sig-
nificantly connected with monthly deaths distribution in
the last two decades.
The role of Stroke related deaths is rising. Prevention
and treatment deserve more attention.
Geomagnetic activity, remarkable at daily account at
extreme levels is less important in monthly studies be-
cause rare high level activity occurrence.
Gender differences are seen. In woman seasonality of
death is more expressed than in men.
The clarification of the mechanisms of action of cos-
mophysical factors on humans and biological objects
deserve additional studies.
The presented data support the view that the optimal
situation for human health is concomitant with moderate
levels of antagonistic environmental physical forces.
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