International Journal of Intelligence Science, 2013, 3, 162-169
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijis.2013.34017 Published Online October 2013 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijis)
A Data Mining Model by Using ANN for Predicting Real
Estate Market: Comparative Study
Itedal Sabri Hashim Bahia
Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Baghdad, Iraq
Received July 31, 2013; revised August 29, 2013; accepted September 7, 2013
Copyright © 2013 Itedal Sabri Hashim Bahia. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
ABSTRACT
This paper aims to demonstrate the importance and possible value of housing predictive power which provides inde-
pendent real estate market forecasts on home prices by using data mining tasks. A (FFBP) network model and (CFBP)
network model are one of th ese tasks used in th is research to compare results of them. We estimate the median value of
owner occupied homes in Boston suburbs given 13 neighborhood attributes. An estimator can be found by fitting the
inputs and targets. This d ata set has 506 samples. “ousing inputs” is a 13 × 506 matrix. The “housing targets” is a 1 ×
506 matrix of median values of owner-occupied homes in $1000’s. The result in this paper concludes that which one of
the two networks appears to be a better indicator of the output data to target data network structure than maximizing
predict. The CFBP network which is the best result from th e Output_network for all samples are found from the equa-
tion output = 0.95 * Target + 1.2. The regression value is approximately 1, (R = 0.964). That means the Output_network
is matching to the target da ta set (Median value of owner-occup ied homes in $1000 ’s), and th e percent corr ectly predict
in the simulation sample is 96%.
Keywords: Cascade Forward Back Propagation (CFBP); Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP); Data Mining; House
Price
1. Introduction
Today r eal estate market has become very popular. Though
the near future of real estate is still in question, investors
have been hungry for a fast way to play the market or to
hedge against their volatile portfolios. Futures contracts
have been an extremely popular method of balancing a
portfolio in other markets, and real estate is, with a little
knowledge, now in the same boat [1].
Futures contracts that trade at a centralized exchange
allow market participants more financial leverage and
flexibility and are guaranteed by the exch ange so there is
no risk of counterparty default. They are also in and of
themselves leveraged investments, which allow investors a
way to benefit on movements in housing prices as well as
provide them with the opportu nity for a liquid short-term
real estate investment. These futures also allow investors
a way to speculate on housing prices with much lower
capital requirements [1]. An accurate prediction on the
house price is important to prospective homeowners,
developers, investors, appraisers, tax assessors and other
real estate market participants, such as, mortgage lenders
and insurers [2]. Traditional house price prediction is
based on cost and sale price comparison lacking of an
accepted standard and a certification process. Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) is a neurobiological inspired
paradigm that emulates the functioning of the brain based
on the way that neurons work, because they are recog-
nized as the cellular elements responsible for the brain
information processing [3]. ANN models can detect pat-
terns that relate input variables to their corresponding
outputs in complex biological systems for prediction [4].
Methods for improving network performance include
finding an optimum network architecture and appropriate
number of training cycles, using different input combina-
tions [5]. Therefore, the av ailability of a house price pre-
diction model helps fill up an important information gap
and improves the efficiency of the real estate market [6].
2. Related Works
The quest for patterns in data has been studied for a long
time in many fields, including statistics, patterns recogni-
tion and exploratory data analysis [7,8]. Analyzing data
can provide further knowledge about a business by go ing
beyond the data explicitly stored to derive knowledge
C
opyright © 2013 SciRes. IJIS

I. S. H. BAHIA 163
about the business. This is where data mining has obvi-
ous benefits for any enterprise. Data mining, also called
Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), is the field
of discovering novel and potentially useful information
from large amounts of data. Data mining has been ap-
plied in a great number of fields, including retail sales,
bioinformatics, and counterterrorism. In recent years,
there has been increasing interest in the use of data min-
ing to investigate scientific questions within educational
research, an area of inquiry termed educational data
mining. [9] The stages involved in data mining as in fig-
ure [10]. There are many research that related works with
this paper.
Dongsong Zhang and Lina Zhou [11], they are de-
scribing data mining in the context of financial applica-
tion from both technical and application perspectives. In
addition, we compare different data mining techniques
and discuss important data mining issues involved in
specific financial applications. Finally, we highlight a
number of challenges and trends for future research in
this area.
G. Grudnitski, A. Quang Do and J. D. Shilling [7],
they are applying a neural network analysis to supply
evidence that answers this question. they find evidence
that the characteristics of a borrower’s net worth, marital
status and education level and whether a co borrower is
involved contribute in a significant way to the neural
network's ability to determine mortgage choice.
Kaihla, Paul, Copeland, Michael V., Ha wn, Carleen,
Lappin, Todd, Lev-Ram, Michal, Sloan, Paul [12],
they are presents information related to the current status
of real estate in the U.S. The nationwide housing slump
was most evident with the fact that the median sales price
for existing U.S. homes slipped to $225,000 in August
2006. It is however opined that the impact of housing
downturn on the American residential real estate assets
will not be much extensive.
Kontrimas, Vilius; Verikas, Antanas [13], used the
ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression is the clas-
sical method used to build models in this approach. The
method is compared with computational intelligence ap-
proaches-support vector machine (SVM) regression,
multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a committee of pre-
dictors. The performance of the committee using the
weights based on zones obtained from the SOM was also
higher than of that exploiting the real estate value zones
provided by the Register center.
Landers, Jay [14], produce offers information on the
market forecasts for the nonresidential construction sec-
tor in the US in 2008. A report titled “Construction Out-
look 2008,” by the company McGraw-Hill Construction
says that more rigid lending standards have begun to af-
fect commercial real estate and have reduced the volume
of property purchases. According to a forecast by FMI
Corp., there will be a marginally better result for total
construction in 2008.
Ruben D. Jaen [15], is presents the insights gained
from applying data mining techniques, in particular neu-
ral networks for the purp oses of develop ing an intelligen t
model used to predict real estate property values based
on variety of factors. A dataset of over one thousand
transactions in real estate properties was used. The data-
set included 15 variables obtained from the multiple list-
ing system (MLS) database and captured information on
transactions taking place during a period of three years.
The results from applying data mining techniques to pre-
dict real estate values are promising. Future plans and
recommendations for further expanding the study are
given.
Sean Zdenek [16], suggest, produces AI systems by
rhetorical means; it does not merely describe AI systems
or reflect a set of prevailing attitudes about technology.
To support this argument, I analyses a set of research
articles about an “embodied conversational agent” called
the Real Estate Agent (REA).
3. Methodologies/Data Mining Process
3.1. Data Preparations
The data was created by a house price as a data set to test
the data mining intelligent system, which will perform
the predict system. A data is available from the UCI
Machine Learning Repository in Irvine, CA: University
of California, Department of Information and Computer
Science, and the StatLib library which is maintained at
Carnegie Mellon University. The main idea was to con-
struct the neural network model by using two types of
neural networks first feed forward neural network, sec-
ond Cascade forward neural network, and compare to
find the best perform predict house price. For better un-
derstanding of the problem let us consider definitions of
house price. A house price is characterized by Median
value of owner-occupied homes in $1000’s as a target
values. This dataset contains 13 predicting variables in
506 numbers of samples. Table 1 presents the variables
of data which are considered as 13 predicting variables.
3.2. Data Selection and Transformation
The study of feature selection finds its practical in ma-
chine learning in which a learn ing algorithm constructs a
description of a function from a set of input/output in-
stances through the in teraction with the world [17].
In this step set of samples (records) and variables
(fields) are selected which were required for data mining.
All the predictor and response variables which were de-
rived for the data mining activity are presented in Figure
1.

I. S. H. BAHIA 164
Figure 1. The steps of extracting knowledge from data [10].
Table 1. Predicting variables of data.
No variables
1- per capita crime rate by town
2- Proportion of residential land zoned for lots over 25,000 sq.ft.
3- proportion of non -retail busin ess acres per town
4- Charles River dummy variable
(=1 if tract bounds river; 0 otherwi se)
5- nitric oxides concentration (parts per 10 million)
6- average number of rooms per dwelling
7- proportion of owner-occupied u n it s b ui l t p ri o r to 1 9 4 0
8- weighted distances t o five Boston employment centers
9- index of accessibility to radial highways
10- full-value property-tax rate per $ 10 ,000
11- pupil-teacher ratio by town
12- 1000 (Bk - 0.63)2 wher e Bk is th e proportion of blacks by town
13- % lower status of the population
Figure 2. Typical ne ur al networks [19].
tion that transforms the sum of the weighted inputs and
bias to decide the value of the output from computational
unit [18].
In supervised training, we present a pattern to the neu-
ral network, it makes a prediction, and we compare the
predicted output to the desired output. Thus we have ex-
plicit information about the performance of the network.
The major parameters used in supervised training have to
do with how the error is computed and how big a step we
take when adjusting the connection weights in the direc-
tion of the desired output [20].
3.3. Artificial Neural Network
Neural network is an artificial intelligence model origin-
nally designed to replicate the human brain’s learning
process. The model consists of three main layers: input
data layer (example the property attributes), hidden
layer(s) (commonly referred as “black box”), and output
layer [18]. Neural network is an interconnected network
of artificial neurons with a rule to adjust the strength or
weight of the connections between the units in response
to externally supplied data Figure 2 [18,19]. Each artifi-
cial neuron (or computational unit) has a set of input
connections that receive signals from other computa-
tional units and a bias adjustment, a set of weights for
input connection and bias adjustment, and transfer func-
Learning rate almost all neural network models have a
learning rate parameter associated with them. In a typical
supervised training case, a pattern is presented to the
neural network; it makes an incorrect prediction, and the
difference between the desired output and the actual
output is used to adjust the weights [20].
There are many applications where prediction can help in
setting priorities. For example, the emergency room at a
hospital can be a hectic place. To know who needs the
most time critical help can enable a more successful op-
eration. Basically, all organizations must establish priori-
ties which govern the allocation of their resources. This

I. S. H. BAHIA 165
projection of the future is what drove the creation of
networks of pr ediction [2 1] .
3.3.1. The ANN (FFBP) Network
Feed forward networks often have one or more hidden
layers of sigmoid neurons followed by an output layer of
linear neurons. Multiple layers o f neurons with nonlinear
transfer functions allow the network to learn nonlinear
and linear relationships between input and output vectors.
The linear output layer lets the network produce values
outside the range –1 to +1. The first step in training a
feed forward network is to create the network object. It
requires three arguments and returns the network object.
The first argument is a matrix of input vectors. The sec-
ond argument is a matrix of target vectors. The sample
inputs and outputs are used to set up network input and
output dimensions and parameters. The third argument is
an array containing the sizes of each hidden layer. (The
output layer size is determined from the targets.) [22,23].
The typical and structure of the feed forward network is
show in the Figures 3 and 4.
3.3.2. The ANN (CFBP) Network
The cascade forward network, these are similar to feed
forward network, but include a weight connection from
the input to each layer and from each layer to the succes-
sive layers. For example, a three-layer network has con-
nections from layer 1 to layers 2, layer 2 to layer 3, and
layer 1 to layer 3. The three-layer network also has con-
nections from the input to all three layers. The additional
connections might improve the speed at which the net-
work learns the desired relationship [21,22]. CF artificial
intelligence model is similar to feedforward backpropa-
gation neural network in using the backpropagation algo-
Figure 3. Typical FFBP.
Figure 4. The structure of the feed forward back propaga-
tion network.
rithm for weights updating, but the main symptom of th is
network is that each layer of neurons related to all previ-
ous layer of neurons [20]. Tan-sigmoid transfer function,
log-sigmoid transfer function and pure linear threshold
functions were used to reach the optimized status [22,23].
The performance of cascade forward backpropagation
and feedforward backpropagation were evaluated using
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) Equation (1), Mean
Square Error (MSE) Equation (2) and R2 Equation (3)
technique.
2
exp
2 1exp
Ncal
XX
MSE X


 



 





 (1)
2
exp
1
1Ncal
XX
RMSE nn





 





 (2)
2
exp
22
1exp
1Ncal
XX
RX






 
 





 (3)
where, Xexp = Observed value; X
cal = Predicted value;
Xexp =Mean predicted value; n = Number of observations
in dataset. MSE, RMSE) and R2 were used in order to
compare the prediction performance of the developed
models. The best score for R2 measure is 1 and for other
measures is zero. The typical and structure of the cascade
forward network is show in the Figures 5 and 6.
Cascade Forward Back Propagation CFBP is similar to
FFBP network in using the BP algorithm for weights up-
Figure 5. Cascade-forward ANN.
Figure 6. The structure of the cascade forward back
propagation network.

I. S. H. BAHIA 166
dating, but the main sy mptom o f this network is th at each
layer neurons relates to all previous layer neurons.
4. Results
4.1. Relative Importance of Inputs
We first discuss the results obtained from the two neural
networks modeling to predict the housing price. The
neural networks were created using the neural network
toolbox from Matlab 7.9. Training network automatically
stops when generalization stops improving, as indicated
by an increase in the mean square error (MSE) of the
validation samples. The results of apply by using the
artificial neural networks methodology to predict be-
tween input data (actual data) and target data. The dataset
were divided 80% for training, and 20% for testing.
Weights and biases were randomly initialized. The net-
work was trained with up to 100 epochs. Weight is in-
formation used by neural network to solve a problem. In
neural network analysis the results, depending on value
of house price is performed, we have three figures for
each neural network model, Figures 7-9 for FFBP neural
network and Figures 10-12 fo r CF B P n eural netw ork.
We will focus on which one of those neural network
model is best to improving the neural network predict
performance for house price. Table 2 gives the training,
validation, and test predicting performance of the FFBP
neural network model. It shows measures of regression
Figure 7. The regression values between the actual value and target values (FFBP).

I. S. H. BAHIA 167
Figure 8. The best validation performance (MSE) at 82 ep-
ochs (FFBP).
Figure 9. The training states for FFBP network.
Figure 10. The regression values between the actual value and target values (CFBP).

I. S. H. BAHIA 168
Figure 11. The best validation performance (MSE) at 14
epochs (CFBP).
Figure 12. The training states for CFBP network.
Table 2. FFBP network statistics.
Type Value Equation
R.-training 0.98 Output = 0.94Target + 1.2
R-validation 0.92 Output = 0.82Target + 4.1
R-test 0.841 Output = 0.8Target + 4.6
Gradient 0.681
Mu 1
(R), training state (Gradient, Mu, and validation) and the
best validation performance (MSE) is 13.583 at epoch
82.The statistics shows the measure of performance of
the network with regard to the input variables presented
to it. The regression of all samples of data set is 0.94 in
epoch 88 and the predict values are obtained from the
equation Output = 0.89Target + 2.6 in Figure 5. The
FFBP values obtained from the network in epoch 88 it-
erations is presented in Table 2.
Table 3 gives the training, validation, and test pre-
dicting performance of the CFBP neural network model.
It shows measures of R, training state (Gradient, Mu, and
validation) and the best validation performance (MSE) is
9.533 at epoch 14. The statistics shows the measure of
performance of the network with regard to the input
variables presented to it. The regression in the Table 3
for all samples of data set is 0.96 in epoch 20 and the
predict values are obtained from the equation Output =
0.96Target +1.2 in Figure 8. The CFBP values obtained
from the network in epoch 20 iterations is presented in
Table 3.
4.2. Discussion of Results
As can be observed from the results in the Tables 2 and
3, models with Cascade Forward Back Propagation neu-
ral network structure gives the best results because the
validation performance value (MSE) mean square error is
less than of the validation performance value (MSE) of
Feed Forward Back Propagation neural network.
The regression graph is getting it from the scatter plot
in Figure 10, the relation between the output and the
target. Output_network for all samples are result from the
equation Output = 0.95Target + 1.2. The regression value
is approximately 1, R = 0.964. That mean the output_
network is matching to the target data set (Median value
of owner-occupied homes in $1000’s), and the percent
correctly predict in the simulation sample is 96%.
5. Conclusion
An accurate prediction on the housing price is important
to prospective homeowners and everything belongs to a
real estate market. Data mining has come out of the re-
search lab and into the real world to do just such tasks.
The FFBP and CFBP neural networks are one of these
tasks used to predict housing price and compare the re-
sult between them. When apply the CFBP neural net-
works methodology to predict h ousing price, the result is
better in CFBP network in the predicting based upon
selected parameters, showing abilities of the network to
Table 3. CFBP network statistics.
type valueEquation
R.-training 0.99 Output = 0.96Target + 0.85
R-validation 0.931 Output = 0.93Target + 1.4
R - test 0.922 Output =0.91Target + 2.1
Gradient 2.525
Mu 10

I. S. H. BAHIA 169
learn the patterns, and in the CFBP structure each layer
neuron relates to all previous layer neurons that give for
CFBP network more training to adjust the weight and
gives accurate predict results depending on the output of
network that matches the target. Artificial neural net-
works showing significant results on housing price pre-
diction in the simulation samples is above 96%.
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