International Journal of Geosciences, 2012, 3, 379-390
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2012.32042 Published Online May 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/ijg)
Analysis of Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of
Eastern China, against the Background of Global
Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years: Case Study
of Shandong Peninsula, China
Qing Tian1, Qing Wang1, Chao Zhan1, Xiguo Li2, Xueping Liu3
1Coast Institute, Ludong University, Yantai, China
2Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Yantai, China
3Yantai Meteorological Bureau, Yantai, China
Received December 20, 2011; revised February 16, 2012; accepted March 15, 2012
ABSTRACT
The climate change in Shandong Peninsula, China was analyzed in this paper by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test,
Accumulated Difference Curve and Order Cluster Analysis methods, based upon the datas of annual mean, maximum
and minimum temperature and annual precipitation, precipitation from June to September over the past 50 years. Re-
sults obtained showed a number of observations: 1) The annual mean temperature of Shandong Peninsula showed a
significant increasing trend, with a distinct abrupt change point detected around 1990, during the past 5 decades. The
warming of the Peninsula over the last 50 years was due mainly to the significant increase of annual minimum tem-
perature. The annual maximum temperature demonstrated a mixed trend of decreasing and increasing, but was statisti-
cally insignificant, and no abrupt change was detected; 2) The annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend during
the past 5 decades, with an abrupt change detected around 1980 at most stations; but there was an earlier transition point
at 1966, at a few stations. The reduction in precipitation, from June to September, was responsible mainly for the de-
crease of annual precipitation. Besides, the proportion of the June-September precipitation in the year declined slightly
over the last 50 years; 3) In comparison, the temperature evolution in Shandong Peninsula was basically consistent with
most parts of China, but warmed at a faster rate over the same period; the decreasing trend of precipitation was more
significant compared with the other climate zones of China. Within the Peninsula, the abrupt change of temperature and
precipitation in the Southeast was earlier than that in the Northwest; the reduction of precipitation was larger in the
Southeast while the increase of temperature was more significant in the Northwest. This research was of great impor-
tance to understand the climate change and its environmental effects in the coastal zone.
Keywords: Abrupt Change; Climate Change; Shandong Peninsula in China; The Last Fifty Years; Coastal Zone
1. Introduction
Climate is an integral part of natural environment that
humans depend upon for survival; global climate change
has become a hot issue, and attracted the common con-
cern of governments and scientists. Global climate change,
especially global warming has been a scientific fact that
not can be avoided during the past 100 years [1-7]. The
global average surface temperature has increased 0.74˚C
during the 20th Century (1906-2005) according to IPCC
(2007). The coastal zone is the narrow strip located be-
tween land and sea. As the most developed region which
is densely populated, the climate change in the coastal
zone has a special significance to the development of hu-
man society [8,9]. Additionally, the coastal zone in-
volved in this article represents the interface between
land, sea and the atmosphere, and there exists frequent
exchange of moisture, heat fluxes, sediment, and impor-
tant nutrient elements like C, N, S between land and sea;
also, the coastal wetland ecosystem affects the concen-
tration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, like CH4,
CO2 and water vapor [10]. Thus, the climate change in
the coastal zone will have a profound impact on global
climate change. However, climate change in the coastal
zone is not only affected by global climate change, also,
it has its particular patterns inevitably, as the coastal cli-
mate suffers the combined effect of atmosphere circu-
lation from the continent and the ocean, and there exists
two underlying surfaces of ocean and land which have
totally different thermal properties in the coastal zone
C
opyright © 2012 SciRes. IJG

Q. TIAN ET AL. 380
[11]. Therefore, climate change in the coastal zone de-
serves further research.
China is situated in the Eastern Eurasia, which borders
on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean, with a coastline
of more than 18,000 km. The east coast of China compri-
ses an area of 3 million km2, and stretches across the
tropical, subtropical and temperate zone, from south to
north [12]. More than 41% of the national population,
50% of the large and medium-sized cities are located in
the coastal zone of China, and it account for more than
60% of the gross domestic productivity (GDP) [13], so
the coastal development in China plays a leading role in
the national economy. Affected by the different thermal
properties of the largest continent and ocean, the east
coast of China is dominated by a typical East Asian mon-
soon climate [14,15]. In this paper, climate change in the
eastern coastal zone during the last 50 years was analy-
zed taking Shandong Peninsula, which is located in the
temperate zone of Eastern China, as an example, to fur-
ther reveal the temperate monsoon climate evolution un-
der global climate change. Therefore, this research is not
only of great importance to understand climate change
and its environmental effects in the coastal zone, but also
has important practical value for us to cope with global
change, to achieve regional sustainable development, and
to implement the planning of the blue economic zone in
Shandong Peninsula particularly.
2. Study Area
Located on the east of Jiaolai River, which connected
Laizhou Bay and Jiaozhou Bay, and extended eastward
between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, Shandong
Peninsula is the largest Peninsula in China (35˚35' -
38˚23'N, 119˚30' - 122˚42'E), with an area of 2.7 × 104
km2 (Figure 1). The main landform of the Peninsula was
dominated by old metamorphic, granitic hills, and only a
few medium and low mountains protrude above the hills
with gently rolling topography. Mountainous area accounted
for about 70% of the total area, with an elevation of
about 200 meters. The mountains in the Peninsula, mainly
includes Ya, Kunyu, Weide, Luo et al., was a nearly east-
west strike and was close to the Northern Peninsula.
They were about 500 - 1000 meters above the sea level,
in which, Laoshan Mountain was the highest (1130 m).
Shandong Peninsula has developed a typical temperate
bedrock coast with a winding coastline [14].
Shandong Peninsula was under the control of Siberian-
Mongolian high-pressure air masses from high latitude of
the Eurasian continent in winter, with low air tempera-
ture and humidity, thus dry and cold winter monsoon
from near north was formed; air masses from low latitude
of the Pacific Ocean, with high temperature and humidity
prevailed in summer, warm and wet summer monsoon
from near south was formed consequently. Under the
Figure 1. Location of Shandong Peninsula showing mete-
orological and hydrological stations and background topo-
graphy. The stations are abbreviated as: HY (Haiyang); LZ
(Laizhou); ZY (Zhaoyuan); JQ (Jiuqu); LK (Longkou); PL
(Penglai); LY (Laiyang); MH (Miaohou); MP (Muping);
CLGJ (Celinggaojia); ZJZ (Zangjia zhuang); WW (Wangw u);
SK (Sikou); GL (Guanli);TK (Tiekou); MYSK (Muyushui-
ku); ML (Menlou); TC (Taocun); WD (Wandi); SWP (She-
wopo); JX (Jianxin); FS (Fushan); QX (Qixia) and TW
(Tuanwang).
control of summer monsoon and winter monsoon, Shan-
dong Peninsula has developed a typical humid monsoon
climate of warm temperate zone, the four seasons are
distinct, with hot, rainy summer and cold, dry winter.
Affected significantly by the summer monsoon, the an-
nual precipitation occurs mostly in the summer season,
from June to September, with strong intensity, and is
often accompanied with heavy rains. The annual pre-
cipitation in Shandong Peninsula averages 600 - 850 mm;
the average temperature was –3˚C ~ –1˚C in January, and
about 25˚C in August (the hottest month), the extreme
maximum temperature was about 38˚C, and thus the an-
nual temperature range was large [14].
Affected by the ocean, Shandong Peninsula had an an-
nual precipitation which is 200 - 300 mm more than that
of the continental interior area at the same latitude, toge-
ther with cooler summer. Since Shandong Peninsula was
close to the small-sized Bohai Sea on the northwest and

Q. TIAN ET AL. 381
bordered the vast Yellow Sea on the southeast, mean-
while the mountain ranges in the central Peninsula were a
barrier to prevent the warm and moist air mass from the
Yellow sea penetrating into the Peninsula, and thus the
influence of the ocean to the climate weakened from
southeast to northwest of the Peninsula. For instance, the
annual precipitation decreased from the southeast to the
northwest within Shandong Peninsula, it was above 850
mm in the east side, while less than 600 mm in the coa-
stal plain located in the Northwestern Peninsula [16].
As the frontier area since Chinese Economic Reform,
Shandong Peninsula has become one of the most deve-
loped regions in China during the last 50 years, with a
large population and many cities. The major industrial
companies and cities, like Qingdao, Weihai and Yantai
were all located in the coastal zone (Figure 1). Since the
meteorological stations set up in these cities were more
likely affected by urban climate conditions, the hydrolo-
gical and meteorological data from the central Peninsula
were chosen here to investigate the relationship between
the coastal climate of the Peninsula and global climate
change.
3. Methodology
3.1. Data
It was generally acknowledged that human activities be-
gan to have a notable impact on climate since 1950’s [2],
and taking into account the availability of the data, the
last 50 years was selected as the study period.
In this paper, the observation data of temperature and
precipitation from hydrological and meteorological sta-
tions in the central Peninsula were used to analyze the
climate change in Shandong Peninsula for the last 50
years. In which, the precipitation data employed were
from 18 hydrological stations, including two indicators
of the annual precipitation and precipitation from June to
September, and the observation period was from 49 to 58
years (52 years in average); the temperature data includ-
ing 3 indicators, the annual mean, maximum and mini-
mum temperature respectively, were from 8 meteoro-
logical stations. The observation period was from 44 to
58 years (53 years in average). All of the stations men-
tioned above are the National Basic Weather Stations,
and the observation data are continuous data records for
the period of the last 50 years, of good quality. As the
temperate monsoon climate in the Peninsula is charac-
terized by the synchronization of high temperature and
ample precipitation, the 5 climate indicators selected in
this paper were the best to reflect its climatic characteris-
tics. The location of the stations was shown in Figure 1.
3.2. Methods
In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test [17-
20], Accumulated Difference Curve [18] and Order Clus-
ter Analysis (OCA) [21] were applied, to identify the
long-term trend and the abrupt change of both precipita-
tion and temperature series in Shandong Peninsula during
the last 50 years. The Mann-Kendall test was first used to
describe the general change trend for the climatic indica-
tors. An Accumulated Difference Curve method was em-
ployed next to analyze the periodical fluctuation of the
climate element series. Finally, the transition point of the
series was detected by OCA, a method to find the opti-
mal dividing point of the time-series. All of the tests
were under the 95% confidence level in this paper, and
were calculated by Matlab software.
3.2.1. Mann- Kendall Test
Mann-Kendall test is a non-parametric method, it has the
advantage of not assuming any distribution form for the
data series, the test capacity is not affected by the break-
point, and is more powerful than its parametric competi-
tors. Therefore, it is highly recommended by the World
Meteorological Organization to assess the monotonic
trend in hydro-meteorological time-series. This test is
based on the null hypothesis Ho, which supposes that the
analyzed series are independent and randomly ordered,
and there is no obvious change trend. The test statistics:
Zc and β are stated simply as follows.
1) Parameter Zc reflects the general change trend of
the series. For the analyzed series (x1, x2 xn)


10
var
0
10
var
SS
S
Zc
SS
S










0

(1)
In which,

1
11
sign
nn
j
i
iji
x
x
S



 (2)

10
0
sign
10
ji
ji ji
ji
xx
xx xx
xx


0





(3)

 
12 5
var 18
nnn
S
 (4)
Zc follows the standard normal distribution. Therefore,
Ho is rejected if |Zc| ≤ Z1−α/2, which means there is a sig-
nificant change trend for the series (abbreviated as R),
while accepting Ho suggests no obvious trend for the
series (abbreviated as A). Besides, Zc > 0 represents an
upward trend of the series, while Zc < 0 denotes a nega-
tive trend. In which, α is the significance level for the test;
±Z1−α/2 are the standard normal deviates. In this paper, α

Q. TIAN ET AL. 382
= 95% was applied, ±Z1−α/2 = ±1.96.
2) Parameter β is the Kendall gradient, and it is used to
estimate of average change rate of the series. It is based
on the assumption that the change trend of the series is
monotonic, which means the trend is a linear function of
time.

Median 1
ij
xx jin
ij






 (5)
3.2.2. Accumulated Difference Curve
ed difference of For the series (x1, x2…xn), the accumulat
every point was given as:
 
1
1, 2,,
t
ti
i
Xtn
XX



 (6)
In which,
1
1n
i
i
X
X
n
 (7)
Draw the accumulated difference curve according to
the results, the horizontal axis of the curve represents time
(year), and the vertical axis of the curve is


i
x
X
.
An upward gradient of the curve indicates a relatively
high temperature period or a pluvial period; a relatively
cold or dry period conversely. And thus the change
process of the series can be divided into stages with dif-
ferent change trend, and the variation of the trend may be
attributed to the abrupt change of the climatic elements.
3.2.3. Order Clust er An al y sis (OCA)
CA, a method to
was de
The transition point was detected by O
find the optimal dividing point of the time-series. This
method was similar to the cluster analysis, but the se-
quence of the series should not be disrupted. For the se-
ries (x1 xi xj xn) (1 < i < j < n), if the series with
n points ividd into m groups, the optimal dividing
point was obtained as follows:




22 3 11 2
1
,1,,1 ,12,,1
,1,,1, 1,,
kk kmm
ii i ii i
iiii in

  
 
 





,
j
kij kij
ki
Dij
x
xxx



 (8)
1
1
j
ij k
ki
x
x
ji 


(9)
(10)
where k represents the group number, ik is the first sam-
rend of Temperature in Shandong
4.1.
Shandong Peninsula
rature in
Sh
n point
of
re increase in Shandong Peninsula
sh
  
1
1
,1
,
m
kk
k
pDii
mn





ple of group k. The series was divided into 2 groups in
this paper, and thus the point with the minimum φ{p(2,
n)} value will be the optimal dividing point.
4. Results
4.1. Chan g e T
Peninsula over the Past 50 Years
1. Annual Mea n Temperature
The annual mean temperature of
over the past 5 decades exhibited a significant increasing
trend overall. The Mann-Kendall results showed that Ho
was rejected (Table 1), which means the increasing trend
of annual mean temperature series was significant at the
95% significance level. The annual mean temperature of
Shandong Peninsula has increased 1˚C - 2˚C approxi-
mately over the past 5 decades, with an average increas-
ing rate of 0.26˚C - 0.46˚C (10a)−1 (Table 1).
The long-term trend of annual mean tempe
andong Peninsula was characterized by distinct perio-
dical fluctuations over the past 50 years, instead of mo-
notonic increasing trend. The accumulated difference
curves showed that 1990 can be defined as the split point,
to divide the annual mean temperature series into two
periods: a downward trend in the early period and a con-
tinuous increasing trend in the late period (Figure 2(a)).
As a consequence, there may be an abrupt change of an-
nual mean temperature around 1990: it shifted from a re-
latively cool period to a warm period after 1990.
According to the results of OCA, the transitio
annual mean temperature at all stations existed in the
period of 1988-1994, the annual mean temperature in-
creased by 7.52% - 12.21% after the abrupt change (Ta-
ble 2). Therefore, 1990 could be considered as the divid-
ing point on the whole, and the annual mean temperature
increased by about 10% after 1990, over the past 5 de-
cades in Shandong Peninsula. Additionally, as can be
seen from Figure 1 that the stations with more signifi-
cant in creasing rate of annual mean temperature were
mostly located in the northwest of the Peninsula during
the past 50 years.
The temperatu
ould be an active local response to global warming, but
the specific change process and the exact transition point
were not quite the same. The increasing rate of annual
mean temperature for the past 50 years in Shandong Pen-
insula was much higher than that of the entire globe (an
increasing rate of 0.13˚C (10a)–1 from 1906 to 2005) ac-
cording to the IPCC (2007), China (an increasing rate of
0.3˚C (10a)–1 from 1961 to 2006) [22] and the monsoon
region of Eastern China (an increasing rate of 0.26˚C
(10a)–1 from 1951 to 2002) [23], also, it was more sig-
nificant compared to the western inland area, at the same
latitude (an increasing rate of 0.18˚C (10a)–1 from 1951
to 2002) [24]. Moreover, many research have found that
the transition point of annual mean temperature was ob-
served at 1993 in the Northern Hemisphere [25], 1989 in
China [22], 1992 in the warm temperate zone where

Q. TIAN ET AL. 383
rature time-series in Shandong Peninsula.
Table 1. Monotonic trend tests for the annual mean/maximum/minimum tempe
Annual mean temperatureAnnual minimum temperature Annual maximum temperature
Station Period Zc β Zc β H
o Zc β H o
HY 1959-2009 0. 0. – –0.3 5.13 0333.74069R 0.1900A
LZ 1959-2009 5.16 0.035 3.38 0.067 R –0.42 –0.006 A
ZY 1957-2009 5.31 0.03 4.87 0.109 R –1.50 –0.022 A
LK 1957-2009 6.38 0.046 5.14 0.14 R 0.72 0.01 A
PL 1959-2009 4.49 0.029 2.57 0.05 R –1.08 –
0.
0.021 A
LY 1952-2009 5.98 0.033 3.49 0.052 R 0.72 0.008 A
QX 1959-2009 4.76 0.026 3.05 0.06 R 0.11 0 A
MP 1961-2009 5.57 0.041 2.09 0.052 R 1.15 024A
able 2. Transition point of the annual mean/maximum/minimum temperature time-series at 8 meteorological stations in
Annual mean temperature Annual minimum temperature
T
Shandong Peninsula.
Station Period
Transitease Transe
ion Point Incrsition Point Increa
HY 1959-2009 1988 8.52% 1972 18.70%
LZ 1959-2009 1994 9.23% 1986 20.12%
ZY 1957-2009 1994 9.72% 1986 22.45%
LK 1957-2009 1989 12.21% 1994 34.18%
PL 1959-2009 1988 7.52% 1986 17.36%
LY 1952-2009 1994 11.16% 1987 16.50%
QX 1959-2009 1989 7.66% 1992 17.32%
MP 1961-2009 1994 11.19% 1987 16.83%
Figure 2. Accumulated difference curve of the annual mean (a) minimum (b) and maximum (c) temperature at 8 meteoro-
handong Peninsula located [22], and 1990 in the west-
4.1.2. Annual Minimum Temperature
creased signifi-
ture rejected H, meaning that the increasing trend of
tua-
logical stations in Shandong Peninsula.
S
ern inland area at the same latitude [22]. Apparently, the
late 1980s or the early 1990s in the 20th century was an
important period for temperature mutation in the North-
ern Hemisphere. The abrupt change of annual mean
temperature detected in Shandong Peninsula was mostly
concentrated in this period too.
The annual minimum temperature has in
cantly during the last 50 years in Shandong Peninsula.
The Mann-Kendall results of annual minimum tempera-
o
annual minimum temperature achieved the 95% signifi-
cance level (Table 1). And the annual minimum tem-
perature was observed an increase of 2˚C - 7˚C approxi-
mately over the past 5 decades, with an average increas-
ing rate of 0.5˚C - 1.4˚C (10a)–1 in Shandong Peninsula
(Table 1). This observation was in agreement with the
conclusions that the annual minimum temperature showed
a significant increasing trend over the past 50 years in
China [7,26-28], the north of 35˚N especially [24].
The rising process of annual minimum temperature in
Shandong Peninsula showed distinct periodical fluc

Q. TIAN ET AL. 384
tio
re at most stations was in the
pe
The annual maximum temperature demonstrated a mixed
he past 50 years
l minimum temperature was
m
Peninsula over the Past 50 Years
Theninsula exhi-
ing the last 50 years. The
bvious periodical fluctuations,
ot
r the abrupt change with the reduction
m
ns over the past 5 decades, but not a monotonic in-
creasing trend. The accumulated difference curves at
most stations showed a decreasing trend before 1990, a
continuous increasing trend afterwards, but there was an
obvious fluctuation around 1970 (Figure 2(b)). Since it
can be inferred that the possible transition point of annual
minimum temperature existed around 1990. However,
accumulated difference curve for Haiyang station ap-
peared to show a decreasing trend before 1970s, an in-
creasing trend after 1990 and a horizontal period between
them (Figure 2(b)). Evidently, the abrupt change of an-
nual minimum temperature probably existed in 1970s-
1990s at Haiyang station.
The OCA results showed that the transition point of
annual minimum temperatu
riod of 1986-1994, except Haiyang Station, which has
an earlier transition point at 1972 (Table 2). Moreover,
the annual minimum temperature showed an increase of
16.50% - 34.18% after the abrupt change (Table 2).
Therefore, the annual minimum temperature in Shandong
Peninsula increased by about 20% after 1990 over the
past 5 decades, and thus the abrupt change was distinct.
4.1.3. Annu al Ma x i mu n Temperature
trend of decreasing and increasing over t
in Shandong Peninsula. Longkou, Muping, Laiyang and
Qixia stations showed a slight upward trend of annual
maximum temperature, while it displayed a gentle de-
creasing trend at Haiyang, Laizhou, Penglai and Zhao-
yuan station. The Mann-Kendall test indicated that the
change trend was statistically insignificant (Table 1).
Furthermore, the change pattern of annual maximum
temperature was quite complex and no obvious abrupt
change was observed, seen from the accumulated differ-
rence curve (Figure 2(c)).
According to the analysis described above, the in-
crease amplitude in annua
uch higher than that of the annual maximum tempera-
ture in Shandong Peninsula over the last 50 years. Con-
sequently, the climate warming of Shandong Peninsula
over the last 50 years was largely due to the significant
increase of annual minimum temperature, especially after
the 1990s. A similar story exists all over China [29].
4.2. Precipitation Changes in Shandong
4.2.1. Annual Precipitation
annual precipitation of Shandong Pe
bited a decreasing trend dur
Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the annual pre-
cipitation at 18 stations showed a decreasing trend, and
the decreasing trend was significant at Muyushuiku, Lai-
yang, Tiekou, Miaohou and Menlou stations (Table 3).
The annual precipitation was observed a decrease of
about 60 - 200 mm over the past 5 decades, the decreas-
ing rate was 1.33 - 4.13 mm·a–1, with an average value of
2.73 mm·a–1 (Table 3). Thus, the annual precipitation
reduction differs considerably in different regions of
Shandong Peninsula. The decreasing rate of annual pre-
cipitation over the past 50 years in Shandong Peninsula is
slightly higher than that of the warm temperate zone in
China (–2.13 mm·a–1), which was detected a more marked
reduction in annual precipitation than the other climate
zones of China [22,26]. Therefore, the decreasing trend
of annual precipitation in Shandong Peninsula over the
past 50 years was more notable compared with the other
climate zones of China.
The change process of annual precipitation in Shan-
dong Peninsula showed o
her than monotonic increasing trend over the past 5
decades. The accumulated difference curves at Muyu-
shuiku, Laiyang and Shewopo stations showed an in-
creasing trend before 1966, after a short-term fluctuation,
then started to decrease around 1980 (Figure 3(a)). How-
ever, the accumulated difference curves for the other 15
stations were divided into 2 periods at 1980, but there
was an obvious fluctuation at about 1966, especially the
Sikou, Tuanwang, Zangjiazhuang and Wandi station
(Figure 3(b)). This suggested that the annual precipita-
tion transitioned from a relatively wet season to a dry
season after 1980s in the study area. Therefore, 1966 or
1980 was thought as the possible transition point of an-
nual precipitation in Shandong Peninsula. Further analy-
sis based to the results of OCA showed that, the transi-
tion point of annual precipitation was 1966 at Muyu-
shuiku, Laiyang and Shewopo station, which were lo-
cated in the Southeastern Peninsula, while that at the
other 15 stations was around 1980 (Table 4), this is the
same time when the major precipitation belt moved in a
Northern to Southern China trajectory throughout the last
50 years [30].
The annual precipitation in Shandong Peninsula has
decreased afte
agnitude ranges from 13.81% to 24.75% over the past 5
decades, and the mean value was 18.77% approximately
(Table 4). The study area can be divided into two parts:
the northwest (9 stations) and the southeast (9 stations),
respectively, according to the line joining points of Yan-
tai and Miaohou. Among the 8 stations with the reduced
amplitude of annual precipitation below the mean value
(18.77%), 7 were located in the northwest, while only 2
of the 10 stations with the reduced amplitude above the
mean value (18.77%) were located in the northwest
(Figure 1). Therefore, the reduction of annual precipita-
tion in the northwest was much smaller than that in the
southeast in the past 50 years.
Different from the decreasing trend of annual precipi-

Q. TIAN ET AL. 385
or the annual/June-September precipitation time-series at 18 hydrological stations in Shan-
do
Table 1. Monotonic trend tests f
ng Peninsula.
Annual precipitation June-September precipitation
Station Period Zc β H
o Period Zc β H o
JQ 1965-2009 .34 A 1965-2009 A –1.13 –2–1.54 –2.31
CLGJ 1 – 1 – –2
M
SW –2.
960-2009–1.2 2.24A 960-20091.16.22A
WW 1959-2009 –0.96 –1.33 A 1959-2009 –1.24 –1.84 A
SK 1956-2009 –1.36 –2.13 A 1958-2009 –1.35 –2.41 A
GL 1952-2009 –1.05 –1.49 A 1952-2009 –1.25 –2.07 A
YSK 1956-2009 –2.16 –3.42 R 1959-2009 –1.97 –3.13 R
LY 1956-2009 –2.2 –3.24 R 1956-2009 –1.84 –2.95 A
TW 1952-2009 –1.8 –2.4 A 1957-2009 –1.07 –1.84 A
WD 1952-2009 –1.83 –2.57 A 1952-2009 –1.47 –1.88 A
P 1953-2009 –1.8 79 A 1953-2009 –1.69 –2.79 A
JX 1956-2009 –1.69 –3.04 A 1960-2009 –1.99 –3.47 R
TK 1952-2009 –2.07 –3.25 R 1952-2009 –2.12 –2.98 R
MH 1960-2009 –2.08 –3.95 R 1960-2009 –2.12 –3.48 R
ZJZ 1960-2009 –1.36 –2.21 A 1960-2009 –1.64 –2.58 A
FS 1966-2009 –1.61 –3.68 A 1966-2009 –1.35 –2.8 A
ML 1960-2009 –2.41 –4.13 R 1960-2009 –2.31 –4.44 R
TC 1952-2009 –1.36 –1.81 A 1952-2009 –1.47 –2.37 A
QX 1960-2009 –1.82 –3.09 A 1960-2009 –1.66 –2.95 A
Tableransition points of the annual/June-Seer preitation at 18 hgical s in Shong
eninsula.
2. Tptembciptime-seriesydrolostationand
P
Annual precipitation June-September precipitation
Station
Period Transition point Decrease Period Transition point Decrease
JQ 191965-65-2009 1979 14.44% 2009 1979 19.08%
CLGJ 1960-1960-
GL 1952-2009 1980 13.81% 1952-2009 1980 15.77%
M
2009 1986 17.27% 2009 1986 20.54%
WW 1959-2009 1979 15.08% 1959-2009 1979 20.77%
SK 1956-2009 1977 14.61% 1958-2009 1977 16.55%
YSK 1956-
LY 1956-
2009
2009
1966
1966
22.11%
24.75%
1959-2009
1956-2009
1966
1966
31.27%
29.51%
TW 1952-2009 1977 20.09% 1957-2009 1966 29.32%
WD 1952-2009 1977 20.01% 1952-2009 1966 23.94%
SWP 1953-2009 1966 18.84% 1953-2009 1966 22.85%
JX 1956-2009 1977 22.98% 1960-2009 1977 26.78%
TK 1952-2009 1980 23.68% 1952-2009 1980 26.79%
MH 1960-2009 1977 19.37% 1960-2009 1979 21.47%
ZJZ 1960-2009 1980 15.93% 1960-2009 1979 20.11%
FS 1966-2009 1977 20.26% 1966-2009 1979 23.05%
ML 1960-2009 1980 22.13% 1960-2009 1979 27.84%
TC 1952-2009 1977 14.29% 1952-2009 1979 16.74%
QX 1960-2009 1980 18.16% 1960-2009 1980 21.63%

Q. TIAN ET AL. 386
Year Year
Figure 3. Accumulated difference curve of the annual precipitation at 18 hydrological stations in Shandong Peninsula.
tati
en
ng Peninsula has developed a typical humid mon-
most pre-
5.1. The Relationship between Temperature and
the rising temperature; also,
mount of precipitation and evaporation
tureon scenarios in different
greenhouse effect [2]. Therefore,
the climate change in Shandong Peninsula was affected
-
ric c exchange and
on in Shandong Peninsula, it exhibited an increasing
d in the western inland area at the same latitude over
5. Discussion
tr
the last 50 years [7,19,26,31], with the transition point
concentrated in mid-1980s [22,32], which is a little later
than that of the Shandong Peninsula. Consequently,
Shandong Peninsula was becoming warmer and drier
gradually, while the western inland area showed a transi-
tion to warmer and wet conditions during the recent 50
years.
4.2.2. Precipitation from June to September
Shando
soon climate of warm temperate zone, with
cipitation falls mainly in summer season (from June to
September). The research results show that, the average
percent of precipitation from June to September of the
year was 67.19% - 74.61% in the 18 hydrological sta-
tions of Shandong Peninsula, the average value was
71.93% (Table 5). Therefore, the analysis on the evolu-
tion of summer precipitation and the proportion of pre-
cipitation from June-September of the year is of great
significance to understand the monsoon climate change
over the last 50 years.
The change characteristics, as well as the transition
point of June-September precipitation, were basically
consistent with that of the annual precipitation in Shan-
dong Peninsula over the past 5 decades (Tables 3 and 4),
but the proportion of June-September precipitation in
annual precipitation decreased slightly (Table 5). It sug-
gests the reduction of June-September precipitation was
responsible mainly for the decrease of annual precipita-
tion. The June-September precipitation reduced by 15.77% -
31.27% after the abrupt change, and the mean value was
about 23% (Table 4). Within the Peninsula, the reduction
magnitude of June-September precipitation at 10 stations
was under the mean value (23%), in which, 7 were lo-
cated in the northwest, but only 2 out of the 8 stations
with the reduction magnitude above the mean value
(23%) were located in the northwest. Therefore, the re-
duction magnitude in the southeast was more remarkable
than that in the northwest.
Precipitation Changes
On a global or large regional scale, the regional water
alter withcycle process will
it will affect the a
[33,34]. However, changes in precipitation and tempera-
showed different collocati
regions. For example, increasing temperature was identi-
fied all over China during the past 50 years, while the
annual precipitation increased in South China, but de-
creased in the North [19,26,35], or decreased in East
China, but increased in the west [7,31]. As has been ar-
gued above, the temperature has increased significantly
in Shandong Peninsula with an abrupt change detected
around 1990; whilst the precipitation decreased with an
inflection point around 1980. Consequently, increasing
temperature collocated with decreasing precipitation in
Shandong Peninsula during the study period, both showed
distinct periodical fluctuations and abrupt changes, but
the abrupt change in precipitation was 10 years earlier
than that of the temperature. In addition, the annual tem-
perature range and the proportion of June-September pre-
cipitation in annual precipitation has decreased slightly.
However, changes in temperature and precipitation over
the past 50 years have not modified the synchronization
of high temperature and ample precipitation, which was
the main feature of the temperate monsoon climate in
Shandong Peninsula.
5.2. The Relationship between Climate Change
and the Monsoon Evolution
It was generally recognized that global warming was
primarily related to the
by the global warming inevitably. Besides, the atmosphe
irculation is an important way for heat
water vapor transport, and thus is the main factor for the
formation of various climate conditions [36]. For the East

Q. TIAN ET AL. 387
Table 5. Monotonic trend tests for the percentage of June-Sember precipitation in the year at 18 hydrological stations in
Shandong Peninsula.
Station Period Zc Percent
pte
Staton Period Zc Percent Ho i
JQ 1965-2009 –0.85 69.84% SWP 1953-2009 –1.18 74.18% A
CLGJ 1960-2009 –0.74 70.88% JX 1960-2009 –1.72 73.40% A
1 –1 – WW 959-20091.54 71.70% TK 952-20091.09 72.62% A
SK 1958-2009 –0.81 72.23% MH 1960-2009 –0.6 70.18% A
GL 1952-2009 –0.93 74.61% ZJZ 1960-2009 –0.97 70.82% A
MYSK1959-2009 –0.75 73.40% FS 1966-2009 –0.35 67.19% A
LY 1956-2009 –0.81 72.24% ML 1960-2009 –1.22 69.16% A
TW 1957-2009 –0.31 71.95% TC 1952-2009 –1.02 74.02% A
WD 1952-2009 –0.23 74.30% QX 1960-2009 –0.77 72.06% A
Asia moon cl Shandninsul was
closeelated tactioneen won-
soon summn [14any shave
und that the Siberia-Mongolia high was an important
l precipitation in Eas-
te
e impact of natural
an
nsula lhe rgiate
ange in ninquirer resea.
5.3. Spatial Difference of Climate Change in
ribed
the
sout of temperature was more
dy
reasing trend and a distinct
onsimate inong Pea, it
ly ro the inter betwinter m
ander monsoo]. Mtudies
fo
factor for temperature change in the East Asian monsoon
area. The 1030 hPa isobar southward expansion of Sibe-
rian high and the 500 hPa geopotential height of Siberia-
Mongolian Plateau both experienced an abrupt change in
mid-1980s [37,38], which was basically consistent with
the transition point of temperature in Shandong Peninsula
during the last 50 years. Since it can be inferred that the
temperature change in Shandong Peninsula over the past
50 years may be highly impacted by the abrupt change of
Siberia-Mongolia winter monsoon.
Precipitation in the East Asian monsoon region was
directly related to the summer monsoon [29,39-45]. The
maritime air masses associated with the summer mon-
soon brings about 75% of the annua
rn China [46]. Many research has shown that the East
Asian summer monsoon suddenly weakened in late 1970s
during the last 50 years, which might be related to the
changes of the snow cover conditions in the Tibetan Pla-
teau and the sea surface temperature in east central tro-
pical Pacific [41-43,47]. Correspondingly, the precipita-
tion in Northeastern China reduced significantly in late
1970s, resulted by the sudden weaken of the summer
monsoon [30,35,43,44,48]. The precipitation reduction in
Shandong Peninsula was in the same period, therefore,
we can speculate that the decrease of precipitation in
Shandong Peninsula may be attributed to the changes in
East Asian summer monsoon.
There are great difficulties to analyze the driving me-
chanism of climate change under the continental scale.
The causal factors for climate change are diverse and
complicated. It is hard to identify th
d anthoropogenic factors due to the local circulation
and topographic complexity on a small scale [49]. This
article is only a preliminary study for the main reason of
climate change in the large-scale area where Shandong
Shandong Peninsula
As the barrier effect of the nearly east-west watershed
located in central Peninsula, the northwestern Peninsula
was more influenced by winter monsoon, while the sum-
mer monsoon was more significant in the southeast. Con-
sequently, it presented distinct spatial variations of cli-
Peni ocated, tonal reason for the clim
chShandong Pesula res furtherch
mate change within Shandong Peninsula. As desc
above, the reduction of precipitation was larger in
heast while the increase
significant in the northwest; meanwhile, the stations with
earlier transition points of precipitation and temperature
were located mostly in the southeastern Peninsula. This
implied that the summer monsoon had an earlier change
than winter monsoon. And we can further speculate that
the impact of the Pacific Ocean on the monsoon climate
in the study area was possibly greater than the Eurasia.
In conclusion, the coastal climate of Shandong Penin-
sula was characterised by a remarkable warming trend,
which was on the basis of getting drier over the past 50
years. This variation in climate, coupled with the in-
crease of the exploitation of water resources, will inevi-
tably reduce the river runoff and sediment load into the
coastal area [50-53]. Correspondingly, it will exert far-
reaching effects on the hydrological regime and sediment
namic conditions of the bay and estuary: this will be
the focus of further research.
6. Conclusions
The variation characteristics of both precipitation and
temperature in Shandong Peninsula of China over the
past 50 years have been studied in this paper. The major
conclusions are:
1) The annual mean temperature of Shandong Penin-
sula showed a significant inc

Q. TIAN ET AL. 388
abrupt change was detected around 1990 during the past
o. Z2008E03);
ning Project of Higher Edu-
, China (No. J09LE07); Sci-
5 decades. The change characteristics observed in annual
minimum temperature was basically consistent with the
annual mean temperature throughout the study area, ex-
cept the Haiyang Station, which has an earlier transition
point at 1972. The annual maximum temperature exhi-
bited a very complex change trend. Some stations showed
a slight upward trend for the annual maximum tempera-
ture, while the opposite trend was observed in the other
stations, but they were all statistically insignificant and
no abrupt change was observed. Therefore, the direct
cause that leads to the warming of Shandong Peninsula
for the last 50 years was the significant increase of the
annual minimum temperature.
2) The variation characteristics of precipitation, from
June to September, seem to be in good agreement with
the annual precipitation in Jiaodong Peninsula over the
past 50 years. They showed a decreasing trend conform-
ably, but the decreasing trend was significant at a few
stations. The transition points of annual precipitation and
June-September precipitation at most stations were de-
tected around 1980, while a few stations showed an ear-
lier transition point at 1966. The reduction in the June-
September precipitation was responsible mainly for the
decrease of annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the propor-
tion of June-September rainfall of the whole year de-
clined slightly, but it was not significant.
3) The temperature increasing collocated with pre-
cipitation decreasing in Shandong Peninsula over the past
50 years. However, the abrupt change of precipitation
was delayed for about 10 years, after the temperature.
The variation characteristics of temperature in Shandong
Peninsula was basically consistent with most parts of
China, with the exact transition point being almost syn-
chronous, but warmed at a faster rate over the same pe-
riod; and the decreasing trend of precipitation in Shan-
dong Peninsula was most significant all over China.
Within the Peninsula, the abrupt change of temperature
and precipitation in the Southeast was earlier than that in
the Northwest; besides, the reduction of precipitation was
larger in the Southeast while the increase of temperature
was more significant in the Northwest.
7. Acknowledgements
This study was jointly funded by National Natural Sci-
ence Foundation of China (No. 41071011 and No.
41171158); Key Project of Chinese Ministry of Educa-
tion (No. 210122); Key Project of Natural Science Foun-
dation of Shandong Province, China (N
Science and Technology Plan
cation in Shandong Province
entific and Technological Project of Yantai, China (No.
2008323). The authors are grateful for the support.
REFERENCES
[1] C. Keltoum, N. Luc, D. Claudine, P. Nicolas, L. Bernard,
M. Eric, S. Dallas and C. Yvan, “Analyses of Precipita-
tion, Temperature and Evapotranspiration in a French
Mediterranean Region in the Context of Climate Change,”
Comptes Rendus Geoscience, Vol. 342, No. 3, 2010, pp.
234-243. doi:10.1016/j.crte.2010.02.001
[2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (I
“Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007:
PCC),
the Physical Science Basis,” In: S. Solomon, et al., Eds.,
Contribution othe 4th Assessment f Working Group I to
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007, pp. 1-13.
[3] M. V. Flavio, L. D. P. Susana and A. S. Marcelo, “Ana-
lysis of the Global Warming Dynamics from Temperature
Time Series,” Ecological Modelling, Vol. 221, No. 16,
2010, pp. 1964-1978.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.05.001
[4] V. Ramanathan and Y. Feng, “Air Pollution, Greenhouse
Gases and Climate Change: Global and Regional Pers-
pectives,” Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 43, No. 1,
2009, pp. 37-50. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.063
[5] Meteorological Administration of China, “Climate and
tions,” Journal of Arid Environ-
77.
Environment in China,” Meteorology Press, Beijing, 2006.
[6] E. Lioubimtseva and G. M. Henebry, “Climate and Envi-
ronmental Change in Arid Central Asia: Impacts, Vul-
nerability, and Adapta
ments, Vol. 73, No. 11, 2009, pp. 963-9
doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.04.022
[7] Y. X. Liu, X. Li, Q. Zhang, Y. F. Guo, G. Gao and J. P.
Wang, “Simulation of Regional Temperature and Pre-
cipitation in the Past 50 Years and the Next 30 Years over
China,” Quaternary International, Vol. 212, No. 1, 2010,
pp. 57-63. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2009.01.007
[8] T. Malone, P. Di Giacomo and E. Gonçalves, “Climate
Change, Sustainable Development and Coastal Ocean In-
formation Needs,” Procedia Environmental Sciences, Vol.
1, 2010, pp. 324-341. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.021
[9] C. S. Biliana and K. Robert, “Integrated Coastal and
eninsula and
Ocean Management: Concepts and Practices,” Island
Press, Washington DC, 1998.
[10] N. Isabelle, D. Mamadou, F. Serigne, G. Khadim and N.
Pape, “Impacts of Climate Change on the Senegalese
Coastal Zones: Examples of the Cap Vert P
Saloum Estuary,” Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 72,
No. 4, 2010, pp. 294-301.
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.005
[11] J. N. Robert and A. L. Jason, “Benefits of Mitigation of
Climate Change for Coastal Areas,” Global Environ-
mental Change Part A, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2004, pp. 229-
244.
[12] W. Z. Cao and M. H. Wong, “Current Status of Coastal
Zone Issues and Management in China: A Review,” En-
vironment International, Vol. 33, No. 7, 2007, pp. 985-
992. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2007.04.009
[13] Y. Z. Zhang and D. K. Z
Area to the Studies on Global Chang
hu, “Coastal Zone—The Key
e,” Marine Science
Bulletin, Vol. 16, No. 3, 1997, pp. 69-80.

Q. TIAN ET AL. 389
[14] Q
. J. Sun, Y. Z. Lin, Y. L. Wu, S. D. Li and R. X. Jin,
“Geography of Shandong Province,” China Education
Press, Beijing, 1987, p. 97.
[15] M. Domros and G. B. Peng, “The Climate of China,”
Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1988, p. 360.
doi:10.1007/978-3-642-73333-8
[16] Shandong China, Office of Land and Resources Staff,
“Shandong Land Resources Atlas,” Shandong Carto-
reme Tempera-
0.
graphic Publishing House, Jinan, 2007, p. 13.
[17] Z. Li, F. L. Zheng, W. Z. Liu and C. F. Dennis, “Spatial
Distribution and Temporal Trends of Ext
ture and Precipitation Events on the Loess Plateau of
China during 1961-2007,” Quaternary International, Vol.
226, No. 1-2, 2010, pp. 92-10
doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.03.003
[18] X. M. Hao, Y. N. Chen, C. C. Xu and W
of Climate Change and Human Activit
. H. Li, “Im
ies on the Surface
pacts
Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty
Years,” Water Resour Manage, Vol. 22, 2008, pp. 1159-
1171. doi:10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4
[19] K. H. Xu, D. M. John and H. Xu, “Temporal Trend of
Precipitation and Runoff in Major Chinese Rivers since
1951,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 73, No. 3-4, 2010, pp.
219-232.
[20] Z. T. Cong, J. J. Zhao, D. W. Yang and
derstanding the Hydrological Tren
G. H. Ni, “Un-
ds of River Basins in
China,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 388, No. 3-4, 2010,
pp. 350-356. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.013
[21] X. Y. Li, Y. Luo and L. X. Wang, “Study on the Distur-
bance of Human Activities on the Hydrological Process in
Tarim River Watershed,” Journal of Zhengzhou Univer-
Trend and Abrupt Climate Change in China
a
Diurnal Range in China during 1951-2002,” Climatic
ation across China un-
. Liu, “Climate Changes of
alf of the 20th Century,” Acta Geographica
Geographica
8,
sian Summer Monsoon.
sity (Engineering Science), Vol. 23, No. 4, 2003, pp. 93-
98.
[22] Y. H. Yin, S. H. Wu and G. Chen, “Regional Difference
of Climate
during 1961-2006,” Journal of Natural Resources, Vol.
24, No. 12, 2009, pp. 2147-2157.
[23] H. Y. Tang and P. M. Zhai, “Contrast of Variations of
Surface Air Temperatures in Eastern and Western Chin
during 1951-2002,” Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.
48, No. 3, 2005, pp. 61-69.
[24] H. Y. Tang, P. M. Zhai and Z. Y. Wang, “On Change in
Mean Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature
and
and Environmental Research, Vol. 10, No. 4, 2005, pp.
728-735.
[25] A. G. Lu, S. C. Kang, D. Q. Pang and T. M. Wang,
“Asynchronous Temperature Vari
der the Background of Global Warming,” Arid Land Ge-
ography, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2009, pp. 506-511.
[26] G. Y. Ren, J. Guo, M. Z. Xu, Z. Y. Chu, L. Zhang, X. K.
Zou, Q. X. Li and X. N
China’s Mainland over the Past Half Century,” Acta Me-
teorologica Sinica, Vol. 63, No. 6, 2005, pp. 942-956.
[27] P. M. Zhai and X. H. Pan, “Change in Extreme Tempera-
ture and Precipitation over Northern China during the
Second H
Sinica, Vol. 58, 2003, pp. 1-10.
[28] Z. G. Ma, C. B. Fu, X. B. Ren and C. Yang, “Trend of
Annual Extreme Temperature and Its Relationship to Re-
gional Warming in Northern China,” Acta
Sinica, Vol. 58, 2003, pp. 11-20.
[29] N. Zhang, Z. B. Sun and G. Zeng, “Change of Extreme
Temperatures in China during 1955-2005,” Journal of
Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Vol. 30, No. 1, 200
pp. 123-128.
[30] Y. H. Ding, Z. Y. Wang and Y. Sun, “Inter-Decadal
Variation of the Summer Precipitation in East China and
Its Association with Decreasing A
Part I: Observed Evidences,” International Journal of
Climatology, Vol. 28, No. 9, 2008, pp. 1139-1161.
doi:10.1002/joc.1615
[31] Y. N. Chen, C. C. Xu, X. M. Hao, W. H. Li, Y. P. Chen,
C. G. Zhu and Z. X. Ye, “Fifty-Year Climate Change and
Its Effect on Annual Runoff in the Tarim River Basin,
China,” Quaternary International, Vol. 208, No. 1-2,
2009, pp. 53-61. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.11.011
[32] Y. F. Shi, Y. P. Shen and R. J. Hu, “Preliminary Study on
Signal, Impact and Foreground of Climatic Shift from
Warm-Dry to Warm-Humid in Northwest China,” Jour-
nal of Glaciology and Geocryolog, Vol. 24, No. 3, 2002,
pp. 219-226.
[33] P. M. Zhai, X. B. Zhang, H. Wan and X. H. Pan, “Trends
in Total Precipitation and Frequency of Daily Precipita-
tion Extremes over China,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 18,
No. 7, 2005, pp. 1096-1108. doi:10.1175/JCLI-3318.1
[34] S. Buda, G. Marco and J. Tong, “Spatial and Temporal
Variation of Extreme Precipitation over the Yangtze
River Basin,” Quaternary International, Vol. 186, No. 1,
2008, pp. 22-31. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.09.001
[35] Q. Zhang, C. Y. Xu, Z. Zhang, Y. D. Chen and C. L. Liu,
“Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation over
China, 1951-2005,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology,
Vol. 95, No. 1-2, 2009, pp. 53-68.
doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0375-4
[36] Z. G. Zhao and L. Xu, “Potential Impact on El Ni~no
Events on the Circulation and Climate Variation in
for the
China,” Wea Climate, Vol. 1, 2002, pp. 109-118.
[37] W. H. Qian, H. N. Zhang and Y. F. Zhu, “Interannual and
Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Acas and Their
Impact on Temperature of China in Winter Season
Last Century,” Advances in Atmospheric Science, Vol. 18,
No. 4, 2001, pp. 511-523.
doi:10.1007/s00376-001-0041-1
[38] D. Y. Gong and C. H. Ho, “The S
mate Change over Middle to High La
iberian High and Cli-
titude Asia,” Earth
and Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 72, No.
1-2, 2002, pp. 1-9. doi:10.1007/s007040200008
[39] D. E. Zhang, H. C. Li, T. L. Ku and L. H. Lu, “On Link-
ing Climate to Chinese Dynastic Change: Spatial and
Temporal Variations of Monsoonal Rain,” Chinese Sci-
ence Bulletin, Vol. 55, No. 1, 2010, pp. 77-83.
doi:10.1007/s11434-009-0584-6
[40] Q. Y. Guo, J. N. Cai, X. M. Sha
decadal Variability of East-Asian
o and W. Y. Sha, “Inter-
Summer Monsoon and
Its Impact on the Climate of China,” Acta Geographica

Q. TIAN ET AL. 390
Precipi-
Sinica, Vol. 4, 2003, pp. 569-576.
[41] Y. H. Ding, Y. Sun, Z. Y. Wang, Y. X. Zhu and Y. F.
Song, “Inter-Decadal Variation of the Summer
tation in China and Its Association with Decreasing Asian
Summer Monsoon. Part II: Possible Causes,” Interna-
tional Journal of Climatology, Vol. 29, No. 13, 2009, pp.
1926-1944. doi:10.1002/joc.1759
[42] F. L. Yang and K. M. Lau, “Trend and Variability of
China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to
Sea-Surface Temperatures,” International Journal of Cli-
matology, Vol. 24, No. 13, 2004, pp. 1625-1644.
doi:10.1002/joc.1094
[43] F. Huang, H. Wang and P. Dai, “Spatial-Temporal Char-
acters of the Monsoon-Ocean Coupled Mode over the
South China Sea and Its Relation with Summer Precipita-
tion of China,” Periodical of Ocean University of China,
Vol. 37, No. 3, 2007, pp. 351-356.
[44] H. J. Wang, “The Weakening of the Asian Monsoon Cir-
te-
22, No. 4, 2008, pp. 404-418.
Plateau: The Asso-
culation after the End of the 1970’s,” Advances in At-
mospheric Sciences, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2001, pp. 376-386.
[45] Y. H. Ding and Y. Y. Liu, “A Study of the Teleconnec-
tions in the Asian-Pacific Monsoon Region,” Acta Me
orologica Sinica, Vol.
[46] L. Q. Liang, L. J. Li and Q. Liu, “Precipitation Variability
in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008,” Journal of Hy-
drology, Vol. 404, No. 1-2, 2011, pp. 67-76.
[47] Y. S. Zhang, T. Li and B. Wang, “Decadal Change of the
Spring Snow Depth over the Tibetan
ciated Circulation and Influence on the East Asian Sum-
mer Monsoon,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, No. 14, 2004,
pp. 2780-2793.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2780:DCOTSS>2.0.C
O;2
[48] N. J. Wan, H. C. Li, Z. Q. Liu, H. Y. Yang, D. X. Yuan
and Y. H. Chen, “Spatial Variations of Monsoonal Rain
in Eastern China: Instrumental, Historic and Speleothem
Records,” Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, Vol. 40, No.
6, 20 11, pp. 1139-1150. doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2010.10.003
[49] M. V. C. Leila, J. Charles and L. Brant, “Extreme Pre-
cipitation Events in Southeastern South America and
Large-Scale Convective Patterns in the South Atlantic
Convergence Zone,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, No. 17,
2002, pp. 2377-2394.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2377:EPEISS>2.0.CO
;2
[50] B. Claudine, C. Diane, C. Isabelle and G. R. André, “Im-
pact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of St. Law-
rence Tributaries,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 384, No.
1-2, 2010, pp. 65-83. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.011
[51] T. Hans, “The Influence of Climate Change on Stream
Flow in Danish Rivers,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 333,
No. 2-4, 2007, pp. 226-238.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.012
[52] D. E. Walling and D. Fang, “Recent Trends in the Sus-
pended Sediment Loads of the World’s Rivers,” Global
and Planetary Change, Vol. 39, No. 2-3, 2003, pp. 111-
126. doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00020-1
2007.05.001
[53] Y. M. Zhu, X. X. Lu and Y. Zhou, “Sediment Flux Sen-
sitivity to Climate Change: A Case Study in the Long-
chuanjiang Catchment of the Upper Yangtze River,
China,” Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 60, No. 3-4,
2008, pp. 429-442. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.