 Psychology 2012. Vol.3, No.3, 265-271 Published Online March 2012 in SciRes (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/psych) http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/psych.2012.33037 Copyright © 2012 SciRes. 265 Modelling Entrepreneurial Attitudes in Women Entrepreneurs with Bayesian Networks* Jorge López1, Alicia Ramírez2, Pilar Casado2 1Department of Human and Social Sciences, Universidad de Almería, Almería, Spain 2Department of Company Direction and Management, Universidad de Almería, Almería, Spain Email: {jpuga, aramirez, mbelmont}@ual.es Received December 17th, 2011; revised January 15th, 2012; accepted February 17th, 2012 The entrepreneurial attitude model is nowadays getting more attention as a framework to explain and de- scribe new business creation. In short, the attitude model posits that the entrepreneurial behavior is a planed action conditioned by the potential entrepreneur’s attitudes which depends on desirability and fea- sibility beliefs. We have developed and compared three different Bayesian net models taking into account the principles of the Shapero’s entrepreneurial event model. We have also modeled feasibility using two different dimensions. Firstly, we considered opportunity feasibility dimension referring to the degree in which a business would be successful attending to the market opportunities or demands. Secondly, we in- cluded a dimension of resources feasibility referring to the feasibility of the business in terms of the availability of possible resources to make the company a reality. The first model contained both feasibi- lity dimensions whereas the other two only contained one dimension. Our results show that the Bayesian model containing the two forms of feasibility is better to predict entrepreneurial intentions. Implications in the context of promoting entrepreneurial attitudes and behaviors amongst women are finally discussed. Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Attitudes; Bayesian Networks; Women; Model Comparisons Introduction Entrepreneurship is a key phenomenon in post-industrial economies to understand its social realities and it is said that it yields positive effects in the global and local productive mar- kets. It seems that the time in which huge corporations made their livings using cheap labor force in some regions is over. As suggested by Shapero (1981), the old model of economy de- velopment based on exploiting low qualified human resources in some regions is less desirable in a long run as compared with a self-renewing local economical system supported by small and new created firms. In spite of the drawbacks concerning the study of entrepreneurship from a methodological point of view (i.e., Hébert & Link, 1989; Rogoff & Lee, 1996), the pheno- menon is seen as an issue needing careful attention from so- cial sciences because of its social usefulness. For example, Sha- pero (1985) stated that “entrepreneurship provides communities with the diversity and dynamism that not only assures continu- ous development, but also an environment in which personal freedom and individual rights can flourish” (p. 5) more than three decades ago. Entrepreneurial Attitudes The concept of entrepreneur is quite elusive and difficult to apprehend. As noted by Rogoff & Lee (1996), we can perceive the effects of entrepreneurship but we cannot clearly see the nature or essence of the phenomenon. The concept of entre- preneur could be rooted to the Irish economics theorist Richard (Hayek, 1985). From Cantillon (1755-2010) point of view, the entrepreneur is the key to understand the dynamic of an eco- nomical system because the entrepreneur is a social agent cop- ing efficiently with uncertainty and making the system evolve. Considering the entrepreneur as a social actor who flexibly faces uncertainty is also an idea stressed by recent theorists (i.e., Hébert & Link, 1989; Polopolus & Emerson, 1991; Samue- lson, 1970). There are a wide range of definitions of entrepreneur in so- cial science research literature. For example, Hébert & Link (1989) using a synthetic and historical approach stated that an entrepreneur is “someone how specializes in taking responsibi- lity for and making judgmental decisions that affect the location, the form, and the use of goods, resources or institutions” (p. 39). We can find a different definition in Gartner (1988) who, from a functional point of view, considers that an entrepreneur is “a role that individuals undertake to create organizations” (p. 30). From a methodological point of view, Huefner, Hunt & Robin- son (1996) defined entrepreneurs as “those who said they were entrepreneurs and had owned and managed one or more busi- ness” (p. 62). In any case, and generally speaking, we could accept the definition introduced by McKenzie, Ugbah, & Smothers (2007) and consider that an entrepreneur is person or group of people who seek to exploit an economic opportunity. The traits model is probably the most commonly used in the research field of entrepreneurship. The model states that an entrepreneur person is that one who has or exhibits a set of stable psychological traits. Although the model has received several critics (i.e., Bird, 1988; Gartner, 1985, 1988), it was the reference framework until the mid eighties to address the re- search topic of entrepreneurship (i.e., Fuller-Love, 2006; Mc- Kenzie et al., 2007; Thompson, 2004). For example, McCle- *This research contains complementary results to those presented in the 4th nternational Conference of Education, Research and Innovation (López, Ramírez, & Casado, 2011) generated by the Woman Entrepreneur Research Team at the Universidad de Almería.
 J. LÓPEZ ET AL. lland (1955, 1961) pointed out that certain psychological traits like need for achievement were associated with the process of business creation. Traits like achievement motivation, intelli- gence, risk tolerance, self-efficacy, optimism or locus of control have been powerfully related with the phenomenon of entre- preneurship (i.e., Gottfredson, 1998; Huefner et al., 1996; Stan- worth, Stanworth, Granger, & Blyth, 1989). However, as stressed by Robinson, Stimpson, Huefner & Hunt (1991), we could cri- ticize four aspects of the traits model. First, the model may be criticized because the methodologies based on psychological traits research were not adapted to the specific field of entre- preneurship. As a result, the measurement instruments gener- ally used in psychological research were used in the entrepre- neurship context without adapting its contents threatening con- tent validity standards. Secondly, personality theories were nei- ther adapted from psychology to the entrepreneurship area. On the third place, some problems with convergent validity indexes were observed because the heterogeneity of scales used to measure the same construct correlated poorly. Finally, the traits model did not pay too much attention to the interactive theories which were beginning to develop in those days. A new perspective originated in the context of social psy- chology research suggested that the new business creation could be explained as a conscious and intentional process in constant interaction with social environment (i.e., Bird, 1988; Krueger & Brazeal, 1994; Krueger & Carsrud, 1993; Krueger, Reilly, & Carsrud, 2000; Liñán, Battistelli, & Moriano, 2008). Licht & Siegel (2006) point out that the origin of that frame- work could be traced to the Shapero & Sokol’s (1982) pioneer- ing work. Shapero & Sokol (1982) proposed that business crea- tion was an activity culturally conditioned based on the system of values encouraged by society. In Shapero & Sokol’s opinion, human regular behavior is guided by a kind of inertia. Never- theless, that inertia is, under certain circumstances, broken suddenly in a person’s life span causing a type of displacement which forces the person to choose between different behavioral alternatives (Shapero, 1975). In the Shapero & Sokol’s “entre- preneurial event” model, the decision to create a new business depends on its desirability and feasibility (Shapero & Sokol, 1982). The model was optimized approximately a decade later by Krueger & Carsrud (1993) and Krueger & Brazeal (1994) who joined the Shapero & Sokol’s entrepreneurial event model with the Theory of Reasoned Action (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980; Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975). As a result, the new business creation process was understood as an intentional action mediated by the subjective perceptions of the potential entrepreneur. Bayesian Ne ts Bayesian networks originated in the field of artificial intelli- gence as statistical tools to model and manage uncertainty. From a technical point of view, Bayes nets (also referred as probabilistic causal nets, Bayesian expert systems, probabilistic expert systems, causal nets, belief nets or influence diagrams) are statistical tools belonging to the family of Highly Structured Stochastic Systems (Cowell, Dawid, Lauritzen & Spiegelhalter, 1991) and they can represent both the quantitative and qualita- tive dimension of reality to solve problems or to make deci- sions under uncertainty. Firstly, attending to its qualitative dimension, a Bayes net is a graph which means it is a graphical representation of a prob- lem. Although there is no widely accepted consensus about the definition (i.e., Harary, 1969; Gould, 1988; Spirtes, Glymour, & Scheines, 2000; Tutte, 1984; Xiang, 2002), we could say a graph is a pair G = (V, E) where V is a set of vertices, nodes or variables and E is a set of edges. Additionally, a Bayes net is a specific type of graph called directed acyclic graph or DAG. The directionality of the graphical structure refers to the fact that links between variables or nodes are directed and it is rep- resented by arrows. As a result, an arrow from a node A that point to another B means that B depends (statistically) on A. On the other hand, in a DAG cycles or loops are not allowed, that is say if you begin a directed path from a particular node you could never come to the initial point. Taking into account these constraints, three types of basic connections are allowed in a Bayesian network: serial (also known as causal-chain), diverg- ing (also known as common-cause model) and converging (also called common-effect model). These three basic structures be- have differently when propagating probabilities and provide a robust architecture to update the model’s parameters based on the principle of conditional independence. After specifying qualitative structure it is necessary to deter- mine the quantitative component in a Bayes net (Cowel et al., 1999). We could define the quantitative structure of a Bayesian network attending to three different aspects. First, probability is considered as a degree of belief about an event as opposed to the classical or frequentists view (i.e., Dixon, 1964; Heckerman, 1995). Secondly, a Bayes net entails a set of conditioned prob- ability functions. That is to say, every variable in a Bayesian net is defined parametrically by a conditional probability func- tion in the form of a conditional probability table (CPT) which represents the variable’s state’s probability as a function of others variables’ states. Finally, Bayes’ theorem is the basic rule to make inferences and to update probabilities in a Bayes- ian network. It comes from the concept of conditional probabil- ity applied to the intersection of related sets and it is due to the contributions of mathematician Thomas Bayes (1763). Bayes’ rule is useful when we want to know something about an un- certain event by taking into account evidence from another related event. Although Ward Edwards (1998) pointed out more than a decade ago that Bayesian networks had promising perspectives for psychology, these techniques are not very common in psy- chology literature as data analysis tools. However, there has been an increasingly amount of papers trying to highlight Bayes nets potential to serve as a normative reference model of human and animal causal cognition (i.e. Glymour, 2001, 2003; Gopnik, Glymour, Sobel, Schulz, Kushnir, & Danks, 2004; Gopnik & Schulz, L, 2004; Holyoak & Cheng, 2011; Penn & Povinelli, 2011). Additionally, despite the fact that a number of papers have been published dealing with an underlying substantive psychological point of view, most of them were focused on the computational perspective. Thus, efforts have been made to develop student models in the field of Intelligent Tutoring Sys- tems (i.e., Conati, Gertner, & VanLehn, 2002; Martin & Van- Lehn, 1995; Mislevy & Gitomer, 1996), in psycholinguistics (i.e., Narayan & Jurafsky, 1998, 2002; Jurafsky, 1996), in psy- chological diagnostics (Mani, McDermmott, & Valtorta, 1997), and to predict long-term consumers behaviors (Baesens et al., 2004). Objectives and Hypothesis Our main objective is to model entrepreneurial attitudes in Copyright © 2012 SciRes. 266
 J. LÓPEZ ET AL. women using Bayesian networks. Although the woman entre- preneur is not a new phenomenon (Gartner, 1985), and in spite of the fact that most of the research in the field try to study the role of the woman in the process of a new venture creation (i.e. Veciana, Aponte & Urbano, 2005), it is also true that the phe- nomenon has received less attention than the generic study of entrepreneurship (Gewin, 2012; López, Ramirez, & Casado, 2011). On the other hand, we want to use Bayesian networks as a relatively new technique to model entrepreneurial attitudes which provides some advantages compared with classical methods (i.e., López & García, in press; López, García, Cano, Gea, & De la Fuente, 2010). As stated above, the Shapero’s entrepreneurial event model identifies feasibility and desirability as the two main constructs affecting the intention to set up a new business (Krueger & Brazeal, 1994; Krueger & Carsrud, 1993; Shapero, 1982). As a result, we expect a Bayesian network representing those phe- nomena will predict new business creation intention reliably. Secondly, we propose to introduce a differentiation in the con- struct feasibility to accommodate earlier proposals of the entre- preneurial event model and recent theoretical developments. Specifically, as Shapero (1981) pointed out, we suggest consid- ering feasibility as a composed construct integrated by a part referred to resources and another to opportunity (Cohen & Winn, 2007; McMullen & Shepherd, 2006). In that sense, en- trepreneurial intention would depend on desirability and feasi- bility involving the latter one two components: opportunity (referred to how the new business is feasible in terms of creat- ing new products or services relative to the potential compe- tence) and resources (alluding to the degree in which the entre- preneur considers the set up of the new business will be possi- ble in terms of economic, knowledge, and social resources). We propose it is practically useful to differentiate between these dimensions and we hypothesize the best model would be that one considering the two aspects of feasibility at the same time. Method Participants A sample of 140 women entrepreneurs was asked to fill in an electronic questionnaire. Their ages ranged between 19 and 66 years (M = 42.38, SD = 9.12) and they all were from Andalusia Autonomic Region in Spain. The object population for that research came from a directory of Andalusian woman entre- preneurs published in 2009 as a special issue in the magazine Mujer Emprendedora (Vol. 107, September, ISSN: 1575-9377). The original database contained 808 records of businesses managed by women in the Autonomic Region of Andalusia (Spain). After correcting repeated records and invalid informa- tion a final data set containing 587 records was used in the study. As a result, the response rate was 23.85%. Instruments An electronic questionnaire developed with the LimeSurvey platform (Fa. Carsten Schmitz) was used. The questionnaire contained a set of individual items and scales that were used to create three different Bayesian networks. The items were taken from Morales’ (2008) research about the academic entrepre- neur. To assess the relatives and peers influence we used two di- chotomic items for which participants had to answer yes or not: my close relatives were or have been entrepreneurs, and I knew cases of other women in my cl ose environment who had created their own business. Entrepreneurial intention was operational- ised with the item which of the following statements best de- scribes your case? There were three options in that item: 1) The decision to create a business was an unexpected one, it de- pended on the circumstances; 2) I had sometimes thought about creating my own business but I considered it as an unlikely possibility; 3) I had always had the idea of setting up a business in mind; however the first two alternatives were recoded into one category to differentiate between the true type of entrepre- neur defined by Shane (2004). The opportunity feasibility scale contained four items asking how important were relevant opportunity situations (for exam- ple, the discovery of a new method of production) when con- sidering the creation of a new business (Chiesa & Piccaluga, 2000; Heirman & Clarysse, 2004). Resources feasibility was measured with eight Likert-type items from Autio & Kauranen (1994) plus an item about personal assets. Six items were used to get a measure of desirability taken from Autio & Kauranen (1994) and Radosevich (1995). A set of eleven potential obsta- cles (for example, creating a distribution network, raising money) were used to measure the degree in which woman en- trepreneurs considered they faced difficulties when they created the business. All those scales were answered in a four point Liker-type scale where the options ranged from Not important at all (1) to Very important (4). Finally, a scale of perceived risk containing three items was used to evaluate the degree in which the entrepreneur considered the venture creation a risky choice for the company itself, personal capital and professional career development. Items were answered in a four point an- swer scale (0 = Nothing at all, 3 = A lot). Table 1 shows de- scriptive statistics for the scales scores. Procedure The directory was tabulated and incorporated to a database of potential participants in the LimeSurvey platform. Then, three different emails templates were developed to manage the invi- tation and data collection process. A personalized invitation mail was written for each participant indicating the name of the study and the aim of the research. The email of the survey de- signer was available in case any participant had a question or inquiry. Potential participants could access to the online ques- tionnaire just by clicking in a hyperlink. This invitation email also contained a hyperlink to allow potential participants to Table 1. Descritive statistics and internal consistency coefficients. Statistics Scales M SD LLαa αb ULαc Opportunity feasibility 11.212.41 0.468 0.5700.659 Resources feasibility 19.534.70 0.669 0.7280.782 Desirability 13.013.99 0.727 0.7770.822 Risk 8.06 2.14 0.625 0.7050.771 Obstacles 24.385.13 0.674 0.7330.787 aLower limit confidence interval (90%) for Cronbach’s α coefficient of internal consistency (Feldt, Woodruff, & Salih, 1987); bCronbach’s α coefficient of in- ternal consistency; c. Upper limit confidence interval (90%) for Cronbach’s α coefficient of internal consistency (Feldt et al., 1987). Copyright © 2012 SciRes. 267
 J. LÓPEZ ET AL. delete their record from our database and to avoid receiving more emails related with the research. A confirmation email was also written which was sent automatically from the server once the participant had successfully completed the question- naire. Finally, a reminder email was also written to remain po- tential participants to fill in the survey. Two and four weeks after the first invitation email, a reminder email was sent to those participants who had not filled in the questionnaire. The final database contained information collected during a period of six weeks. No reward, apart from verbal acknowledges at the end of de questionnaire and in the confirmation email, was given to participants for participating in the study. Data Analysis The first step to take when defining a Bayesian network con- sists in defining its qualitative structure (Cowell et al., 1999). Bayesian network structural specification maybe defined using automatic procedures in the form of computational algorithms (i.e., Cooper & Herskovits, 1992; Cowell et al.,1999; Spirtes et al., 2000) or based on the judgments of experts (i.e., Edwards, 1998; Nadkarny & Shenoy, 2004). We have followed a theory- driven method to specify the models. Specifically, our models are based on the Shapero’s entrepreneurial event model which suggests that entrepreneurial intention depends on feasibility and desirability (Krueger & Brazeal, 1994; Krueger & Carsrud, 1993; Shapero, 1975; Shapero & Sokol, 1982). As a result, we tested three different models depicted in Figure 1. Model 1 could be considered the complete model in which entrepreneu- rial intention depends on desirability and either opportunity feasibility and resources feasibility. Additionally, desirability would depend on perceived risk, peer influence and relatives influence whereas the two types of feasibility would depend on perceived obstacles. Model 2 and 3 consider alternatively the relevance of opportunity and resources feasibility indepen- dently. Scales total scores were discretised using percentile 33 and 66 in all the cases and parameter were assessed using the ma- ximum likelihood estimation (or observed frequency estimation, OFE) corrected with the Laplace Law of succession (Greiner, Su, Shen, & Zhou, 2005; Ng & Jordan, 2002). We used Netica Application for Microsoft Windows (Norsys Software Corp.) version 4.16 to run the analysis. To evaluate the goodness of fit we used the hit classification rate, and scoring measures like the logarithmic loss, quadratic loss and spherical payoff (Pearl, 1978). The logarithmic loss ranges between zero and infinity indicating zero the best fit, the quadratic loss measure ranges between zero and two indicating zero the best fit whereas the spherical payoff varies between zero and one where one refers to the best fit. We also carried out a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of each variable in the model on the entre- preneurial intentions variable. Entropy reduction (or mutual information) is referred to the expected reduction in the query variable (intentions in our case) due to a finding in any other variable of the model (Pearl, 1991). It varies between zero (meaning complete independence between the query and the instantiation variable) and the entropy value of the query with- out any evidence about the model. Secondly, we will also compute the variance of node belief and the RMS change of belief (Neapolitan, 1990). Both statistics range from zero to one where the closer the value to zero, the strongest the indepen- dence between the query and instantiation variable. MODEL I Desirability Perc ei ved Risk Peers Influence Relatives InfluenceEnt repreneurial Intent i on Resources Feasibility Opportunity Feasibility Obst acles MODEL II Desirability Perc ei ved Risk Peers Influence Relat ives InfluenceEnt repreneurial Intent i on Resourc es F eas i bi li ty Obst acles MODEL III Desirability Perc ei ved Risk Peers Influence Relat ives InfluenceEntrepreneurial Intent i on Opportunity Feasibility Obst acles Figure 1. Alternative models. Results Table 2 depicts the measurements of fit for the three used models. As can be seen, Model I containing variables referred to resources and opportunity feasibilities produces the better results. That model is able to correctly classify woman entre- preneurs in 75% of the cases. Additionally, logarithmic loss and quadratic loss measurements are the lower and the spherical payoff is the higher compared with the other two models. On the other hand, Model II (considering resources feasibility alone) and Model III (modeling opportunity feasibility) yield similar goodness of fit parameters. These results suggest that Model I considering feasibility as a composite construct of two different types of feasibilities (opportunity and resources) is a better model than those taking into account either of the dimen- sions separately. In order to explore the relative influence of each variable in Model I on entrepreneurial intention, we carried out a sensitiv- ity analysis whose results are shown in Table 3. As can be ap- preciated, and as it is predicted by the theory, opportunity fea- sibility, desirability and resources feasibility are the three most influential variables in the model. There are a second set of variables, obstacles and relatives influence, accounting for a relatively important degree of influence whereas perceived risk and peers influence are the variables whose influence on entre- preneurial intention is lower. Discussion The most striking result in our research is that the differen- tiation between opportunity and resources feasibility is useful to predict entrepreneurial intention. Given that Model I produced better goodness of fit parameters, we could conclude feasibility is, at least for women entrepreneur, integrated by a dimension of opportunity and another one of resources. That evidence is Copyright © 2012 SciRes. 268
 J. LÓPEZ ET AL. Table 2. Models goodness of fit. Model Statistics I II III Hit rate 75.00% 71.74% 72.83% Logarithmic loss 0.5406 0.5888 0.5689 Quadratic loss 0.3596 0.4002 0.3826 Spherical payoff 0.7983 0.7739 0.7847 Table 3. Sensitivity test results. Statistics Variable ENTa VARb RMSc Opportunity Feasibility 1.07 × 10–2 3.67 × 10–3 6.06 × 10–2 Desirability 7.29 × 10–3 2.49 × 10–3 4.99 × 10–2 Resources Feasibility 1.12 × 10–3 3.84 × 10–4 1.96 × 10–2 Obstacles 7.60 × 10–4 2.60 × 10–4 1.61 × 10–2 Relatives Influence 1.90 × 10–4 6.53 × 10–5 8.08 × 10–3 Perceived Risk 7.00 × 10–5 2.39 × 10–5 4.89 × 10–3 Peers Influence 3.00 × 10–5 9.00 × 10–6 3.00 × 10–3 aEntropy reduction; bVariance of beliefs; cRMS change of belief. compatible with previous research on entrepreneurial attitude models (Krueger & Brazeal, 1994; Krueger & Carsrud, 1993; Krueger et al., 2000) and earlier theoretical proposals about op- portunity feasibility (Shapero, 1981). Additionally, our results agree with recent emphasis on the opportunity facet of entre- preneurship (McMullen & Shepherd, 2006) and future research should shed light on that phenomenon in an attitudinal holistic model of entrepreneurial intention. The fact that our study was focused on the figure of the woman entrepreneur is a mixed blessing—it is worth research- ing the profile of woman entrepreneur given it seems that it had been a relatively neglected topic in the past research agenda (López et al., 2011), but we cannot discern if the observed re- sults can be generalized to men. As regards to the first argu- ment, we consider education as a key point to intervene in order to enhance the role of women in business creation and to strength our knowledge of the relationship between gender and business creation. For example, it has been recently shown that early school experiences have a determinant impact on entre- preneurial motivation amongst women (Díaz-Pérez & Gon- zález-Morales, 2011) so knowing and understanding the proc- ess underling the development of entrepreneurial attitudes in women will enhance our chances to intervene and improve the phenomenon. In that sense, the study of the potential entrepre- neur woman is one of the strategic points we should consider in the research agenda. Finally, we would like to suggest the pos- sibility women have in the new field of sustainable entrepre- neurship (Shepherd & Patzelt, 2011) because, as observed by Glodež, Hribar & Dolinšek (2011), women seem to show better attitudes and predispositions to engage themselves in environ- mentally concerned jobs. As a consequence, future studies should try to elucidate if there exist any relationship between women entrepreneurs and environmental and social entrepre- neurship. 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