Intelligent Information Management, 2010, 2, 14-20
doi:10.4236/iim.2010.21002 Published Online January 2010 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/iim)
A New Approach to Intelligent Model Based Predictive
Control Scheme
A. H. MAZINAN1, M. F. KAZEMI2
1Electrical Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University (IAU), South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
2Electrical Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University (IAU), Lahijan Branch, Lahijan, Iran
Emails: [e-mail], [e-mail]
Abstract
This paper describes a new approach to intelligent model based predictive control scheme for deriving a
complex system. In the control scheme presented, the main problem of the linear model based predictive
control theory in dealing with severe nonlinear and time variant systems is thoroughly solved. In fact, this
theory could appropriately be improved to a perfect approach for handling all complex systems, provided
that they are firstly taken into consideration in line with the outcomes presented. This control scheme is or-
ganized based on a multi-fuzzy-based predictive control approach as well as a multi-fuzzy-based predictive
model approach, while an intelligent decision mechanism system (IDMS) is used to identify the best
fuzzy-based predictive model approach and the corresponding fuzzy-based predictive control approach, at
each instant of time. In order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed control scheme, the single linear
model based generalized predictive control scheme is used as a benchmark approach. At last, the appropriate
tracking performance of the proposed control scheme is easily outperformed in comparison with previous
one.
Keywords: multi-fuzzy-based predictive control approach, multi-fuzzy-based predictive model approach,
intelligent decision mechanism system
1. Introduction
Nowadays, the linear model based predictive control
theory has been widely used in so many applications, in
the past two decades. This control theory guarantees that
the future error signals will be approached to zero by
optimizing the specific cost function, if the linear model
approximation of a complex system could accurately be
identified. Based on the matter presented here, a complex
system cannot actually be dealt with, while we are using
the linear model based predictive control theory. In order
to improve the present results, a new control scheme is
now proposed to derive a severe nonlinear and time
variant system in accordance with this control theory.
The advantage of the proposed scheme is to realize an
intelligent control method in the absence of any linear
models of the system. In the control scheme proposed, a
multi-fuzzy-based predictive model-predictive control
approach so called MFPMPC scheme in this paper is
organized to cope with an industrial tubular heat ex-
changer system as a severe nonlinear and time variant
system. To realize the control scheme, at first,
fuzzy-based predictive model approach and subsequently
fuzzy-based predictive control approach need to be cor-
respondingly realized at a specific operating point of the
system. After that, the multi-fuzzy-based predictive
model approach and then the multi-fuzzy-based predic-
tive control approach are correspondingly implemented
on the system to cover all the operating points. The rest
of the proposed control algorithm is based on an intelli-
gent decision mechanism system (IDMS) realization to
choose the best fuzzy-based model approach and also the
corresponding fuzzy-based predictive control approach,
at each instant of time. In fact, the system behavior is
fully covered via the IDMS, provided that the multi-
fuzzy-based predictive model approach as well as the
multi-fuzzy-based predictive control approach is suitably
organized. It means that the best fuzzy-based predictive
model approach and therefore the best fuzzy-based pre-
dictive control approach are accurately identified by the
IDMS, at each instant of time, while the system parame-
ters are abruptly varied with respect to time [1–11].
Based on the control strategy, the new predictive control
could be so flexible to derive a highly nonlinear system
in association with the traditional linear model based
predictive control theory.

A. H. MAZINAN ET AL. 15
u
r
(t)
u
1
(t)
Desired input
u
2
(t)
Multi
Fuzzy
Based
Predictive
Control
Approach
y
m1
(t)
y
m2
(t)
.
.
.
y
m
r
(t)
Multi
Fuzzy
Based
Predictive
Model
Approach
Intelligent
Decision
Mechanism
System
u(t) y(t)
Nonlinear
System
P
i
(t); i=1,2,…, r
.
.
.
Figure 1. The scheme of the proposed control strategy
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. The
proposed control scheme is given in Section 2. The
simulation results and concluding remark are finally de-
scribed in Sections 3 and 4, respectively.
2. The Proposed Control Scheme
The proposed control scheme, as shown in Figure 1 is
organized based on a multi-fuzzy-based control approach
as well as a multi-fuzzy-based predictive model approach
and also an intelligent decision mechanism system
(IDMS) to derive a severe nonlinear and time variant
system. This control scheme is realized based on the pre-
dictive control theory to calculate the future control ac-
tion by optimizing the specific quadratic cost function,
given by



2
1
2
1
2)1())()((
N
Ni
N
i
iituitwityJ
u
 (1)
where is given as the control horizon,
u
N1
12


NN
)(tw
is
given as the prediction horizon, is given as step ahead
predictor, is given as the system output, is
given as the desired trajectory of the future output,
is given as the manipulated variable and finally
i
)(ty
)(tu

is given as the control weight factor. In order to real-
ize the control strategy, the number of models to cover
the different operating points of the system is strongly
needed and consequently the corresponding control ap-
proach needs to be designed for each one of them. If the
operating points of the system are not well chosen, the
outcomes corresponding to the required tracking per-
formance cannot actually be acquired.
In the proposed control scheme, the multi-fuzzy-based
predictive model approach is organized in accordance
with the several fuzzy-based predictive model approa-
ches, where each one of them is realized at a specific
operating point of the system. And then the multi-fuzzy-
based predictive control approach is organized in accor-
dance with the several fuzzy-based predictive control
approaches, where each one of them is realized in line
with the corresponding fuzzy-based predictive model
approach. The proposed control scheme is an appropriate
method to cope with a complex system, when we are
using the predictive control theory. In fact, the proposed
control scheme operates in multiple operating points,
which may change from one to another abruptly. On the
other hand, the operating points regions of a nonlinear
and time variant system have been extended, where a
linear fixed model may not really lead to the expected
performance. In correspondence with the proposed con-
trol scheme,
r
fuzzy-based predictive model ap-
proaches are used to identify the complex system at
r
operating points and subsequently
r
fuzzy-based pre-
dictive control approaches are used to derive the system
presented at corresponding operating points. In designing
the control scheme proposed, is given as the con-
trol action of the multi- fuzzy-based predictive control
approach, given by
)(tu
)()()(
1
tutPtu k
r
k
k


 (2)
where
1)(
1



r
k
ktP (3)

A. H. MAZINAN ET AL.
16
and
r
is given as the number of the operating points of
the system. Hereinafter, and are given as
the appropriate weight and the control action of the
local fuzzy-based predictive control approach, respec-
tively.
)(tP
k)(tuk
th
k
Realization of the fuzzy based predictive control ap-
proach, the fuzzy based predictive model approach and
finally the IDMS are now described in the proceeding
sections.
2.1. The Fuzzy-Based Predictive Control
Approach
The fuzzy-based predictive control approach is given as
one of the local controllers in the multi-fuzzy-based pre-
dictive control approach, in the control scheme presented.
The main concept in realizing the fuzzy-based predictive
control approach is described by the following fuzzy rule
base
i
jk
i
jmk
i
j
FistuTHEN
EisNtyandDisNtwIFiRule
)(
)()(:


where is given as the rule number, is given as the
fuzzy set number and finally , , are given as
the input-output fuzzy sets. In this control strategy,
denotes the desired trajectory of the future
output, denotes the fuzzy-based predictive
model approach output and finally denotes the
manipulated variable of the fuzzy-based predictive
control approach, which is directly related to the follow-
ing future error signal
i
)
y
j
F
(uk
i
j
D
th
k
i
j
E

i
j
)t
(Ntwth
k
)( Nt
mk 
)()()( NtyNtwNte k
mk  (4)
The fuzzy set of the fuzzy-based predictive control ap-
proach is now shown in Figures 2(a) and 2(b). Moreover,
the control action could easily be acquired by the fol-
lowing
)(
1
1
)( 1tu
z
tu kk 

 (5)
2.1.1. Fuzzy Sets Tuning
In the control scheme proposed, the fuzzy sets used in
realizing the multi-fuzzy-based predictive control sche-
me are tuned in an offline manner. In fact, the proposed
tuning algorithm which is already based on the GA algo-
rithm is realized for all the fuzzy-based predictive con-
trol approaches. With this purpose, these fuzzy sets are
first parameterized, as shown in Figure 3 using
. In this way, some populations are
chosen, while the first population has nine chromosomes
(
,,,iiicba
3,1,3,2,1;  jid j
9,...,2,1;

jVj
,,,{ 321 j
jj ggg
), which is now realized by the following
forms
},,,,,,,114 1098765jj gggggggg
V
jjjjjj
j

where we could have the following











j
j
j
j
dg
cg
bg
ag
110
17
14
11








j
j
j j j
jjj
j
jj
djd
cjcjc
bjbjb
a
j
a
j
a
dg
cgcg
bgbg
agag
31
321
321
321
311
3928
3625
3322




(6)
In such a way, with a specific mutation rate; 6.0

Pc ,
the 2nd population have five chromosomes and the 3rd
population have three chromosomes. Also the 4th popula-
tion has two chromosomes and the 5th populations have
)(( Ntw


,))(Ntymk

D
/
E
1
D
/
E
2
D
/
E
3 D/
E
4 D/
E
5
(a)
1
0
-5 0 5
F
1
F
2
F
3
)
k
u( 
(b)
Figure 2. (a) The input fuzzy sets used in the fuzzy-
based predictive control approach; (b) The output fuzzy
sets used in the fuzzy- based predictive control approach
1
0
)(k u 
2312 cada
F
1
F
2
F
3
Figure 3. The fuzzy sets used in the tuning algorithm
0 70
1
0

A. H. MAZINAN ET AL. 17
one chromosome. Obviously, the fuzzy sets parameters
could be optimized to appropriate values by the superior
genes.
2.2. The Fuzzy-Based Predictive Model
Approach
The fuzzy-based predictive model approach is realized as
one of models in the multi-fuzzy-based predictive model
approach. In case of this approach, )(

tu is given as a
valid input of the system, while τ is given as its delay.
Also, is given as the fuzzy-based model
output. The schematic of this approach is shown in Fig-
ure 4. Here, the fuzzy-based model#N could be placed in
sequence with the fuzzy-based model#(N-1) to provide
the fuzzy-based predictive model approach. In fact, the
prediction of model output could be improved, while the
number of the present fuzzy-based models is increased.
The fuzzy rule based for this approach is now given as
follows
)(tymk
th
k
i
jmk
i
jmk
i
j
CistyTHEN
BistyandAistuIFiRule
)(
)1()(: 

where is given as the rule number, is given as the
fuzzy set number and finally , , are given
as the input-output fuzzy sets, as shown in Figure 5.
ij
i
j
B
i
j
Ai
j
C
2.3. The IDMS Realization
In the control scheme proposed, the best fuzzy-based
predictive model approach in the multi-fuzzy-based pre-
dictive model approach is accurately identified by using
the IDMS, at each instant of time. Now, by assuming
only three fuzzy-based predictive model approaches, for
simplicity, the IDMS can be summarized as follows
 Defining the specific performance indices;

itJi);(
3,2,1 , for each one of the fuzzy-based predictive model
approaches, correspondingly, given by
0
,
;
0
;
)()()(
0
2 )( 2







deetetJ
t
i
t
ii (7)
where
)()()( tytyte ii

 (8)
In the IDMS proposed,

,

and

are given as the
weighting factors on the instantaneous measures, the
long term accuracy and the forgetting factor, respec-
tively.
 Defining the input-output fuzzy sets, as shown in
Figure 6.
 Defining the fuzzy rules based, which can be given
by the following
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
1
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
3
1
2
1
1
)(
)()()(
:3#
)(
)()()(
:2#
)(
)()()(
:1#
P
JJJ
P
JJJ
P
JJJ
ListPTHEN
SistJANDListJANDListJIF
Rule
ListPTHEN
ListJANDSistJANDListJIF
Rule
ListPTHEN
ListJANDListJANDSistJIF
Rule
3. Simulation Results
In order to verify the applicability of the proposed con-
trol scheme so called MFPMPC scheme in this paper, an
industrial tubular heat exchanger system is used to con-
trol [1–11]. To analyze the proposed control scheme in
comparison with other control techniques which are fully
investigated by the Authors in the several publications,
this complex system is realized the same specification as
these research works, where all the research papers could
easily be found by the readers in detail.
z
-1
y
m
p
k
(t+1) y
m
p
k
(t +N -1)
. . .
z
-1
Fuzzy
Based
Model#1
)(


t
u
Fuzzy
Based
Model#N
Figure 4. The scheme of the fuzzy-based predictive model
approach
0 70
A
/B/
C
1 …
A/B/C
5 …
A/B/C
9
))(),1(),(( NtyNtytu k
m
k
m

1
0
Figure 5. The fuzzy sets used in fuzzy-based predictive
model approach

A. H. MAZINAN ET AL.
18
i
J
i
J
i
JLMS
1
0
0 1
)(i
J

1
0
i
P
i
P
i
PLMS
0 1
)( i P

Figure 6. The fuzzy sets used in the IDMS
With this purpose, we have carried out the MFPMPC
scheme for this system using the Simulink-Matlab pro-
gramming language, while the multi-fuzzy-based predic-
tive model approach is organized based on the three
fuzzy-based predictive model approaches and subse-
quently the multi-fuzzy-based predictive control ap-
proach is correspondingly organized based on the three
fuzzy-based predictive model approaches. In these simu-
lations, the tracking performance of the MFPMPC
scheme is given in Figure 7, while the single model lin-
ear generalized predictive control entitled SLMGPC
scheme is used as a benchmark approach here. At first,
the desired trajectory of the future output is given as
60oC at 5 sec., while it is abruptly varied to 55oC and
also 40oC at 54 sec. and 104 sec., respectively. In these
simulations, the SLMGPC scheme is carried out by the
following control parameters





3
31
12
u
N
NN (9)
And the CARIMA model is also given by
)(
)(
)1()()()( 1
11



q
ke
kuqBkyqA (10)
4;...1)( 1
1
1  pqaqaqA p
p (11)
pmqbqbbqB m
m  ;...)( 1 10
1 (12)
where its coefficients are identified using the RLS algo-
rithm, as tabulated in Table 1. Afterwards, the weight
signals which are all resulted from the proposed IDMS is
shown in Figure 8. In such a case, the multi-fuzzy-based
Figure 7. The scheme of MFPMPC scheme tracking perfor-
mance in comparison with the SLMGPC scheme
predictive model approach outputs are given in Figure 9
as well. Hereinafter, the manipulated variable signals and
the corresponding control actions are all given in Figures
10 and 11, respectively. Here the control actions are all
multiplied by its weights, in these figures. As is easily
obvious from the outcomes, the tracking performance of
the MFPMPC scheme is quite outperformed with respect
to its benchmark approach.
Figure 8. The scheme of the MFPMPC weight signals, given
by the proposed IDMS [The first diagram is related to
, the second diagram is related to and the third
diagram is finally related to ]
)(
1tP )( 2tP
)(
3tP

A. H. MAZINAN ET AL. 19
Figure 9. The scheme of the MFPMPC models outputs,
given by the multi-fuzzy-based predictive model approach
[The first diagram is related to , the second diagram
is related to and the third diagram is finally related
to ]
m1
y(t)
m2
y(t)
m3
y(t)
Figure 10. The scheme of the MFPMPC manipulated vari-
ables [The first diagram is related to , the second-
diagram is related to and the third diagram is fi-
nally related to ]
)(
1tu
)(
2tu
)(
3tu
Figure 11. The scheme of the MFPMPC control actions
[The first diagram is related to , the second diagram is
related to , the third diagram is related to and
finally the fourth diagram is finally related to ]
)(
1tu
)(
2tu )(
3tu
)t(u
4. Conclusions
A main problem in realizing the linear model based pre-
dictive control theory to derive a severe nonlinear system
has been thoroughly solved, in this paper. Based on the
proposed control strategy so called MFMPMC scheme
by the Authors, a nonlinear system must first be repre-
sented via the multi-fuzzy-based predictive model ap-
proach. And then the multi-fuzzy-based predictive con-
trol approach is correspondingly realized to derive the
nonlinear system presented.
Table 1. The coefficients of the CARIMA model
j
j a j b
1 -0.9933 0.2506e-3
2 -0.4342 0.3519e-3
3 0.0069 0.5283e-3
4 0.4219 0.1830e-3

A. H. MAZINAN ET AL.
20
Besides, the intelligent decision mechanism system
(IDMS) is used to identify the best fuzzy-based predic-
tive model approach and the corresponding fuzzy-based
predictive control approach, at each instant of time. The
advantage of the proposed control scheme over other
related control techniques is to realize the strategy in the
absence of any linear model approximation of the com-
plex system. It points out that the proposed MFPMPC
scheme is the generalized version of the traditional
model based predictive control theory. Also the present
control structure aims us to develop it for all the highly
nonlinear and time variant systems in both real and aca-
demic environments.
5. References
[1] A. H. Mazinan and M. F. Kazemi, “An efficient solution
to load‐frequency control using fuzzy‐based predictive
scheme in a two–area interconnected power system,” The
2nd International Conference on Computer and Automa-
tion Engineering, 2010.
[2] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati, “An intelligent multiple
models based predictive control scheme with its applica-
tion to industrial tubular heat exchanger system,” Applied
Intelligence, Springer Publisher, DOI 10.1007/s10489-
009-0185-8, in press, 2009.
[3] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati, “Fuzzy predictive control
based multiple models strategy to a tubular heat ex-
changer system,” Applied Intelligence, Springer Publisher,
DOI 10.1007/s10489-009-0163-1, in press, 2009.
[4] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati, “On the application of
fuzzy predictive control based on multiple models strat-
egy to a tubular heat exchanger system,” Transactions of
the Institute of Measurement & Control, SAGE Publisher,
DOI 10.1177/0142331209345153, in press, 2009.
[5] A. H. Mazinan and A. H. Hosseini, ”Application of intel-
ligent based predictive scheme to load-frequency control
in a two-area interconnected power system,” Applied In-
telligence, in press, 2009.
[6] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati, “A comparative study on
applications of artificial intelligence based multiple mod-
els predictive scheme to industrial tubular heat exchanger
system,” ISA Transactions, Elsevier Publisher, in press,
2009.
[7] A. H. Mazinan, N. Sadati, and H. Ahmadi-Noubari, “A
case study for fuzzy adaptive multiple models predictive
control strategy,” in Proc. of IEEE World Symposium on
Industral Electronics, pp. 1172–1177, 2009.
[8] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati,”Fuzzy multiple models
predictive control of tubular heat exchanger,” in Proc. of
IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence, pp.
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[9] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati, “Multiple modeling and
fuzzy predictive control of a tubular heat exchanger sys-
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[10] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati, “Fuzzy multiple modeling
and fuzzy predictive control of a tubular heat exchanger
system,” International Conference on Application of
Electrical Engineering, pp. 77–81, 2008.
[11] A. H. Mazinan and N. Sadati, “Fuzzy multiple modeling
and fuzzy predictive control of a tubular heat exchanger
system,” International Conference on Robotics, Control
and Manufacturing Technology, China, pp. 93–97, April
2008.