The present study showed that avian influenza virus (AIV) occurred in the regions with rice and wheat productions under low ultraviolet (UV) radiation while there were negligible AIV outbreaks in the regions with a high rate of skin cancer due to extensive UV radiation. It is therefore proposed that having artificial UV radiation with poultry farmhouses is a simple solution to suppress AIV outbreaks. AIV outbreaks can be predicted a few months in advance by remote sensing satellite parameters such as Cosmos (minimum sunspot number, 10.7 cm solar flux, high UV radiation), Poles (CO 2, O 3 hole deterioration, hydroxyl layer temperature, ice-melting, chlorophyll or algae, krill, penguin, guillemot), and Continents (migratory birds, desert dust, low UV radiation, waters, fish, rice and wheat, climate). Since there was an abrupt 2% rise of global CO2 emissions in 2017, while the minimum sunspot number is simultaneously reached at the end of 2018, there can be an extensive UV radiation for mutant AIV in the Poles to have the highest degree of damage by AIV in regions such as U.S., East Asia, China, South Korea, Japan, west Africa, and Europe from November of 2018 till April of 2019.
Avian influenza viruses (AIV) cause widespread morbidity and mortality in a broad range of hosts such as birds, swine, companion animals, marine animals, and humans. In the early 21st century, anxiety over the danger of influenza A virus subtypes H5N1 (avian flu) and more recently H1N1 (swine flu) has revived memories of New Zealand’s worst disease outbreak, the lethal influenza pandemic that struck between October and December 1918 (http://nzhistory.govt.nz/culture/influenza-pandemic-1918). One third of the world population died (as many as 20 to 50 million) while there was half a million deaths only in the United States, as summarized by The American Association for Clinical Chemistry in 2016. Influenza A viruses are roughly spherical (80 - 120 nm) with glycoprotein spikes on the surface and genome consisting of eight RNA fragments that encode 10 proteins. The haemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA) and matrix (M2) proteins are embedded in the envelope lipid bilayer derived from the host cell. Since there are currently 18 HA and 11 NA subtypes, 198 combinations with 4 strains of A, B, C and D [
AIV can remain infectious in water for months and virus-contaminated surface water is considered to be a source of infection within wild waterfowl populations. The duration of AIV persistence was determined to be the longest in filtered surface water with low temperature (<17˚C), neutral-to-basic pH (7.0 to 8.5), low salinity (<5 ppt), and low ammonia concentration (<0.5 ppm) [
Factors suppressing AIV are temperature, relative humidity, pH, salinity, water, soil, rice, wheat, UV radiation, aquatic food web, desert dust, and migratory birds. Inactivation of the infectivity of HPAI H7N1 and H5N1 by environmental ultraviolet B flux (90 μW/cm2) took 158 min and 167 min for a reduction in titre of 1 log10 median tissue culture infectious dose, respectively [
The present study provides artificial UV radiation at 254 nm for destruction of AIV of H9N2 and also relates to the prediction of AIV outbreaks based on data such as global carbon dioxide emissions, minimum sunspot number, 10.7 cm solar flux, hydroxyl layer temperature, ozone hole and UV radiation.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) absorbs and emits infrared radiation at wavelengths of 4.26 µm and 14.99 µm to be a greenhouse gas that plays a vital role in regulating Earth’s surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. Ozone (O3) protects the earth’s surface from Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. CO2 increase with climate change expands and thins the ozone hole so that solar UV-B radiation is consequently increased to induce specific changes in lipid content and composition of Antarctic marine phytoplankton [
Marine mammals such as Baiji in China’s Yangtze River dolphin (
Year of appearance | Yearly global carbon emission rate (106 ton/yr) (CDIAC, 2018) | Year of minimal average daily sunspot area [ 12 ] | Virus subtype [ 27 ] | Host | Common designation | Estimated deaths |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1918 | 1000 | 1915 | H1N1 | Swine | Spanish | 100 million |
1957 | 2000 | 1955 | H2N2 | Duck | Asian | 86,000 in the USA |
1968 | 4000 | 1966 | H3N2 | Swine | Hong Kong | 34,000 in the USA |
1997 | 6000 | 1996 | H5N1 | Goose | Chicken or bird | 148 deaths from 2003 until October 2006 |
2004 | 3200 (China) 7812 (World) | 2006 | - | Baiji dolphin | Yangtze River | Yangtze River Baiji dolphin extinct |
2013 | 9740 (2012) | 2015 | H11N2 [ 13 ] | Adélie Penguin | Petrels Island, Antarctic Peninsula | 20,196 pairs, no chicks survived [ 14 ] |
2017 | 10,000 | 2018 | H5N5 [ 13 ] | Adélie Penguin | East Antarctica | 40,000 Ad lie Penguin deaths [ 15 ] |
As recently as the 1950s, there were an estimated 5000 Baiji living in China’s Yangtze River. Two years later, after a broad survey failed to find a single animal, the species was declared “functionally extinct.” The Yangtze River crosses the wide land of China from the left side to the right side of Shanghai. The shallow lake wetlands in the middle and lower Yangtze River floodplain are important wintering and stop-over habitats for migratory waterbirds on the East Asia-Australia Flyway from November 2006-April 2008 and from November 2008-April 2009. The Caize Lake and Shengjin Lake along the Yangtze River from Nov. 2007 to April 2009 showed wintering water birds (geese, swan, dunlin) reaching maximum at the end of December and in early January of the following year [
Although the Yangtze River dolphine seems to have disappeared, there are still mudfish, catfish, lungfish, and bullfrog, forming the reservoir of AIV transmitted by fecet of migratory birds. It is most likely that China is the main source of AIV outbreaks due to good habitats of AIV with rice production, lakes, rivers, climate, rainfall, low UV radiation, human population, fishes, wetlands, tidal mud flat, stop-over site, desert dust, and air pollution with high CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels. Therefore, without controlling the Chinese source of the spread of AIV, it is meaningless to suppress the AIV outbreak in all over the world.
Over the past 150 years at least four pandemics of influenza occurred at irregular intervals, including three in the 20th century (
Biological action spectra are commonly used to assess health and ecosystem responses to increases in spectral ultraviolet (UV) irradiances resulting from stratospheric ozone (O3) reductions [
radiate on the Earth. UV-C is completely absorbed in the upper atmosphere and used to sterilize the air and the water. There are NOAA Antarctic UV monitoring networks at three stations: South Pole Station, McMurdo Station, and Palmer Station equipped with Radiometers, whose data are collected every 15 minutes and processed into daily UV products (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/antuv/). An increase in the amount of UV radiation reaching the surface of the earth could have significant negative effects on human health, plants, and aquatic ecosystems. UV radiation acts as a natural environmental virucide because it causes photodimer formation between the pyrimidine bases in DNA and RNA, resulting in conformational changes that interrupt the viral replication process [
It is interesting to note that the global distribution of skin cancer death rates per 100,000 by country induced by UV-B radiation (
Such an opposite natural phenomena can be explained by the fact that the thin ozone hole in the Poles induces extensive UV radiation exposure causing skin cancer in countries (
The climate change induced by atmospheric increases of CO2 cause the ozone depletion with the increases of harmful ultraviolet radiation and subsequent increases of contents in Antarctic phytoplankton [
Maximal solar UV irradiance in wavelength 220 - 310 nm generating ozone O3 below 242 nm, showed the minimal ozone holes in the spring seasons (September - October) in Antarctica [
The large ozone hole in the Antarctic lasts only from September to December to increase the exposure to UV-B radiation causing mutation in DNA, suppressing the immune system and reducing the productivity of phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems (https://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/uv-exposure.html).
The decay of the ozone hole in Antarctic spring is proceeded by the maximal solar UV irradiation with the regular 27-day variation [
The average area of the Antarctic ozone hole was changed in September in the years of 1994 (20.5 × 106 km2), 1995 (11.1), 1996 (20.1), 1997 (18.3), 1998 (25.3), 1999 (21.4), 2000 (25.0), 2001 (23.0), 2002 (10.8), 2003 (25.8), while the 10.7 cm solar flux index showed the minimum in the year of 1995 [
The ozone hole reaches its annual maximum in September or October, at the end of winter in the Southern Hemisphere (NASA, 2017). It is likely that migratory birds are infected either in LPAI form or in mutant AIV by strong UV-B radiation in the Poles. When such infected birds move to the Hemispheres, there can be an HPAI spread due to weak UV-B radiation and enough feeding of rice/wheat, wetland, mineral-enriched desert dust in favorable environments (low temperature, low relative humidity, low salinity), similar to those of Antarctic Peninsula or sub-Antarctica with penguins.
Atmospheric ozone absorbing UV radiation is of considerable importance while the UV changes have been influenced by changes in aerosols, clouds, surface reflectivity and solar activity [
The ozone hole is defined as the area having less than 220 Dobson units of ozone to induce the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiations in south Africa, southern South America, New Zealand and Australia. Total
ozone (O3) over Antarctic during October has been decreasing since 1960, as shown in
The simple method to control the outbreak of AIV in the poultry farmlands is then to apply the artificial UV-B radiation to the aerosol and the drinking water of indoor poultry farmhouses so that the viral persistence and activity of AIV are suppressed by UV-B radiation. Since the ozone over Antarctic decreases with years (
Germicidal UV generator (UV-254 nm) (1.7 W) for the area 300 ft2 per unit was used in
Sterilization of drinking water UV sterilization apparatus (
The first case of HAPI in wild birds occurred in terns in South Africa in 1961 prior to the appearance of HPAI H5N1 in wild birds in Hong Kong in 2002 [
The result of sunspot area with years [
The period of January to March is generally considered the peak of the HPAI H5N1 season, when outbreak numbers increase following an active period of disease events/reports (October to December) (EMPRES/FAO-GLEWS, 2012), as shown in
AIV is detected in water, sediments and ice, where mudfish, catfish, lungfish and small fish are habitable. Rice and wheat live in wetlands with sufficient water. Therefore, it is likely that wild migratory birds stay at wetlands to eat AIV infected fishes, rice and wheat. Rice paddy fields form the important wetland habitat for wild waterfowls or migratory birds, thus increasing the chances of HPAI virus transmission to and from the domestic poultry [
Virus | Country |
---|---|
H5 | Palestine, Russia, Tunisia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Slovakia |
H5N1 | China, France, Ghana, India, Iraq, Laos, Lebanon, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Togo, Vietnam |
H5N2 | China, Taiwan, France, U.S.A. |
H5N3 | Taiwan |
H5N5 | Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Colombia, Cameroon, Netherlands, Montenegro |
H5N6 | China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Vietnam |
H5N8 | China, Taiwan, Croatia, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Iran, Israel, Korea, Netherlands, Nigeria, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Swiss, Tunisia, England, Greece |
H5N9 | France |
H7N1 | Algeria |
H7N3 | Mexico |
H7N7 | Italy |
H7N8 | U.S.A |
There are countries with rice trades above half million tons per year of 2016 as; Asia (Burma, Cambodia, India, Pakistan, Thailand, China, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Malaysia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Korea, United Arab Emirates), Europe (European Union), Africa (Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Senegal, Cameroon, Ghana), North America (United States, Cuba, Haiti, Canada) [
The maps of HPAI outbreaks [
and 1.5 million turkeys in Iowa from infection or depopulation due to exposure to the virus. Layer operations affected by HPAI across the U.S. are in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and South Dakota, and represent a significant percentage of pre-outbreak inventories, particularly for Iowa (52%) and Minnesota (nearly 40%). Turkey operations in Arkansas, California, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin have seen losses. The most significant losses have been in Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota who have lost 15%, 12% and 10% of their pre-outbreak inventories, respectively (http://www.poultrymed.com/Infectious-Disease-2015). The map of AIV number (
The timing and the location of AIV outbreak is predicted by satellite and ground station data such as desert dusts (Antarctic, Arctic and Continental deserts), climate (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind), migratory birds (species, latency time, flyways), ozone hole size (UV radiation), average daily sunspot number (10.7 cm solar flux), water (river, lake, reservoir, mudflat, pond), fish (mudfish, catfish, lungfish, bullfrog), and crops (rice and wheat).
The increases of global atmospheric CO2 or temperature induce the increase of UV radiation due to the decrease of ozone holes in the Poles. Such a climate change provides the strong UV radiation to cause the mutant AIV in the Poles for the AIV outbreaks in the Continents.
Since the global carbon dioxide emissions increase continuously in the Earth, the control parameter is then the minimal sunspot number or the 10.7 cm solar flux for the onset of mutant AIV in the Poles to be transmitted via migratory birds for HPAI outbreaks in the poultry and humans. The minimum sunspot number (minimal average daily sunspot area) or the 10.7 cm solar flux is the indicator of AIV outbreaks in the Continents a few months ahead of migratory birds with mutant AIV in the Poles.
Specifically, satellite data showing the maximal ozone depletion in the Arctic and the Antarctic induce the extensive UV radiation causing the onset of mutant AIV in the North and South Poles. Early warning of Continental AIV outbreaks at the poultry farmhouses and humans can be based on satellite data.
The ice-melting in Antarctica induces the low salinity with less algal and krill in the Antarctic Peninsula, which is a preferred environment to infect penguins with AIV. Penguins are a group of aquatic and flightless bird. Since krill feeding algae is the major prey of penguin, lack of krill immunity to AIV via infected virus, bacteria, and algae can cause LPAIV in penguins to be transmitted by migratory birds for ultimate spreading LPAIV in Continents. Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses are naturally occurring in wild birds such as ducks, geese, swans, and gulls. These viruses generally do not cause illness in wild birds. However, when spread to poultry they can be highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and cause illness and death in commercial farms [
Year of minimal average daily sunspot area1) | Outbreak of AIV2) (Strain, Year, Country) | Reference (Year) |
---|---|---|
1878 | 1878, Italy | [ 31 ] (1878) |
1890 | HPAI, 1894 | [ 32 ] (1926) |
1902 | HPAI, 1901 | [ 33 ] (1975) |
1914 | HPAI H1N1, 1918, Spain | [ 34 ] (2008) |
1924 | LPAI H6N2, 1924-1925, USA | [ 35 ] (2017) |
1934 | ||
1945 | ||
1955 | HPAI H2N2, 1957, Hong Kong/H5N3, 1961, South Africa/H5N1, 1959, Scotland | [ 36 ] (1955) |
1966 | HPAI H5N9, 1966, Ontario/H3N2, 1968, Hong Kong | [ 37 ] (2000) |
1976 | HPAI H7N7, 1976, Australia/ H1N1, 1979, Europe/Germany and England | [ 37 ] (2000) |
1984 | HPAI H5N2, 1983-1984, Pennsylvania/ H5N8, 1983, Ireland/H7N3, 1985, Australia | [ 38 ] (2011) |
1995 | HPAI H5N1, China, 1994, 1996, 1997/H5N2, 1994, Mexico | |
2006 | HPAI H7N3, 2004, Canada/H5N2, 2004, Texas and South Africa/H7N7, 2005, Korea/H5N1, 2005, China/H5N3, 2007, Canada/H5N8, 2010, East Asia, Europe, North America/HPAI H5N1, 2005, 2006, Eurasia | [ 38 ] (2011) |
2016 | LPAI H11N2, Antarctica, 2013/H5N5, Antarctica, 2015 HPAI H5N8, China, Korea, Japan, Germany, Netherland, UK, Italy, Russia, 2014/HPAI H5N6, China, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar/HPAI H5N2, British Colombia, Canada, Washington, and 20 states, USA |
Note: 1) [
AI Virus | Satellite Parameter (#; increase, $; decrease) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Independent | Dependent | ||||||||
Degree of Damage | Degree of AIV Mutation | CO2 # | Minimum Sunspot Number $ | O3 $ | UV # | Temperature # | Ice-Melting # | Algae $ | Krill $ |
1) High (●) | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● |
2) Middle (⦾) | ⦾ | ⦾ | ⦾ | ⦾ | ⦾ | ⦾ | ⦾ | ⦾ | ⦾ |
3) Low (○) | ○ | ○ | ○ | ○ | ○ | ○ | ○ | ○ | ○ |
The highest degree of damage by AIV outbreak in the Continents can be caused by the highest degree of AIV mutation when CO2 #, minimum sunspot number $ or 10.7 cm solar flux $, O3 $, UV #, temperature #, ice-melting #, algae $, and krill $. Since all of these satellite parameters are correlated to each other, the degrees of AIV outbreak and mutation with real time remote sensings of these satellite parameters can be predicted a few months ahead due to duration of migratory birds flights with mutant AIV from Poles prior to AIV outbreak in the Continents for proper preparedness of AIV damage to poultry farmhouses and humans.
Sunspots change through an average cycle of 11 years with 14 months standard deviation. Ultraviolet radiation increases dramatically during high sunspot activity. The converse is true during minimum sunspot activity (https://www.weather.gov/fsd/sunspots). Sunspot dynamics were reflected in human physiology and pathophysiology [
Low values of 10.7 cm solar flux in
The sunspot number showed the minimal value in 2009 and 2010 in
The Arctic ozone hole showed the lowest level for March 2011 (http://www.theozonehole.com/arcticozone.htm). Correspondingly, there were the outbreaks of AIV in Canada (H5N2, turkey, 2009, 2010; H1N1, turkey, 2009), in USA (H5N3, turkey, 2009; H5N2, chicken, 2010; H7N3, turkey, 2011; H7N9, chicken, turkey, goose, guinea fowl, 2010; H1N1, turkey, 2010), and in Mexico (H5N2, chicken, 2009, 2010, 2011). It can be concluded that the lowest level of the Arctic ozone hole in 2011 and minimal sunspot number in 2009 and 2010 might induce the outbreaks of AIV in the North America during 2009 to 2011. AIV was observed in Europe (Germany, UK, Austria, Croatia, Italy, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Russia), Asia (Israel, Gaza, Cyprus, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, India, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, South Korea, Japan), and Africa (Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Togo, Ghana, Cameroon, Niger, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti), where there are crops (rice and wheat), waters, desert dust, low UV radiation, and migratory birds. It may be possible to predict the timing and the location of the AIV outbreak via satellites and ground stations with parameters shown in
There was an abrupt 2% rise of global CO2 emissions in 2017 [
Recent AIV outbreaks in South Korea were summarized in
It is suggested that the increase of CO2 induces a sequentially thin ozone hole, increases of air temperature in Antarctica, UV radiation, and finally mutant AIV, the latter being transmitted from Poles to Continents via migratory birds for HPAI AIV outbreaks in Continents in favorable environments. Crucially, the Second Industrial Revolution is generally dated between 1870 and 1914 (Wikipedia, 2018) while the first HPAI occurred in Italy in 1878 [
The 11-year cycle of solar activity with a standard deviation of about 14 months is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. Increased solar activity includes increases in extreme ultraviolet and X-ray emissions from the Sun which produce dramatic effects in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Sunspots (dark patches on the Sun where intense magnetic fields loop up through the surface from the deep interior) discovered in 1844. The 10.7 cm solar flux is the disk integrated emission from the Sun at the radio wavelength of 10.7 cm (2800 MHz). This measure of solar activity has advantages over sunspot numbers and areas in that it is completely objective and can be made under virtually all weather conditions [
According to Planck-Einstein relation [
E = h f (1)
where h= Planck constant
f = frequency = c/λ
c = speed of light
λ = wavelength of light
E = h c / λ (2)
Energy is expressed by heat (Q) as,
Q = m C p Δ T
where m = mass
CP = heat capacity
∆T = temperature difference
Assuming the reference temperature is zero, then
Q = m C p T (3)
Combining (2) and (3),
E = ( h c ) ( m C P ) ( T / λ ) = C ( T / λ ) (4)
where C = ( h c ) ( m C P ) = constant .
Increase of global CO2 emissions induce a thin ozone layer for extensive UV radiation. Equation 4 implies that energy (E) is increased as intensity of UV radiation with low wavelength (λ) (increases to have the increase of hydroxyl layer temperature (T), as shown in
The ability to use the Hydroxyl layer to measure the temperature in the Antarctic mesosphere, makes the OH spectrometer an ideal instrument for monitoring middle-atmosphere temperatures for studies of climate change (Climate change in the mesosphere, www.antarctica.gov.au).
The degree of the sunspot number can be a good indicator of AIV outbreak.
There are three cases of AIV outbreak depending upon the sunspot number and the intensity of UV radiation in the Continents, as summarized in
Year | 2003/2004 | 2006/2007 | 2008 | 2010/2011 | 2014/2015 | 2016/2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Winter | Winter | Spring | Winter | Winter | Winter |
Culling (million) | 5.3 | 2.8 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 19.4 | 37.9 |
Strain Type | H5N1 | H5N1 | H5N1 | H5N1 | H5N8 | H5N8, H5N6 |
Money paid to farmer (US million dollars) | 87.4 | 33.9 | 181.7 | 80.7 | 238.1 | 257 |
Sunspot Number | 45 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 10 |
Case | Sunspot Number | *Intensity of UV Radiation | **Outbreak of AIV | Applicable Regions |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | lim Sun → M i n AIV = 1 | Low | Yes (1) | North America, East Asia, west Africa, Europe, South Korea, China, Japan |
2 | lim Sun → M a x AIV = 0 | Low | No (0) | North America, East Asia, west Africa, Europe, South Korea, China, Japan |
3 | lim Sun → M i n AIV = 0 | High | No (0) | New Zealand, Australia, southern South America, southern Africa, Scandinavian countries, Denmark, northern Russia, and northern Canada |
Notes; 1: Sun = Sunspot number. Min = Minimal sunspot number. AIV = Outbreak of AIV. **1 = Significant outbreak of AIV. 2: Max = Maximal sunspot number. **0 = Negligible outbreak of AIV. 3: **0 = Negligible outbreak of AIV with skin cancers. *: Low or high UV radiation.
The present study showed that AIV occurred in the regions with rice and wheat productions under low UV radiation while there were negligible AIV outbreaks in the regions with a high rate of skin cancer due to extensive UV radiation. It is therefore proposed that artificial UV radiation in poultry farmhouses is a simple solution to suppress AIV outbreaks. Furthermore, AIV outbreaks can be predicted a few months in advance by remote sensing satellite parameters such as Cosmos (minimum sunspot number, 10.7 cm solar flux, UV radiation), Poles (CO2, O3 hole, hydroxyl layer temperature, ice-melting, chlorophyll or algae, krill, penguin, guillemot), and Continents (migratory birds, Aeolian dust, UV radiation, waters, fish, rice and wheat, climate). Since there was an abrupt 2% rise of global CO2 emissions in 2017, while the minimum sunspot number is reached at the end of 2018, there can be extensive UV radiation for mutant AIV in the Poles to have the highest degree of damage by AIV in regions such as U.S., East Asia, China, South Korea, Japan, West Africa, and Europe from November of 2018 till April of 2019. However, low damages by AIV are expected in regions such as Australia, New Zealand, Scandinavian countries, and South America due to extensive UV radiation induced by thin ozone layers from the Poles.
The author expresses sincere gratitude to G-LAND and the University of Suwon of South Korea for their financial support.
The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.