Historically, the process of nutrition transition begins with the shifts in demographic transition, moving away from high to low mortality, high to low fertility, high percentage of young population to high proportion of elderly population, high to low population growth rate; and short to long life expectancy at birth. The objective is to identify where Nepal is in demographic transition and whether demographic transition is considered as one of the proximate covariates of nutrition transition. Nepal’s position in the demographic transition has been identified by using Popkin’s framework which is scaled from Pattern I to Pattern V. The time series trends indicated that new patterns of demographic transition have been observed during 1995-2010, which is similar to the pattern IV of the nutrition transition as described by Popkin. Before 1970, the death rates were fluctuating around 30 to 50 deaths per thousand populations. The birth rate per thousand populations was more than 44, which was really high. Both fertility and mortality appear to start declining from 1970. During 1995-2010, birth rate declined from 38 to 24 per thousand populations. The time series trends indicated that new patterns of demographic transition have been observed during 1990-2010, which is similar to the transition between Pattern III and IV of the nutrition transition. Nepal is a country with faster declined in mortality followed by fertility decline, increasing life expectancy above 60 years, decreasing age-structure of below 15 years of population, increasing trends of urban population and beginning of large scale international migration. It may be concluded from above evidences that Nepal is across the new pattern of transition after 1990s in the demographic transition including the increasing risk of chronic diseases of elderly people related to excess consumption of fat, sugar and process foods.
Demographic transition is a description of the observed long-term trends in fertility/mortality, age structure, and longevity and residency patterns [
A considerable amount of literature has been published on the demographic and nutrition transition in developing countries. These studies have indicated that demographic and nutrition transition is underway and rapid in such countries, with the simultaneous co-existence of undernutrition and obesity [
The main aim of the paper is to identify the demographic transition in Nepal over the past four decades. The specific objectives are as follow, to:
1) identify the shifts and time-series trends of population dynamics to explain where Nepal was in the demographic transition.
2) describe the patterns of these changes observed in population dynamics in Nepal.
3) locate Nepal within the Popkin’s frame-work of the nutrition transition.
This study adopts Popkin’s methodology for the identification of Nepal’s position in demographic transition [
Although time series data generally exhibit random fluctuations, a time series may also show gradual shifts or movements to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time. If a time series plot exhibits this type of behaviour, we say that a trend pattern exists. A trend exists usually with the long-term dynamic variables/factors such as changing demographic characteristics - crude birth rates, crude death rates, age structure, life expectancy at birth and urban populations.
The average annual percentage of change/growth of demographic proxy variables for the period of forty years starting from 1970 to 2010 have been computed using two methods. The first one is annual growth rate method hat that would take the country from first year’s level to the last. The formula for the average growth/change rate adopted for the computation is = {100*( / )^(1/ )}-100 [Or = {(1/time period-1) natural logarithm (ln) ( / )}*100].
The second one is ordinary least squares trend-line plotting method to predict the annual rate of growth for the exponential time line equation, which is minimizes the sum of squares of the difference between actual time series data and predicted time series data. Therefore, the estimated trend line is fitted best to capture the real trend of the past 40 years.
The data types included in the CBS/N databases were:
1) Population Censuses
Proxy Parameters | Explanatory variables | Data Sources (1970-2010) |
---|---|---|
Mortality & fertility | ・ Crude Death Rate ・ Crude Birth Rate ・ Population Growth | Census Surveys, Central Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Population, Nepal |
Age structure | ・ Young and Working Age Population Ratio ・ Elderly and Working Age Population Ratio | Annual Reports, Ministry of Population; and Statistical Reports, Central Bureau of Statistics, Nepal |
Life expectancy | ・ Average life expectancy at birth | Statistical Annual Reports, Central Bureau of Statistics |
Residency | ・ % Population Rural & Urban | Census Surveys, Central Bureau of Statistics |
2) Demographic Sample Surveys
3) Vital Registration
4) Population Registers
5) Administrative Statistics/Official records
According to broader framework of the nutrition transition, birth/death rates, age structure, life expectancy at birth, and residency patterns were considered as proxy foci to identify the position of demographic transition in Nepal. Age structure, prevalence of population ages 0 - 14; 15 - 64; and 65 and over, and young and old dependency ratios were considered as additional demographic explanatory variables. Young dependency ratio is defined as the proportion of 0 - 15 years’ population divided by 15 - 64 years’ population. Elderly/old dependency ratio is defined as the proportion of 65+ years’ population divided by 15 - 64 years’ population. Rural, urban, and total population were used as explanatory variables for residency patterns.
The operational definition of the variables used by national statistical office and computation techniques are presented as follows. Population growth rate, the annual growth rate of population, was computed based on the natural logarithmic technique. The crude birth rate (CBR) is a measure of the rate of births among a population; it measures growth or decline of a population. Similarly, the crude death rate (CDR) is a measure of the rate of deaths among a population. The natural increase (NI) of population can be observed from the difference between CBR and CDR in the population of 1000 (or 100). Rates of CBR, CDR and NI was available from the census data of CBS/N. Proportion of population ages <15, 15 - 64, >64 (% of total) are the population between the ages of defined category ages less than 15, 15 to 64, more than 64 years as a percentage of the total population. This information was available from population databases of Ministry of Health and Population, and census databases of the Central Bureau of Statistics.
Life expectancy at birth: the estimated number of years that a newborn could expect to live, if he or she were subject to the age-specific death rates of a given period. It measures how many years a new-born baby will be expected to live on average given current age-specific death rates. Life expectancy at birth is an indicator of longevity, mortality conditions and, by proxy, of health conditions. Age-specific death rates were required to compute the life expectancy at births that were available in the population databases of Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP), Nepal and census databases of CBS/N. Infant mortality rate; The number of infants, out of every 1000 babies born in a given year, who die before reaching age 1 [
However, the data gaps are also bridged up from the international databases including Population Reference Bureau (PRB) and United Nations Development Indicators to compare the countries of the south Asia. Initially, the data were collected in five years’ interval. Following this, the average annual rate of change for the past forty years starting from 1970 (or 1990) to 2010 was computed using natural logarithmic growth rate formula.
Initially the concept of “Demographic Transition” was developed by the American demographer Warren Thompson, by observing the changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so [
Demographic transition also called demographic evolution, each hypothesis established by many demographers such as Thompson, Notestein, Blacker, Davis and so on, many widely supported. They wanted to explain population change in association with the modernization processes, which started in the later part of the 19th century. However, it should be noted that this hypothesis is exclusively based on the historical experience of Western countries [
Embedded in the classical demographic transition theory is the concept of modernization and development, which brings about changes in mortality and fertility. Initially decline in mortality takes place and fertility decline is the response to this decline in mortality. Timing of fertility response depends on the level of development and modernization in the countries concern [
However the European fertility project which found no evidences of association between socioeconomic development and demographic change [
Although there is still some controversy over the demographic transition theory, it is still an important theory commonly discussed to explain the demographic changes, which are taking place around the world. The first stage of demographic change is the time when the both the fertility and mortality fluctuate and are quite high. This is the period when the natural growth rate of the population is quite low [
At the third stage, fertility also starts to decline as a response to declining mortality. Finally the fourth stage is when fertility and mortality are quite close and fertility is close to response replacement and fluctuates according to different environmental conditions [
The outcome of demographic transition has been already capitalised by the western and Southeast Asian countries through demographic “dividend”. The demographic dividend is delivered through a number of mechanisms. The most important are labour supply, gross domestic savings, and human capital formation [
The demographic transition affects labour supply in two ways. First, there is an essentially mechanical effect, based on the regular and inevitable aging of the baby boom generation. When this generation is between 15 and 64, it is more likely to be working, thus lowering the ratio of dependents to non-dependants [
Second, women are more likely to enter the workforce, as family size declines. This effect is magnified by the fact that, with adult women themselves more likely to have been brought up in small families, they are more likely to be educated [
The demographic transition also encourages the growth of savings, thus improving a country’s prospects for investment and growth [
Incentives to make certain choices can reinforce this tendency to save among the new young baby boomers Improved health, and longevity, make saving easier and more attractive [
Finally, the demographic transition has significant effects on investments in human capital; effects that are the least tangible, but may be the most significant and far-reaching [
As life expectancy increases, parents are likely to choose to educate their children to more advanced levels. Healthier children, in turn, tend to experience greater cognitive development per year of schooling than their less healthy counterparts [
All these mechanisms are heavily dependent on the policy environment. A growing number of adults will only be productive if there is sufficient flexibility in the labour market to allow its expansion, and macroeconomic policies that permit and encourage investment [
Finally, the demographic transition creates conditions where people will tend to invest in their health and education, offering great economic benefits, especially in the modern worlds increasingly sophisticated economies [
Nepal’s population of 28.8 million seems very small compared to its giant neighbours, India and China. Its high rate of population growth has been a matter of great concern for the country. The inter census annual population growth rate of Nepal was 2.05% in 1970s, but it was 1.3%, still high, in 2011. The increase in population in inter census period during 1970s was 22.7 percent in 1070, but it was 14.4 percentage in 2011. International migration has also begun in Nepal from 1991 and net out migration reached to 1,690,938 in 2010 (
The increasing number of net out migration is an unclear matter in Nepal because there may be confounding effects of internal as well as international migration from the open boarder. There may be internal migration from the Mountain and Hill regions to the Terai, but the evidence of these figures migration are not clear. On the other hand, there is also a free flow of migrants across the open boarder between India and Nepal, which may be a very imprecise issue to infer.
The major two primary demographic processes that determine the structure, distribution and growth of any population are birth and death rates. The death rates in Nepal declined remarkably for the first time during 1970-1990 followed by the decline in birth rates during 1990-2010. Death rates are approaching the lower level, but birth rates are falling down but they are still relatively higher.
Crude death rates have decreased over the past four decades; but the population is still growing. The CDR per 1000 population has decreased from 22.2 in 1970 to 6.2 in 2010. Similarly, Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) per 1000 population has decreased from 167.3 in 1970 to 47.1 in 2010. The CBR per 1000 population decreased from 43.9 in 1970 to 25.6 in 2010. The TFR per woman has also decreased from 6.4 to 3.0 from 1970 to 2010. The overall population is still growing by 2.3% per annum.
Mortality in Nepal started to decline before the 1970s and the pace of mortality decline has become faster since the 1990s. CDR was a little over 35 in 1950s, which decreased to less than 20 in 1970s and further to 6.2
Census year | Total Population | Inter-census population Change | Inter-census Natural Increase | Inter-census net migration (estimate) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1971 | 11,555,983 | 2,142,987 | 2,542,316 | −399,329 |
1981 | 15,022,839 | 3,466,856 | 3,154,796 | 312,060 |
1991 | 18,491,097 | 3,468,258 | 4,622,774 | −1,154,516 |
2001 | 23,151,423 | 4,660,326 | 5,556,342 | −896,016 |
2011 | 26,494,504 | 3,343,018 | 5,033,956 | −1,690,938 |
in 2010. IMR of around 250 per thousand live births prevailed in the country during the fifties [
Fertility in Nepal was declining slowly till nineties, and thereafter, it started to decline in the greater pace. The CBR is around 25 per thousand in Nepal in 2010. The level of TFR till mid-nineties was around 5. A substantial reduction in fertility can be seen during the period 2000 to 2010 when a decline of more than one child per women was observed.
The time series trend line of birth rates, crude (per 1000 people) computed from least squares trend line plotting method shows that the trend line explains approximately 96.0% of reality (R2 = 0.8592). The real annual rate of decline of birth rates, crude (per 1000 people) is 1.3% (
The time series trend line of death rates, crude (per 1000 people) computed from least squares trend line plotting method shows that the trend line explains approximately 99.3% of reality (R2 = 0.9929). The real annual rate of decline of birth rates, crude (per 1000 people) is 3.1% (
Above statistics indicate that Nepal and Pakistan are, little bit behind in demographic transition whereas the demographic transition in other South Asian countries is faster than Nepalese transition, because the CBR, TFR and population growth rates are still high in Nepal compared to the other South Asian Countries (
The population of Nepal is comprised primarily a below 15-year population, and since the 1970s, it has always remained young. More than 36 percent of present population is under 15 years of age. More than half of the population is in the age group 15 - 64. This age structure indicates approximately one person is in the working ages (15 - 64 years) has to take care of more than one infant/young and old populations. This age structure with high dependency on working age population is mainly due to high fertility and declining mortality in all ages, particularly in below 15 ages.
The young population is relatively decreasing in Nepal, but the working age populations have been gradually increasing over the past four decades. From 1990 to 2010, the prevalence of young people (0 - 14 years) has been decreasing annually by 0.3%. An increase of 0.2% is found for the group aged 15-64 years. The important point here is that a large cohort population is entering into the working age group in coming 10 to 15 years, which is going to create large dividend to the economy if the country can invest for human capital formation. There has been an annual decrease in the young dependency ratio of 0.5%. On the other hand, the elderly population aged 65 and over, has also increased by an annual rate of 0.9%. In 1970 a large prevalence of the population (41.5%) was under 15 years of age, which decreased to 36.2% in 2010.
The time series trend line of population ages 0 - 14 (% of total) computed from least squares trend line plotting method shows that the trend line explains approximately 44.0% of reality (R2 = 0.4417). The real annual rate of decline of population ages 0 - 14 (% of total) is 0.20 % (
BR (1000) | DR (1000) | NI (1000) | IMR (1000) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Bangladesh | 23 | 6 | 17 | 43 |
Bhutan | 20 | 7 | 13 | 47 |
India | 22 | 7 | 15 | 47 |
Nepal | 24 | 6 | 18 | 46 |
Pakistan | 28 | 8 | 20 | 68 |
Sri Lanka | 18 | 6 | 22 | 12 |
The time series trend line of population ages 15 - 64 (% of total) computed from least squares trend line plotting method shows that the trend line explains approximately 18.4% of reality (R2 = 0.1842). The real annual rate of increase of population ages 15 - 64 (% of total), is 0.1% (
The time series trend line of ratio of dependents to working age population computed from least squares trend line plotting method shows that the trend line explains approximately 19.0% of reality (R2 = 0.1878). The real annual rate of decline of dependents to working age population is 0.1% (
The expectation of life at birth for males was 27.1 in 1955 [
The time series trend line of life expectancy at birth computed from least squares trend line plotting method shows that the trend line explains approximately 99.2% of reality (R2 = 0.9919). The real annual rate of growth of life expectancy at birth is 1.2% (
The residency pattern in Nepal has greatly changed. The proportion of urban population, considered as a proxy of urbanisation in Nepal, increased from 4.0% in 1970 to 21.0% in 2010. This includes natural increase and migration to the cities.
The time series trend line of total population (R2 = 0.9995), rural population (R2 = 0.9972) and urban population (R2 = 0.9988) computed from least squares trend line plotting method show that these trend lines explains approximately 99.9% of reality. The real annual rate of growth of urban population is 6.3%. The trend line equation in the graph indicates that the residency pattern in terms of urban population was increased by more than six per cent per year (
Altogether Hill and Mountain regions comprise 77% of the total land area and have about 49.7% of the total population in 2011. Terai region comprises 23% of the total land area and contains 50.3% of the population (
The proportion of Mountain and Hill regions population to total population was 62.4% in 1971, but it reached to 50.27% in 2011. The proportion of Terai region population to total population was 37.6 percent in 1971, but it reached to 50.3 percent in 2011 (
Census yrs. | Mountains | Hill | Mountain and Hill | Terai | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1971 | 1,138,610 (9.9) | 6,071,407 (52.5) | 7,210,017 (62.4) | 4,345,966 (37.6) | 11,555,983 |
1981 | 1,302,896 (8.7) | 7,163,115 (45.5) | 8,466,011 (56.4) | 6,556,828 (43.6) | 15,022,839 |
1991 | 1,443,130 (7.8) | 8,419,889 (45.5) | 9,863,019 (53.3) | 8,628,078 (46.7) | 18,491,097 |
2001 | 1,687,859 (7.3) | 10,251,111 (44.3) | 11,938,970 (51.6) | 11,212,453 (48.4) | 23,151,423 |
2011 | 1,781,792 | 11,394,007 | 13,175,799 | 13,318,705 | 26,494,504 |
(6.7) | (43.0) | (49.7) | (50.3) |
emigration in the Terai is not clear because there may be due to internal and/or international migration from the open boarder.
Since 1950, Asia has witnessed a dramatic demographic transition, affecting the population growth rate, deaths, and births. It has implications for the environment, schooling, the position of women and social security [
The population growth rates across Asia’s three regions differ greatly, ranging from 0.6% in East Asia, 1.3% in South-east Asia to 1.7% in South Asia (Mari-Bhat, 2002). Projected over the next 20 years, 65% of the increase in population (492 out of 757 million) will be in South Asia, which by 2025 would account for close to half of the population of Asia (46.2%) [
Like industrial revolutions, the demographic transition takes many decades in 19th century Europe, but it has been much faster in post war Asia. The practices, investments, and technologies that had been development and put into practice in Europe did not exist in Asia [
Asia’s demographic transition followed the stylized model by starting with a decline in mortality rates. By the late 1940s, the crude death rate began declining very rapidly everywhere in Asia. The decline proceeded most rapidly in east Asia and it was accompanied by an increase in life expectancy from 61.2 to 74.6 years from 1960 to 1992 [
There are a number of possible explanations for the rapid decline in Asian child mortality in the middle of the century, which, after all, was the real force driving the age distribution over the first two phases of the demographic transition. One possibility has already been suggested: in the 1940s, Asia escaped from four or five decades of relative isolation, ushering in an era of health technology transfer and diffusion of new public health programs and techniques [
The demographic transition in East Asia was mostly exogenous. Like the stylized version, the infant mortality decline in the Asian demographic transition was followed, with a lag, by decline in fertility [
There are, of course, a number of possible explanations for the decline in fertility. Two well-known demographers argue that government intervention mattered a great deal and that the intervention was distinctly Asian [
The pace and timing of the demographic transition has led to enormously divergent trends in population growth and population age structure across Asia [
The ratio of working-age population to non-working―age population is rising in Asia seen 1975, but this increase has been especially dramatic in East Asia [
During the period 1950-2004, mortality decline sharply in most countries of Asia and preceded the fertility decline, by several decades in many cases. The CDR dropped by two-thirds from around 24 per 1000 during the early 1959s to eight per 1000 in 2004 [
Notwithstanding these dramatic improvements, the gap between high and low mortality countries continues to be wide, and wider still in under-five mortality. The under-five morality rate per 1000 live births ranges from 89 in South Asia, 53 in South-east Asia to 39 in East Asia, and 10 per 1000 (or less) in Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore [
The gender differences in mortality and life expectancy in the South Asia region stand out as being contrary to the usual pattern. The mortality rate for girls (aged 0 - 5) is higher than the corresponding rates for boys, which reflects the widespread preferential treatment of boys [
With a delay following the downward trend in mortality, the total fertility rate in Asia has dropped sharply from six children in the 1950s to 2.4 births per woman in 2000 [
In terms of the TFRs, South-east Asia is the most heterogeneous region with member countries in all three columns. In contrast, East Asia is the most homogeneous; bar Mongolia, every country in the region has a below-replacement TFR and the region as whole is in the final stage of transition. Similarly, apart from Sri Lanka, every country in South Asia has a higher than replacement level TFR [
The demographic transition that Asian countries would face in the near future will vary with the stages of the transition. In the countries in the initial phase of the transition with a high TFR and population growth rate, such as Afghanistan, Cambodia, Laos, Nepal and Pakistan, the challenge would be to educate the swelling numbers of children in the age group 6 - 14, and to provide employment to the entrants to the labour force [
Population migration, mostly rural-to-urban and associated urbanisation, which does both widen economic opportunities open to the labour force; and create problems such as the increased pressure on the exploitation of natural resources [
Before 1970, the death rates in Nepal were fluctuating around 30 to 50 deaths per thousand populations. The birth rate per thousand populations was more than 44, which was really high. Both fertility and mortality appear to start declining from 1970. During 1995-2010, birth rates declined from 38 to 24 per thousand populations. The population of Nepal is still growing faster. In terms of demographic transition, it is still relatively young because approximately 60% of population is of below 15 years, while the national average life expectancy at birth is approximately 68 years, and elderly dependency ratio is very low [
Patterns/ Variables | Pattern I: Collecting food | Pattern II: Famine | Pattern III: Receding Famine | Pattern IV: Degenerative diseases | Pattern V: Behavioural Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mortality /fertility | High mortality and low fertility | High fertility and high infant and maternal mortality | Mortality declines faster, fertility declines slowly and population rises | Low mortality and fertility; and fertility below replacement | Low mortality and fertility-replacement level |
Age structure | Natural balance | High infant dependency ratio | High young people dependency ratio | Elderly dependency ratio rises | High elderly population dependency ratio |
Life expectancy | Low | Short life and life expectancy less than 55 years | Medium range of life-life expectancy under 60 years | Life expectancy 60 plus years; decreases under 15 population | Life-expectancy more than 70 years; long life |
Residency | Low density of population | Dominance of rural settlements | Rural urban migration begins | Urban population disperses and emigration begins | Expansion of small low dense cities |
Nepal’s position in the demographic transition has been identified by using Popkin’s framework which is scaled from Pattern I to Pattern V (
Yagya Prasad Subedi,Padam Simkhada,Edwin van Teijlingen, (2016) Where Is Nepal in the Demographic Transition within the Wider Context of the Nutrition Transition?. Open Journal of Social Sciences,04,155-166. doi: 10.4236/jss.2016.45019