The study examines the economic impact of climate change. This is done through a field survey design which involves survey of marketers in Port Harcourt with the aid of archival data from Port Harcourt. Climate data were collected from the archives of Nigeria Meteorological Agency from 1950 to 2015 based on the availability of data. And data on prices and quantity of umbrella, cement, ice cream, cream, palm oil, rubber sander, cold sachet water sold, etc. were extracted from the traders’ dairies from 2004 to 2014. The data collected were presented in tables and descriptive diagrams, and analyzed with the multiple regression analysis; this was done to determine the effect of rainfall and temperature on prices of goods in the city. The results revealed an evidence of climate change in Port Harcourt with an increase of 1581 mm and 3°C for rainfall and temperature, and double rain maxima in the months of July and September. It also confirms the concept of econo-climate by establishing strong correlation between rainfall and temperature and price of goods demanded and supplied. The price and the quantity of goods demanded and supplied are significantly dependent on the amount of rainfall and temperature in the area, and as such the quantity of goods demanded and supplied negates the law of demand and supply which states that the higher the price, the higher the quantity supplied in the area. On this premise planners at the federal, state and local government levels are advised to incorporate climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in urban renewer and planning to avoid unforeseen climate disasters in our urban areas.
Climate change and variability affect countries’ economies and households through a variety of channels [
Adding up these country level effects from climate change is likely to have impacts on the global economy through changes in global supply, trade flows and commodity prices. Depending on the net importing or exporting position of countries and the net producing and consuming status of households of specific commodities affected, countries and households are likely to be affected differently by climate change. [
This study adopted the concept of econo-climate in explaining the economic impact of climate change. According to [
The study employs the field survey design that involves survey of traders in Port Harcourt through the use of archival data from Port Harcourt. Climate data were collected from the archives of Nigeria Meteorological Agency from 1950-2015 based on the availability of data. And data on prices of some goods (umbrella, Cement, Ice cream, Cream and Palm oil, rubber sander, cold sachet water etc were extracted from the traders’ dairies from 2004-2014. These goods were selected based on the marketer’s view that they are the most weather sensitive goods in the area. And the choice of 2004-2014 years is based on availability of data in the marketers dairies, continuity and consistency of records. Therefore the quantity and price of Coca Cola, baby pears, umbrella, sachet water, cement, ice cream, cream and palm oil etc. were collected and used for the study. The metropolis was stratified into 5 zones (A Ikwerre road, Afam street, B Olu-Obasanjo road, Port Horcourt Aba Express road, C Old Aba road, Choba/Elekahia road, D East West road, and E Trans Amadi) (see
Data collected were summarized in tables and descriptive diagrams and multiple regression analysis was used to determine the effect of rainfall and temperature on prices of sachet water, baby pear umbrella, cement, ice bock, cream and palm oil etc.
The climate characteristics, quantity and price of goods sold in Port Harcourt are discussed in this section.
there is a gradual rise in temperature from 1950-2015; this is evident with temperature values of 26.9˚C, 27.4˚C and 27.5˚C for three epochs (1950-1979, 1980-2009 and 2010-2015). And the linear trend line showed that a rise temperature correlated strongly with increase in years with R value of 0.94. This trend pattern of rainfall and temperature is an evidence of climate change in Port Harcourt. This is confirmed with a decrease of 377 mm in rainfall from the first epoch (1950-1979), and an increase of 354 mm from the second epoch (1980-2009) to the last epoch (2010-2015). This has triggered flood hazards in the area. Temperature on the other hand had a rise of 0.5˚C from the first epoch (1950-1979) to the second epoch (1980-2009), and a rise of 0.1˚C from the second epoch to the third epoch (2010-2015).
From
Climate Elements | 1950-1959 | 1960-1969 | 1970-1979 | 1980-1989 | 1990-1999 | 2000-2009 | 2010-2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rainfall (mm) | 2261.52 | 2682.83 | 2244.57 | 2264.12 | 2377 | 2306.67 | 2670.4 |
Departure (mm) | 209.42 | 421.31 | −438.26 | 19.55 | 112.88 | −70.33 | 363.73 |
Temperature (°C) | 26.48 | 27.38 | 27.02 | 27.39 | 27.31 | 27.36 | 27.5 |
Departure(°C) | 1.48 | 0.9 | ?0.36 | 0.37 | ?0.08 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
Months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rainfall (mm) | 28 | 64 | 130 | 174 | 255 | 273 | 359 | 306 | 368 | 268 | 100 | 30 |
Temp ˚C | 27 | 27.4 | 28.6 | 28.3 | 27.6 | 26.8 | 26.1 | 26.2 | 26 | 26.7 | 27.1 | 27.2 |
There is double recession or fall in temperature in July (26.1˚C) and September (26˚C) (see
The quantity of goods sold in Port Harcourt from 2004-214 is presented in
These quantities are: sachet water span 4181 - 5687 bags (2004) with a mean of 4675 bags, Palm oil recorded 1001 to 1670/per 20 litres (2004-2014) and a 1194/20litres mean value, Okra 718 baskets mean and it range from 550 - 980 baskets, cement had a 4754 bags mean value that ranges from 3480 - 6698 bags. Others are Coca Cola span 470 - 1098 with mean value of 738 bags; Umbrella had a mean of 722 that span 586 - 932; Rubber shoes recorded 276 mean and ranges from 201 - 420; Ice cream had a mean of 649/pe dozen and range 460 - 920/dozen; mentholator had 2106 mean value and varies from 1535 - 2610; and Baby Pears lotion/oil span 367 - 854 with a mean value of 519 (see
Generally fro
Months | Sarchet water/bag | Palm oil/ 20 litres | Okra/basket | Cement | Coca Cola/ creates | Umbrella | Rubber shoe | Ice cream/ pack of 12 | Rob/ mentholator | Pears lotion |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | 4182 | 1001 | 550 | 3480 | 479 | 586 | 201 | 460 | 1535 | 367 |
2005 | 4198 | 1067 | 590 | 3500 | 502 | 590 | 205 | 495 | 1780 | 386 |
2006 | 4210 | 1088 | 603 | 3500 | 530 | 610 | 205 | 503 | 1956 | 403 |
2007 | 4256 | 1100 | 610 | 3689 | 560 | 638 | 203 | 540 | 2000 | 432 |
2008 | 4300 | 1100 | 630 | 3860 | 640 | 683 | 231 | 506 | 2002 | 450 |
2009 | 4367 | 1158 | 678 | 4021 | 692 | 705 | 275 | 584 | 2000 | 472 |
2010 | 4389 | 1164 | 705 | 4785 | 768 | 735 | 300 | 650 | 2140 | 498 |
2011 | 5056 | 1200 | 780 | 5758 | 852 | 766 | 310 | 720 | 2200 | 520 |
2012 | 5382 | 1270 | 850 | 6488 | 979 | 889 | 331 | 869 | 2356 | 579 |
2013 | 5400 | 1287 | 920 | 6510 | 1020 | 810 | 356 | 896 | 2589 | 751 |
2014 | 5687 | 1670 | 980 | 6698 | 1098 | 932 | 420 | 920 | 2610 | 854 |
Mean | 4675 | 1191 | 718 | 4754 | 738 | 722 | 276 | 649 | 2106 | 519 |
Source: sales dairies of major dealers 2004-2014.
Months | Searchet water/bag | Palm oil/ 20 litres | Okra/ basket | Cement | Coca Cola/ creates | Umbrella | Rubber Shoe | Ice cream/ pack of 12 | Rob/ mentholator | Pears lotion |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 660 | 120 | 32 | 750 | 93 | 12 | 15 | 84 | 220 | 67 |
Feb | 630 | 120 | 58 | 620 | 86 | 15 | 17 | 90 | 165 | 65 |
March | 630 | 116 | 68 | 730 | 82 | 18 | 20 | 87 | 165 | 50 |
April | 560 | 109 | 74 | 674 | 79 | 20 | 27 | 88 | 156 | 47 |
May | 535 | 93 | 74 | 600 | 71 | 58 | 30 | 75 | 168 | 40 |
June | 320 | 88 | 78 | 262 | 60 | 63 | 35 | 73 | 180 | 33 |
July | 156 | 87 | 100 | 85 | 55 | 130 | 50 | 32 | 260 | 32 |
Aug | 386 | 90 | 95 | 120 | 67 | 106 | 42 | 58 | 245 | 39 |
Sept | 110 | 82 | 100 | 67 | 50 | 185 | 56 | 30 | 265 | 29 |
Oct | 367 | 110 | 54 | 682 | 85 | 65 | 16 | 76 | 167 | 37 |
Nov | 420 | 125 | 33 | 830 | 98 | 45 | 13 | 87 | 175 | 66 |
Dec | 608 | 130 | 34 | 858 | 152 | 15 | 10 | 89 | 200 | 69 |
Mean | 5382 | 1270 | 800 | 6278 | 978 | 732 | 331 | 869 | 2366 | 574 |
Source: sales dairies of major dealers.
However, rob and mentholator sales is high in December and January because of harmatan season experienced. The increase in quantity of sachet water, rob/mentholator, palm oil and cement sold all through the year and season according to the inhabitants and the traders is due to the fact that these products used throughout the seasons of the year, be cold and warm season. This corroborated [
Years | Oil palm | Okro | Corn | Cement | Umbrella | Sharp sand | Zinc | Nails | Coca-Cola drink |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | 2500 | 13,000 | 2700 | 1400 | 200 | 1500 | 7600 | 680 | 850 |
2005 | 2500 | 14,000 | 2500 | 1500 | 250 | 2000 | 7600 | 700 | 850 |
2006 | 3000 | 15,500 | 2800 | 1600 | 300 | 2000 | 7600 | 700 | 980 |
2007 | 3500 | 17,000 | 2800 | 1650 | 300 | 2000 | 7900 | 750 | 980 |
2008 | 4000 | 18,000 | 3000 | 1550 | 350 | 3500 | 8050 | 790 | 950 |
2009 | 6000 | 19,000 | 2800 | 1700 | 350 | 3500 | 8050 | 790 | 950 |
2010 | 7500 | 19,500 | 3000 | 1650 | 400 | 3000 | 8200 | 790 | 1000 |
2011 | 6000 | 20,000 | 3200 | 1750 | 400 | 3000 | 8300 | 900 | 1000 |
2012 | 6500 | 20,000 | 3500 | 1800 | 450 | 3000 | 8350 | 990 | 1000 |
2013 | 6500 | 20,000 | 7000 | 1850 | 500 | 3000 | 8300 | 835 | 1000 |
2014 | 6700 | 20,300 | 9000 | 1900 | 600 | 3200 | 8500 | 850 | 1050 |
2015 | 7200 | 21,000 | 10,000 | 2000 | 650 | 3700 | 8620 | 900 | 1050 |
Mean | 5158 | 18,108 | 4358 | 1696 | 396 | 2783 | 8261 | 806 | 972 |
Months | Searchet water/bag | Palm oil/ 20 litres | Okra/ basket | Cement | Coca Cola/ creates | Umbrella | Rubber sanderr | Ice cream/ pack of 12 | Rob/ mentholator | Pears lotion/oil |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 120 | 4500 | 21,000 | 1850 | 1000 | 200 | 150 | 240 | 125 | 250 |
Feb | 110 | 4500 | 21,100 | 1850 | 980 | 210 | 150 | 240 | 125 | 250 |
March | 120 | 4800 | 14,500 | 1600 | 980 | 300 | 150 | 240 | 130 | 250 |
April | 120 | 5500 | 15,500 | 1650 | 980 | 300 | 155 | 240 | 140 | 250 |
May | 110 | 5700 | 17,000 | 1550 | 950 | 310 | 155 | 240 | 140 | 250 |
June | 100 | 5700 | 17,500 | 1700 | 950 | 360 | 155 | 220 | 145 | 250 |
July | 100 | 6650 | 190,00 | 1650 | 850 | 610 | 220 | 200 | 160 | 255 |
Aug | 100 | 6500 | 19,500 | 1750 | 850 | 400 | 220 | 200 | 160 | 255 |
Sept | 100 | 7400 | 14,500 | 1500 | 850 | 670 | 250 | 200 | 167 | 300 |
Oct | 100 | 4550 | 20,000 | 1850 | 950 | 455 | 150 | 240 | 160 | 250 |
Nov | 110 | 4600 | 21,800 | 1950 | 1000 | 269 | 160 | 240 | 150 | 250 |
Dec | 120 | 4700 | 21,950 | 2000 | 1050 | 250 | 150 | 240 | 150 | 250 |
Mean | 109.17 | 5425 | 18612.5 | 1741.67 | 949.17 | 361.17 | 172.08 | 228.33 | 146 | 255 |
Source: sales dairies of major dealers.
Tables 7-10 showed the results of the regression analyses performed to establish the effects of rainfall and temperature on goods in Port Harcourt.
From
Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.996(a) | 0992.000 | 0.896 | 7.42587 |
(a)Predictors: (constant), pears, sachet, okra, rob, palm oil, umbrella, Coca Cola, cement, ice cream, rubber sander.
Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std. Error | Beta | B | Std. Error | ||
1 | (Constant) | 1485.951 | 154.565 | 9.614 | 0.066 | |
Sachet | −2.096 | 0.975 | −0.652 | −2.150 | 0.277 | |
Palm oil | 0.046 | 0.014 | 0.664 | 3.209 | 0.192 | |
Okra | 0.000 | 0.003 | −0.609 | 0.145 | 0.909 | |
Cement | −0.164 | 0.093 | −0.511 | −1.776 | 0.326 | |
Coca Cola | −1.241 | 0.362 | −0.659 | −3.428 | 0.181 | |
Umbrella | 0.140 | 0.057 | 0.769 | 2.442 | 0.247 | |
Rubber sander | −2.503 | 0.660 | 0.723 | −3.791 | 0.164 | |
Ice cream | 0.387 | 0.838 | −0.554 | 0.462 | 0.725 | |
Rob | 3.163 | 0.466 | 0.666 | 6.792 | 0.093 | |
Pears | −0.079 | 0.562 | 0.509 | −0.140 | 0.911 |
(a)Dependent variable: rainfall.
Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.990(a) | 0.980 | 0.777 | 0.38030 |
(a)Predictors: (constant), pears, sachet, okra, rob, palm oil, umbrella, Coca Cola, cement, ice cream, rubber sander.
Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std. Error | Beta | B | Std. Error | ||
1 | (Constant) | 24.902 | 7.916 | 3.146 | 0.196 | |
Sachet | 0.001 | 0.050 | 0.510 | 0.017 | 0.989 | |
Palm oil | 0.000 | 0.001 | −0.499 | −0.312 | 0.808 | |
Okra | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.686 | −1.231 | 0.434 | |
Cement | −0.001 | 0.005 | 0.555 | −0.165 | 0.896 | |
Coca cola | −3.60E−005 | 0.019 | 0.603 | −0.002 | 0.999 | |
Umbrella | 0.000 | 0.003 | −0.584 | 0.154 | 0.903 | |
Rubber sander | 0.010 | 0.034 | 0.464 | 0.308 | 0.810 | |
Ice cream | 0.051 | 0.043 | 1.094 | 1.187 | 0.446 | |
Rob | 0.006 | 0.024 | −0.414 | 0.267 | 0.834 | |
Pears | −0.025 | 0.029 | −0.444 | −0.867 | 0.545 |
(a)Dependent variable: temp.
standardized beta coefficients in
From
Months | Price | Mean Qt Demanded | Mean Qt Supplied | % Supplied |
---|---|---|---|---|
Before flood | 9000 | 128 | 128 | 100 |
1st month | 15,000 | 129 | 90 | 70 |
2nd month | 18,000 | 360 | 102 | 28 |
517 | 320 | 45 |
Price (N) | Mean Qt Demanded | Mean Qt Supplied | % Supplied |
---|---|---|---|
200 | 150 | 94 | 63 |
400 | 100 | 53 | 53 |
600 | 60 | 29 | 48 |
800 | 20 | 8 | 40 |
1000 | 6 | 2 | 33 |
Total | 336 | 186 | 55.4 |
The study has demonstrated that the economy of Port Harcourt is dependent on climate change. It revealed that Port Harcourt experiences rainfall of 2375 mm and temperature of 27.2˚C with an increase of 1581 mm and 3˚C for rainfall and temperature respectively from 1950 to 2015. This increase in rainfall and temperature indicates an evidence of climate change which precipitated other ecological hazards like urban heat island, the 2012 flood, and acid rain in the area and thus impacted negatively on the economy of Port Harcourt. It is showed that the prices of umbrella, rubber sander, baby pears oil cream, palm oil, and rob/mentholator increase with increasing rainfall; cement, ice cream, cold sachet water, okro and Coca Cola prices on the other hand reduce with increase in rainfall. The prices of these good are also significantly dependent on the temperature experienced over the season and year, and thus it is also revealed that the quantities of garri and fishes demanded and supplied decrease with increase in price which negates the law of supply, which states that the higher the price, the higher the quantity supplied. Hence the prices is directly proportionate to quantity demanded, because the increased rainfall leads to flood hazards which force many inhabitants of the neighboring areas to relocate to join their relatives and settlement camps in Port Harcourt. It is therefore recommended that economic, environmental and urban planners should incorporate climate adaptation option in their planning in order to protect their goods against climate disasters, as well as implement the urban developmental laws in the area.
S. I.Efe,V. E.Weli, (2015) Economic Impact of Climate Change in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. Open Journal of Social Sciences,03,57-68. doi: 10.4236/jss.2015.33012