Modern Economy, 2011, 2, 667-673
doi:10.4236/me.2011.24074 Published Online September 2011 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/me)
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. ME
Does Choice between an Endogenous and a Fixed Poverty
Line Affect the Poverty O utcome of Po l i c y R e fo r m s ?
Teguh Dartanto
LPEM, Department of Economics, University of In d one sia and GSID, Nagoya University, Japan
E-mail: teguh@lpem-feui.org
Received April 27, 2011; revised June 22, 2011; accepted July 5, 2011
Abstract
Most of studies on the poverty impact of policy reforms assumed the poverty line as a fixed line; thus, the
poverty outcome of policy reforms may underestimate (overestimate) and mislead in policy guidance. This
research aims at theoretically investigating the difference of poverty outcomes between applying a fixed and
an endogenous poverty line. Applying the microeconomic theory of consumer behavior and the properties of
the poverty function, this study has theoretically proven that, if the fixed poverty line is applied, the poverty
impact of policy reforms which significantly increase (decrease) price will always be underestimated (over-
estimated). Further, if the policy reforms do not change the price level in the economy, choice either an en-
dogenous poverty line or a fixed poverty line does not affect the poverty outcome. However, this is difficult
to guarantee that the policy reforms do not influence the price level, so applying an endogenous poverty line
will result the best poverty outcome.
Keywords: Endogenous Poverty Line, Poverty Measures, Policy Reforms, Microeconomic Analysis
1. Introduction
Policy reforms (economic shocks) frequently have a
large impact on household welfare through changing
both the price level and income (factors’ income). How
policy reforms (economic shocks) influence price and
income could be explained clearly by the framework of
the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply in mac-
roeconomic theory. The po licy reforms (e.g. interventio n
policies), such as a decrease in value added tax or an
increase in public investment in infrastructure, will shift
the aggregate demand curve to the right side. Supposing
there is no change in the aggregate supply curve, the
shifting of the aggregate demand curve to the right side
will increase both the price and income.
In the case of poverty, a price increase would reduce
the household’s ability to afford an initial bun d le of basic
consumption needs; thus, the new consumption bundle
might be below the poverty line (the threshold of mini-
mum consumption). On the other hand, an increase in the
factors’ income would increase the household’s income,
which implies an increase in the ability to consume more.
The increase in household consumption above the pover-
ty line will change the household’s status from poor to
non-poor. Moreover, an increase in price will directly
change the money metric of obtaining 2,100 calories as
the minimum standard calories for measuring the poverty
line [1-3].
Policy reforms (economic shocks) that increase the
price level will have a double effect on poverty: 1) re-
duce the purchasing power and 2) increase the poverty
line. The first effect has been observed by many studies
which are mainly focused on the relationship between
changes in price (inflation) and poverty. [4] using US
data set found that inflation worsens a consumption-
based poverty measure over the period 1959-92, but has
no significant impact on the income-based poverty rate.
[5] found in a cross-time, cross-state study of India that
observations with higher inflation rates also had higher
poverty rates. [6] also found poverty rates to be posi-
tively related to inflation in cross-countr y data. Moreover,
[7] showed changes in price influence poverty in terms
of two components, namely the income effect and the
distributional effect. The income effect measures the
change in poverty when all prices increase uniformly,
whereas the distributional effect captures the changes in
poverty because of the changes in relative prices.
However, most of studies on the poverty impact of
policy reforms do not pay much attention to the second
effect, as the poverty line is assumed as a fixed line; thus,
T. DARTANTO
668
the poverty outcome of policy reforms may underesti-
mate (overestimate) and mislead in policy gu idance. Th is
research aims to theoretically investigate the difference
of poverty outcomes between applying a fixed and an
endogenous poverty line. This study consists of four
main sections. The first section briefly exp lains the theo-
retical framework of the aggregate demand and aggre-
gate supply. The second section describes the poverty
measurement which consists of poverty definition and
graphical analysis. The next section then discusses the
mathematical model which includes the microeconomic
theory of consumer behavior, the poverty function and
the mathematical proof. All sections are intuitively and
mathematically intended to show the difference of pov-
erty outcome between applying both poverty lines.
Lastly, this study will end with some main findings and
recommendations.
2. Policy Reforms (Economic Shocks) and
Price (Income) Changes
This study utilizes the framework of aggregate demand
(AD) and aggregate supply (AS) to analyze how policy
reforms (economic shocks) can influence both price and
income level in the economy. The aggregate demand is a
downward sloping relationship between output and price
level while the aggregate supply is an upward sloping
relationship among output and prices.
The aggregate demand could be derived by applying
the IS-LM framework. Equilibrium in the goods market
(IS):



,, ,
,,
yCytx Iyr GEXery
IMer y p

[1]
Equilibrium in the money market (LM):

,mp Lyi [2]
Where, C is private consumption, 0,
y
CyC
 
0
tx
CtxC
; y is aggregate demand; tx is the tax
rate; I is investment, 0, 0
yr
IyI IrI

 ; r is
the real interest rate; G is government consumption; IM
is import, 0, 0,
er y
IM erIMIM yIM
 
*0
p
IMpIM
 
; er is the exchange rate; EX is ex-
port, *
*
0, 0
er y; EX erEXEXyEX
 
p
is
the world price;
y
is the foreign output of trade partner;
mp is the real money supply,

0,
y
L
mp y

0
i; p is the price level; i is the no minal
interest rate; let us assume r = i.
mpi L

Taking total derivative of Equation 1 and Equation 2
then we get:
ytx yrer
ery p
y
dyCdyCdtx Idy Idr dG EXder
EXdyIMderIM dyIMdp
 
 

 [3]
2yr
dmpmpdpLdyL dr

 [4]
Substituting Equation 4 into Equation 3, then we ob-
tain the aggregate de mand (AD):


21
rryyyyr r
rr
tx erer
yp
dppmL ICIIMLILdy
IL dmp
C dtxdGEXderEXdyIMderIMdp




 



 
[5]
According to Equation 5, we know that, for instance,
an increase in government spending or the imported
price of goods will raise the price level in the econo my.



2
2
dd 0,
dd 0
rr
rr p
pG pmLI
pp pmLIIM


 

On the other hand, the aggregate supply function can
be derived from the production function of a representa-
tive firm in which L is labor;
K
is capital;
A
is aug-
mented technology; w is the nominal wage rate; p is the
price level. In its most general form, it would be:
,,yfALK
[6]
where 0yL f
 and 22 0yL f


. The
representative firm maximizes profit:
max
Lpy wL given p [7]
The first order condition (foc) is wpy L = the
marginal produ ct of labor. Since the marginal product of
labor is a function of L, then we have
,,wpf ALKgL
. Therefore,

1,Lg wphwph
0
 [8]
Substituting Equation 8 into Equation 6, then we have
the inverted aggregate supply curve,

,,yfAhwpK [9]
According to Equation 9, we have dd 0yp and
also dd 0py. Thus, the slope of the aggregate supply
is upward sloping. From Equation 9, we also know that,
for instance, an increase in technology will raise the
price level and output in the economy. An increase in the
price level will then reduce the real wage rate. However,
in order to keep the real wage rate, an increase in the
price level must be compensated with an increase in the
nominal wage rate.
The aggregate demand and supply framework clearly
showed that policy reforms (economic shocks) will al-
ways affect an economy through changes in price and
income level (wage rate) and these changes have signi-
ficant effects on poverty incidence.
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. ME
T. DARTANTO669
3. Poverty Mea surement
3.1. Poverty Definition
There are two main approaches for measuring poverty: 1)
welfare approach and 2) non-welfarist approach. The
welfare approach interprets “welfare” as an (inter-per-
sonally comparable) utility, i.e. attainment of personal
satisfaction. Poverty means not having a sufficient in-
come to attain some normative (reference) level of utility.
Meanwhile, the non-welfarist approach is divided into
two schools of thought: basic needs approach and capa-
bilities approach. The basic needs approach attempts to
define the absolute minimum resources necessary for
long-term physical well-being, usually in terms of con-
sumption goods. The poverty line is then defined as the
amount of income required to satisfy those needs. On the
other hand, the capabilities approach, well known as
Sen’s Capabilities Approach, argues that welfare should
be thought of in terms of the functioning (“beings and
doings”) that a person is able to achieve. Poverty means
not having a sufficient income to support specific nor-
mative functioning. Utility can be viewed as one such
functioning relevant to well-being, but only one. Inde-
pendently of utility, one might say that a person is better
off if she or he is able to participate fully in social and
economic activity [1,8].
The problem of defining and measuring poverty has
been debated in the last decade, because there are many
definitions and methods for calculating the poverty inci-
dence and the poverty has multi-characteristics. Re-
searchers in the poverty field employ a wide definition of
poverty. All definitions can basically fit into one of the
following categories [9]: 1) poverty is having less than
objectively defined, absolute minimum; Basic Needs
Approach defines the absolute minimum in terms of
“Basic Needs” such as food, clothing, and housing. 2)
Poverty is having less than others in society. 3) Poverty
is feeling people who do not have enough to survive;
subjective minimum income definition stated that if their
actual income level is less than the amount they consider
being “just sufficient”, they are categorized as poor.
The choice of a certain definition is often made on the
basis of the pragmatic argument of data availability.
However, most researchers agreed that poverty can be
conceptualized in the idea of absolute deprivation suf-
fered by the population. A person suffers from absolute
deprivation if he or she cannot enjoy the society’s mini-
mum standard of living. If one accepts a definition of
minimum standard of living as consumption at a certain
level which is mainly known as the poverty line (z), then
the poverty measurement is straightforward: those with
consumption expenditure (E) below the line are consi-
dered “poor’’ and the rest are “non-poor’’.
The consumption expenditure should theoretically be
function of price and income, E(p,y), while the ideal
poverty line should then be the minimum cost to a given
individual of a reference level of welfare fixed across all
individuals,
*
U [1]. Thus, the poverty line can be
defined as cost of achieving
when facing price
vector p and the vector of consumption bundle
*
U
.
Therefore, the poverty line can be defined as
,,zp pU
. The consumption expenditure function
and the poverty line will specifically be explained in the
mathematical model.
3.2. The Graphical Analysis: the Difference
Outcome between Applying a Fixed and an
Endogenous Poverty Line
Figure 1 shows the graph ical analysis of the difference
in poverty outcome of applying the endogenous or the
fixed poverty line. The initial poverty incidence is the
area of the expenditure distribution curve, (E0(p0,y0)
N(50,152)), below the initial poverty line, (z0 =
z(p0,
0(p0,U*)), which is equal to the area of 020A. If the
policy reforms (economic shocks) affect an increase in
income and price level and assuming the constant in-
come distribution and the fixed (constant) poverty line,
the poverty incidence will decrease significantly from the
area of 020A to the area of 020B. However, it is very
difficult to guarantee that the effect of policy reforms
could be equally distributed among households. Hence,
the income distribution might be changed responding to
policy reforms (economic shocks). Under the fixed po-
verty line and changing income distribution, the new po-
verty incidence is not very different from the initial po-
verty incidence. It is shown by the area of the expen-
diture distribution curve (E1(p1,y1) N(60,202)), below
the poverty line (z0 = z(p0,
0(p0,U*)), is almost equal to
the area of the expenditure distribution curve (E1(p1,y1)
N(50,152)) below the poverty line (z0 = z(p0,
0(p0,U*)).
Hence, the policy reforms or economic shocks do not
successfully decrease the poverty incidence.
However, assuming the fixed (constant) poverty line,
when the price level is significantly changed, it does not
seem appropriate. It should be remembered that the
common starting point of many poverty calculations is a
food intake requir ement of 2,100 calories per person per
day [1]; therefore, the increasing commodity price
would also increase the money metric of obtaining 2,100
calories, therefore, the poverty line will change fo-
llowing a variation in relative prices. If the poverty line
becomes endogenous following the price change, (z1 =
z(p1,
1(p1,U*)), and the income distribu tion is assumed as
a constant, the new poverty incidence is the area of 025C
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. ME
T. DARTANTO
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. ME
670
Figure 1. An Illustration of Poverty Impact of Shifting the Expenditure Distribution Curve and the Poverty Line responding
to Change in Price and Income Level. Source: Author; Note: p0 is the initial price level while p1 is the new price level as a
result of policy reforms (economic shocks). y0 is the initial income level while y1 is the new income level.
0 is the initial mini-
mum consumption bundle both food and non-food while
1 is the new minimum consumption bundle both food and non-food
after policy reforms or economic shocks. z0 = z(p0,
0(p0,U*)) is the initial poverty line when price level p0. z1 = z(p1,
1(p1,U*)) is
the endogenous poverty line. E0(p0,y0)N(50,152) is the initial expenditure distribution function which is normally distributed
with average = 50 and variance = 152. E1(p1,y1) N(60,152) is the new expenditure distribution function which is normally
distributed with average = 60 and variance = 152. E1(p1,y1) N(60,202) is the new expenditure distribution function which is
normally distributed with average = 60 and variance = 202.
4. Mathematical Model
which is larger than that of 020B. Moreover, if the pov-
erty line becomes endogenous and the income distribu-
tion changes following the price and income changes, the
new poverty incidence is the area of 025D which is lar-
ger than either that of 020A or 020B. Therefore, the po-
licy reform, which pushes high inflation and worsens the
income distribution, is not beneficial to the poor.
4.1. Microeconomic Theory of Consumer
Behavior
The graphical illustration has clearly shown the under-
estimate of poverty incidence when the fixed poverty
line is applied to analyze policy reforms (economic
shocks). In order to strengthen the finding from the gra-
phical analysis, this study would like to prove mathema-
tically the underestimate of poverty impact of policy
reforms when the fixed poverty line is applied. The mi-
croeconomic theories of consumer behavior—both the
Utility Maximization Theory (UMP) and the Expenditure
Minimization Theory (EMP)—will be utilized as a basic
framework for examining how important an application
of an endogenous poverty line is when analyzing the
poverty impact of policy reforms.
According to this figure, the impact of policy reforms
or economic shocks on poverty depends on three main
parts: 1) change in household expenditure distribution
following change in price and income level; 2) change in
income distribution since the impact of policy reforms
commonly does not equally distributed among house-
holds; 3) change in the poverty line following change in
the price level. It can also be concluded that if the fixed
poverty line is applied, the poverty impact of policy re-
forms (economic shocks) which significantly increase
(decrease) price level in the economy will always under-
estimate (overestimate); consequently, it might provide
biased policy guidance. We assume throughout that the consumer has a ra-
tional, continuous, and locally non-satiated preference
T. DARTANTO671
relation, and we take to be a continuous utility
function representing this preference. The consumption
set is in which l is a unit of commodity
. The initial income is y which comes from
selling its endowment of labor and capital for production
activities. The price vector is

Ux
l
R

l
1i

,l
il
pp pR


in
which is the price of a unit of commodity
. Therefore, the set of all feasible commodity
bundles for the consumer is
i
p
l
1i

,Bpyxpxy .
The set is called the budget set of the con-
sumer if his income is y and the price system is p.
,Bp
y
Then the optimization problem of a consumer with
utility function , income y and price system p is
subject to ,. This optimization
results in the consumer’s demand function

Ux

maxUx px y0x
,
x
xpy.
If

,
x
xp
Vp
y
,y
is the consumer’s demand function, the
indirect utility function of the consumer is
which is given by Vp . The proper-
ties of are strictly increasing in y for all p and
non-increasing inifor all i=1,,l (decreasing in p);
homogeneous of degree zero in (p,y), continuous in (p,y),
and quasi-convex in (p,y) [10].
1l
VR


,R

y
py
,Ux
p
On the other hand, the consumer can also look for a
commodity bundle which guarantees him to achieve a
utility level with minimum expenditure y. This is
well known as the expenditure minimization problem
(EMP). The value of the EMP is denoted

Ux
,epU
which is called the consumer’s expenditure function. Its
value for any is simply , where
,pU
px
x
is any
solution to the EMP. The properties of are
strictly increasing in for every p and non-decreasing
in i for all i = 1,…,i; homogeneous of degree one in p;
concave in p; continuous in p and U [10]. The set of opti-
mal commodity in the EMP is denoted and is
known as the Hicksian, or compensated, demand corre-
spondence or function if single-valued. One of the pro-
perties of the Hicksian demand corresp o nde nce

,U
U
ep
,
U
p
hp
,hp
hp
U

U
is homogeneity of degree zero in p:
for any p, U and
hp
,,U0
[10].
If the
x
is the solution to the Utility Maximization
Problem (UMP) when , in which
0ypx

x
is a
solution to the problem of maximization subject
to and , then
Ux
px y0x
x

Ux
is also the solution of
the Expenditure Minimization Problem (EMP) when the
required utility level is
. Moreover, the mini-
mized expenditure level in this EMP is exactly y. If the
x
is optimal in the EMP when required utility level is
, then

Ux
0U
x
is optimal in the UMP when
income is
y
px
. Moreover, the maximized utility
level in this UMP is exactly U. The EMP is the “dual”
problem to the UMP. From UMP and EMP, then we
have:




e,e,e, ,ypxpUpUxpVpy

  [10]


,, ,e,UUx VpyVppxVppU

  [11]


,,,e,hpUx pyx ppU


[12]

,,,
x
pyhpV py
[13]
4.2. Poverty Function
Even though, there are many definitions, measurements
and characteristics of poverty, this study simplify defines
that poverty is those with consumption expenditure be-
low the line a re cons idered “p oor’’ and the rest ar e “non-
poor’’. According to [11-16], it could be summarized
that the poverty (HC) is a function of the welfare indica-
tor (w), the poverty line (z) and the income distribution
. The poverty function is shown as follows:
,,HCfw z
[14]
The properties of poverty function are continuous and
decreasing in w, continuous and increasing in both z and
. Decreasing in w implies poverty indicators will de-
crease following an increase in the welfare indicators.
The measurable welfare indicators commonly used in
analyzing poverty are either income or expenditure.
Meanwhile, increases in both z and
implies that
poverty indicators will increase in line with an increase
in the poverty line and the income distribution. Su-
pposing the expenditure as the welfare indicator and fol-
lowing Equation 10, then we have the welfare function
shown be low:


e,e, ,wypxpUpVp y

[15]
On the other hand, the ideal poverty line should then
be the minimum cost to a given individual of a reference
level of welfare fixed across all individuals,
*
U [1].
Thus, the poverty line can be defined as cost of achieving
*
U when facing price vector p and the vector of
consumption bundle
. The vector of consumption
bundle
is a function of p and , the
Hicksian demand correspondence. is the mi-
nimum consumption bundle to achieve (e.g. 2,100
calories) when price vector is p. According to Equation
12 and Equation 13,
*
U
*
,pU
*
pU*
U
,
*
,pU
must be equal to
,py
, the demand function. Thus, the poverty line
can be shown as below:
*
,,zzppU
[16]
The poverty line,
*
,,zzppU
, is continuously
increasing in p and
. Suppose is a fixed value
overtime1, then
*
U
**
0
ttUU

, and the one property
1The utility is fixed because the standard reference of welfare as abasis
of calculation of poverty line is not easily changed overtime. For in-
stance, the minimum standard of 2,100 calories for measuring the pov-
erty line does not change for many years.
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. ME
T. DARTANTO
672
of the Hicksian demand correspondence is the homoge-
neity of degree zero in p, then *0U
  and
0p
.
Lastly, let us simplify that the income distribution,
which is mainly measured by either the Gini Index or
Theil Index, is a function of the distribution of endow-
ments

among households in a society. Endow-
ments could be defined as labor, capital, land ownership
and education attainment etc. Let us assume that the
properties of income distribution are continuous and in-
creasing in
. Increasing in
means an unequal dis-
tribution of endowments in society related to more un-
equal in income distribution. The income distribution
function is shown below:


[17]
Substituting Equation 17, Equation 16, Equation 15
into Equation 14, then we obtain the poverty function as
shown be low:






*
e,,,,,,HCfpVpyzpp U

[18]
4.3. The Mathematical Proof of Different
Poverty Outcome
As mentioned in the graphical analysis, if the fixed po-
verty line is applied, the poverty impact of policy re-
forms (economic shocks) which increase the price level
will always be underestimated. This study will mathe-
matically prove the evidence from the graphical analysis
by utilizing Equation 18 and the properties of expendi-
ture function, indirect utility function, poverty function
and income distribution function.
Proposition:
Supposing the application of a fixed poverty line, the
poverty impact of policy reforms which largely increase
(decrease) the price level, will always be underestimated
(overestimated).
Proof:
Let us take the total derivate of Equation 18 and if
dd;; ;
tept
;
H
CHCtffeeepppt


;
V
eeV
;
p
VVp
;
y
VVy
 ;
t
yy
 t
;
z
f
fz
 ;
p
zzp
  ;zz
 ;
pp


**;
U
zzU
  **;
UU

 **
;
t
UU

t
;ff
  ;

  and tt
 then we
have:
**
*
tepteVpt eVy
zptzpt
zt t
UU
t
H
Cfep feVp feVy
fzp fzp
fzU f




 

 

[19a]
Suppose (there is no change in the reference
of utility, ) and
*0
t
U
*
U0
p
(the homogeneity of degree
zero in p), then Equation 19(a) will be:
tepteVpt eVyt
zpt t
H
CfepfeVpfeVy
fzpf


 

 
  [19b]
Suppose 0;
e
f
0;
p
e
0;
t
p 0;
V
e0;
p
V
0;
y
V
0;
t
y
0;
z
f
0;
p
z 0;f
0;
0;
t
If

ep teVyt
eVpz pt
fe pfeVy
feV pfzpf


 

  

then the sign of change in poverty (HC) is negative. It
means that the policy reforms or economic shocks bene-
fit the poor. On the contrary, if

ep teVyt
eVpz pt
fe pfeVy
feV pfz pf


 

  

then the sign of change in poverty (HC) is positive
meaning the policy reforms or economic shocks do not
benefit the poor.
Equation 19(b) intuitively shows that the change in
poverty responding to policy reforms or economic
shocks depends on five components: 1) change in house-
hold expenditure as a result of a change in price, 2)
change in household expenditure as a response to utility
change due to a change in price, 3) change in household
expenditure as a response to utility change due to a change
in income, 4) change in poverty line as a response to a
price change, 5) change in income distribution as a re-
sponse to a change in endowment.
Equation 19(b) rep resents the pov erty impact of po licy
reforms under the endogenous poverty line. The part of
z
pt
f
zp

in Equation 19(b) is the change of the pov-
erty indicator contributed by the change in the poverty
line. Deleting
z
pt
f
zp

in Equation 19(b), then we
have:
fix
tepteVp
eVy tt
H
CfepfeVp
feVy f

 

 
  [20]
Equation 20 represents the poverty impact of policy
reforms under the fixed poverty line. There is no change
in the poverty indicator contributed by the change in the
poverty line. The different poverty outcome between
applying the endogenous poverty line and the fixed pov-
erty line can be calculated by deducting Equation 20
from Equation 19(b). The different outcome is shown
below:
0
fix
tt zpt
HCHCf zp

 [21]
According to Equation 21, if , the poverty
outcome under the endogenous poverty line will always
be large than that of the fixed poverty line. However, if
the policy reforms or economic shocks did not affect the
0
t
p
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. ME
T. DARTANTO
Copyright © 2011 SciRes. ME
673
price level, then the poverty outcome either under the
endogenous poverty line or the fixed poverty line will be
equal. Therefore, the proposition, that if the fixed pover-
ty line is applied, the poverty impact of policy reforms
which largely increase (decrease) the price level will
always be underestimated (overestimated) can be math-
ematically proven. QED
5. Concluding Remarks
Policy reforms (economic shocks) that increase the price
level will have a double effect on poverty: 1) reduce the
purchasing power and 2) increase the poverty line. Most of
studies on the poverty impact of policy reforms do not pay
much attention to the second effect, as the poverty line is
assumed as a fixed line; thus, the poverty outcome of pol-
icy reforms may underestimate (overestimate) and mislead
in policy guidance. The graphical analysis and the mathe-
matical model have clearly showed how important an ap-
plication of an endogenous poverty line is when analyzing
the poverty impact of policy reforms.
Applying the microeconomic theory of consumer be-
havior and the properties of poverty function, this study has
theoretically proven that, under the fixed poverty line, the
poverty impact of policy reforms (economic shocks) which
significantly increase (decrease) price will always be un-
derestimated (overestimated). However, if the policy re-
forms (economics shocks) do not change the price level in
the economy, applying either the fixed poverty line or the
endogenous poverty line will result in a similar outcome.
Since this is difficult to guarantee that the policy reforms
do not change the price level, thus, this study suggests that
the endogenous poverty line should be applied when ana-
lyzing the poverty impacts of policy reforms. Moreover,
the empirical investigation should be done in order to
strengthen the finding from the graphical analysis and the
mathem atical m odel.
6. Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank the participants at the
Monthly Discussion at the Department of Economics,
University of Indonesia, on September 30, 2010, and
Prof. Shigeru Otsubo for their valuable comments. Any
remaining errors are the author’s responsibility.
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