Journal of Power and Energy Engineering, 2014, 2, 340-344
Published Online April 2014 in SciRes. http://www.scirp.org/journal/jpee
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jpee.2014.24045
How to cite this paper: Tang, L., Zhou, X.Q. and Yang, X. (2014) Analysis of Energy Consumption Scenarios of Building in
Guangzhou in a Mid-Long Term. Journal of Power and Energy Engineering, 2, 340-344.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jpee.2014.24045
Analysis of Energy Consumption Scenarios
of Building in Guangzhou in a Mid-Long
Term
Lan Tang, Xiaoqing Zhou, Xin Yang
The Institute of Building Energy Conservation, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China
Received January 2014
Abstract
According to the year of 2009, calculated energy consumption quantity and energy consumption
structure of building in Guangzhou to 2030, analyzed adjustment and approach of sustainable de-
velopment and potential of energy conservation which can provide commendable technology
progress in every department.
Keywords
Calculated; Analyze; Adjustment; Approach; Technology Progress
1. The Analysis of Basic Situation of Energy Consumption of Building in
Guangzhou
As it investigates tertiary industry and living energy consumption took up 44% in whole energy consumption in
2009 which mainly take place in building and transportation, so it is significant to analyze and research building
energy consumption for energy conservation. According to different function, buildings can be divided into res-
idence buildings, public buildings and industry buildings. Energy consumption of residence buildings included
heating, lightin g, electrical equipment, air conditioning and cooking. Energy consumption of public buildings
included air conditioning, ligh ting, elevator, office equipment, waterbowl and auxiliary equipments. The analy-
sis of building energy consumption in Guangzhou will not need to consider the heating energy consumption，the
energy consumption of residence buildings and public buildings are not expressly listed in the Statistical Year-
book, therefore, this issue will be integrated the energy consumption of energy balance，as the analysis of energy
consumption of residence buildings, the third industrial energy (excluding transport, storage and postal industry
energy use) as a public building energy analysis [1].
Table 1 shows the energy consumption of buildings from 2001 to 2009 in Guangzhou City, the average an-
nual growth rate was 13.35%, it was significantly higher than the total energy consumption growth rate，this also
makes the proportion of energy consumption of buildings taking up total energy consumption increases every
year, energy consumption of buildings reached 14.09 million tons of standard coal in 2009 reached 25.22% of
total energy consumption. The public buildings accounted for 60% in the composition of energy consumption of

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Table 1. The situation of building energy consumption (million tce).
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Residence 208.17
44.1% 243.59 40.1% 354.35 40.1% 434.81 36.9% 491.25 34.9%
Public 264.43
56.0% 363.89 59.9% 529.54 59.9% 742.87 63.1% 917.9 65.1%
Total 472.60 607.48 883.89 1177.68 1409.15
Proportion (%) 21.07 21.91 21.94 24.30 25.22
buildings, and its average annual growth rate (17.29%) is higher than the annual growth rate (8.48%) in resi-
dence buildings, therefore, energy conservation of public buildings is an important part of energy conservation
of buildings in Guangzhou City.
2. The Method of Analysis of Energy Demand and Development of Building Field in
Guangzhou City
When we analyze the future development of building energy consumption, we use the scenario analysis method
and the modeling tools. Prediction of building energy consumption chooses the “Chinese building energy con-
sumption model” which was developed by Tsinghua University to calculate [2]. Chinese building energy con-
sumption model which calculates the number bottom-up through the intension and quantity of energy consump-
tion, and verified by the statistics macroscopic. It takes climate, economic development, technology and lifestyle
factors into account on building energy consumption, classified energy consumption of buildings into tree
structure. The results are divided into power consumption and fuel consumption (converted into heat by low
standard coal).
The formula is: heating energy consumption (abbreviated).
Residence energy consumption and public buildings energy consumption calculation:
,, ,,nml nml
nmm
Ebe Ab= ⋅
∑∑∑
In this formula, e stands the end use of residential energy consumption per unit area/different types of public
buildings total energy consumption, unit kwh/m2, or kgce/m2; Ab stands the corresponding building area, l
stands a variety of lifestyles Ratio, m represents a different end-use residential/public buildings type, n repre-
sents the climate zone.
In order to reflect the situation of the real causal interaction between a variety of conditions objectively, when
we do the scenario analysis, it is necessary to review and evaluate the events that have happened, then analyze
the internal relations and regulations, and find out some important factors in it, and assume factors that are un-
certain and certain which can affect the development trends reasonably, then reaching the future development
trends. These assumptions should be able to match each other, with technical, economic, social and other aspects
rationality. As the premise, in respect of model structure, it’s an important part to set a reasonable scenario for
the issue. Scenarios mainly describe the macro-social development of Guangzhou, as well as the characteristics
of building energy consumption to the scene settings. Usually design a basic scenario (BAU, business as usually,
that at current trends), and then set some alternative scenarios by changing the assumptions, and then compared
with the basic scenario, to study changes in future energy demand. Generally assumed that the future projections
of catastrophic events will not occur, because it is difficult to predict such events.
3. The Analysis of Predict of Energy Demand and Energy Saving Potential in
Building Field
The forecast of building energy consumption scenarios based on relative forecasts of the city's demographic,
economic and social development. One aspect, urban population growth makes the urban construction area in-
creases; urban economic development and the improvement of people’s living standards bring on the number
and variety of energy-using equipment level of service demand. Another aspect, in recent years, Chinese gov-

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ernment attaches great importance to building energy conservation , and correspo nd ing ly introduces a number of
laws and regulations, standards, policies, measures and economic incentives. Building energy consumption con-
tributes to the future development of the scenario analysis to explore and determine future energy strategy.
3.1. The Scenarios Setting
Building energy consumption is decided by total building area and quantity of energy consumption per unit area.
Therefore, the main factors that cause building energy consumption changing can be summarized as follows:
1) Changes in the total area building
In addition to the increase in population, the growth of per capita living area also contributed to the g ro w th of
total construction area. From 2000 to 2009, total construction area increased 31.29% in Guangzhou City, urban
public building area increased 24.51%, urban residential construction area increased 20.32%, rural residential
land area increased 51.55%. Living space per capita has also increased, urban per capita average annual growth
rate of residential area is 2.72% from 2005 to 2009; 2009 reached 21.01 square meters; average annual growth
rate of rural residents per capita residential area is 3.31%, and it reached 40.59 square meters in 2009, public
buildings per capita has also increased. The housing area per capita and per capita area of public buildings are at
a high level in Guangzhou City, and maintain steady growth. Setting the following two scenarios for the future
development trend of per capita area of structure, one is sustainable developing at the current level, the other is
strongly controlled by the tax system and the per capita housing area and per capita area of growth in public
buildings.
2) Changes in lifestyle
More and more people gradually change the traditional way of building energy consumption, resulting energy
consumption raised. Another aspect, the expansion of the concept of lifestyle and consumption has also led to
the increase of proportion of new public buildings which are high energy consumption. Setting changes in life-
style in whole society in scenario analysis, the system of residential and public buildings in the quantification of
different groups in the proportion of changes in energy intensity, that is part of the former are “low energy”
group of residential and public buildings change lives way for “high energy” group, and "low energy" groups to
“medium energy” conversion.
3) The improvement of technical level
Building energy consumption intensity is decided by the number of construction services and building energy
efficiency. The level of technology is mainly reflected in: reduce air conditioning load through the building
envelope by different local conditions; reduce energy consumption intensity through using efficient ener-
gy-saving lamps, air conditioning and electrical equipment. As is investigated the building energy consumption
per unit area in 2015 is 1.1 times in 2009, 2020 is 1.3 times for 2009, 2030 is 1.5 times for 2009; when the skill
levels of electrical equipment technology greatly increase, the growth of energy-using equipment in building
will be offset, energy consumption per unit area remained basically unchanged by 2030.
Based on the above assumptions of three main factors, we analyze the building energy consumption in 2015,
2020, 2030 by four steps. First, in accordance with current trends of the development of building energy con-
sumption, three factors are all non-energy savings, gaining the scenarios of non-energy savings (baseline scena-
rio); Second, considering energy-saving scenarios of three factors affecting independently; then considering
energy-saving scenarios of two of the three factors interact; eventually considering all three aspects of building
energy conservation play a great role, that is the most energy-saving scenarios.
3.2. Model Checking
From the model, the demand of total building energy consumption in 2009 is 14.414 million tons of standard
coal, it is in accordance with the total 14,091,500 tons of standard coal in statistical data and the error does not
exceed 2.2%. The calculation value of residential build ing s power consumption is 6.955 billion kw.h in 2009,
urban residential electricity consumption in 2009 is 7.399 billion kw.h; rural residential building energy con-
sumption calculation value is 3.71 billion kw.h, rural residential electricity consumption in 2009 is 3.715 billion
kw.h; the calculation value of public buildings power consumption is 11.907 billion kw.h, the value is 11.985
billion kw.h in Statistics, the error of calculation is in the acceptable range. It can be considered that the setting
of basic parameters of the model is reasonable, it is credible that the composition and demand of future energy
consumption which using the model to calculate.

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3.3. Energy Demand
Based on model calculations, if energy-saving measures are weak, according to current trends, Chinese tradi-
tional frugal energy consumption and living styles convert gradually to the pattern of perfect service and com-
fortable environment, and building energy consumption may grow significantly, reaching 59,294,500 tons of
coal equivalents by 2030, as shown in Table 2. Energy consumption is almost 4.1 times in 2009.
Figure 1 shows the situation of building energy consumption in different scenarios in 2030, from the view of
reduction of energy consumption, the technology has greatly improved do the most effect to reduction of energy
consumption, in the scenario, 2030 energy consumption is only 39,529,700 tons standard coal, save more than
10,953,100 tons of standard coal than reference scenario, followed by the control of increase of living space per
capita, it can save 14,184,800 tons of coal equivalent, it can save 6,407,900 tons of coal equivalent that most
people maintain the traditional way of life situations. Improvement of the technical level can offset the increase
in floor area and using equipment that due to increase in building energy consumption per unit area, it must rely
on existing technology and breakthrough innovation, it is difficult. Control the living space per capita and main-
taining the existing traditional way of life for most people also requires government’s strong guidance and the
people’s cooperation.
Of course, the two factors of three factors working together can make reduction of energy consumption more
significant, when the floor space per capita has been effectively controlled, most people remain the harmonious
way of life at current, and the technology improved, the advanced technologies can be effectively promoted,
energy consumption is only 30,390,400 tons of standard coal in the best energy scenario in 2030, it is only 51%
of energy consumption in the baseline scenario in 2030, saving nearly 49% of energy.
The composition of the total energy consumption in the baseline scenario in 2030 is shown in Figure 2, it is
obvious that A: non-electric energy consumption and B: power consumption is the most important part of the
total building energy consumption in public buildings, they were 50% and 9%, a total of 59 %; urban residential
electric energy consumption F and urban residential non-electric energy consumption E is 31%, followed by ru-
ral residential electric energy consumption D and rural residential non-electric energy consumption C, only
10%.
4. Conclusion
In this paper, we used the method of scenario analysis, combined with the corresponding model, analyzed the
energy development scenarios of construction and transportation sector in Guangzhou, making 20 09 year as the
base year, under certain assumptions, predicted the energy consumption and structure in construction sector to
2030, it will be able to provide good ideas and evidence to choose adjustment of energy structure and technolo-
gical progress.
Table 2. Table of building energy demand (million tons of standard coal/year).
Scenarios 2009 2015 2020 2030
Baseline scenario 1441.40 2126.99 3234.90 5929.45
Low-floor area 1441.40 2014.97 2847.97 4506.97
To maintain the traditional way of life 1441.40 2045.11 2996.48 5288.66
Technology has greatly improved 1441.40 1933.63 2488.39 3952.97
Low-floor area + to maintain the
traditional way of life 1441.40 1937.39 2638.06 4019.91
Low floor space + technology has
greatly improved 1441.40 2037.80 2387.80 3212.76
To maintain the traditional way of life
+ technology has greatly improved 1441.40 2112.26 2616.32 3998.25
Best scenario 1441.40 2001.03 2303.30 3039.04

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Figure 1. Energy consumption in different scenarios.
Figure 2. The composition of total energy
consumption in the baseline scenario in 2030.
Acknowledgements
We thank the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51078092) and “Yangcheng
scholar” project of Education Bureau of Guangzhou (10A039G).
References
[1] Statistical Yearbook of Guangzhou. China Statistics Press.
[2] (2009) China Building 2009 Annual Report on Energy. Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University,
China Building Industry Press, Beijing.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
12 3 45 6 78
different scenarios
D 3%
B 9%
C 7%
E 26%
F 5%
A 50%