DU J. J., YAO C. C.
Obviously, the formula is established.
It should be noted that findings in this are derived from a
short-range analysis of the PRC’s population strategy rather
than an examination of a medium or long term development. So
such a fundamental premise of this discussion should be mean-
ingful.
But it must be pointed out that the PRC needs to open her
labor market to the world, and should combine this policy with
outsourcing business, industrial restructuring and upgrading.
Taking advantage of East Asia regional integration can rebal-
ance the human resource supply and demand in the PRC and, in
so doing, avoid the international capital investment risks. In a
short term, this strategy will be able to fill the gap in labor sup-
ply that has emerged in the PRC, a gap that may cause social
instability. According to Table 3, there are 57.777 million peo-
ple engaged in such four main sectors as mining, manufacturing,
construction, electricity gas and water supply. As much as
37.04% of the manufacturing had been restructured by the time
of the survey. The other three sectors were still in need of large
number of unskilled and semi-skilled labors in long-term.
At the same time, the PRC’s secondary industry—mainly the
manufacturing industry, an industry that takes up 62.96% of the
total workforce—still need to be restructured. This is a huge
and difficult task that cannot be fulfilled within one day.
Therefore, capital transfers and international labor migration in
bilateral initiatives can be of help to circumvent capital idle
period before transferring, ensure effective capital utilization,
and cover up the labor shortage. At the same time, the Indus-
tries can capitalize the employment gap profitably. By that we
mean to open the PRC’s labor market, to improve the popula-
tion quality in the PRC, to import sufficient qualified labor to
the country, to win the time and opportunity over the next dec-
ade, and thereby to bring a new economic growth cycle in China.
Meanwhile, the strategy would provide the PRC a longer pe-
riod of social stability before future explosion of the aged
population occurs. The strategy would also help combat the
harm caused by unfair employment. The number of skilled and
educated workforce decides the optimization of allocation scale
of capital. At present, the PRC’s skilled and educated work-
force remains limited, and there needs to be a huge amount of
finance to support the future aging population. Perhaps in future
the PRC may still need manufacturing, for instance the em-
ployment number continues to increase in construction industry
in recent years when the PRC reaches 50% of urbanization. The
PRC may really need short-term international help with regard
to labor supply. Walking into the Asian economic unification
would be one significant step for the PRC.
Conclusion
By 2030, the PRC will truly meet 50% of the total population
dependency ratio. Now they still have a bonus period of 18
years. One cycle of the skilled population takes at least 30 years
to grow up after adequate training. The PRC’s population is
currently following a trend of inversed elimination and time is
needed to counter-reverse the trend. The improvement in popu-
lation qual- ity would need a longer period. At present, the
lower income industries excluding farming, forestry, animal
husbandry and fishery contributed 44.24% of total added value
in the PRC. Therefore, it would be irrational to make massive
industrial restructuring.
At present, the core target of the family planning policy to
stabilize the low fertility level should not be changed. The
PRC’s population must be controlled strictly and effectively.
Cooperations among Asian nations are all necessary regard-
less of the lengths of their terms. The first step should go for
short-term to take advantage of the East Asian integration
framework and to negotiate labor service cooperation. The barri-
ers should be removed and the policy cost and economic cost
should be reduced through negotiations. Mutual trust should be
built up, so that foreign labor costs can gradually match the do-
mestic costs to make up for the current labor shortage in the PRC.
Following formulas show the social wealth equilibrium
model under the ideal conditions:
short shortshort
long longlong
shortGDP wageshrotstagestage
longGDP wagelongstagestage
,1,18
,min, 18,
H
H
HLLPC
HLLPC
H—Social wealth generated by skilled population
—Annual accumulated social wealth
—Social wealth generated and wages paid from foreign
cheap labors
C—Training costs for skilled population
P—Costs supporting the Aging population
, condition exists when rupture of Asian integration and
war occur, the factor tending to 0. As the integration process
tends to perform better,the factor tending to 1, i.e. [0,1]
, refers to the economic return rate contributed by the
PRC’s skilled population in a short term of 1 - 18 years on the
condition of incompleted employment;
, refers to the economic return rate contributed by the
PRC’s skilled population in a long term of over 18 years in the
condition of completed employment, i.e.
;
short
stage , refers to uncertain factors,according to situation
changes in the PRC.
The first formula tells us that when the PRC’s total popula-
tion raising rate rises above 50% and ranges 1 - 18 years of
short- term population strategy, the PRC’s social total annual
wealth volume is balanced by the high expenditures of the
skilled population and the expenditures for lower margin of the
ageing population, corresponding to the limited industries of
high value added limited by number of high quality population,
and continuing to maintain huge scale of pillar but low added
value industries.
The second formula shows that, after implementing the me-
dium and long-term population strategy for 18 years, the PRC’s
annual accumulated wealth will be balanced by skilled popula-
tion and high expenditure, and the expenditure to support the
gradually increased older population.
REFERENCES
Bao Chengzhong 鲍成中(2012). Woguo gaodeng jiaoyu jingfei de
baozhang he shiyong 我国高等教育经费的保障和使用. Jiaoyu
Zhengce Yanjiu, 9, 9-12.
CHIA, S. Y. (2006). Labor mobility and East Asian integration. Asian
Copyright © 2013 SciRes.
110