J. E. RIGGS, G. R. HOBBS
cide rates displayed sigmoid curves rising from a lower plateau
to an upper plateau (Figures 1 through 4) is consistent with the
thesis that some competitive influence may be driving the
growth of these reported homicide rates (Smith, 1952; Weiss &
Kavanau, 1957; Botkin et al., 1972; Southwood & Comins,
1976; Zeide, 1993; Tsoularis & Wallace, 2002; Powell et al.,
2006). The observation that increases in reported homicide
rates in young children (Figures 1 and 2) and infants (Figures
3 and 4) were separated in time by nearly 16 years argues
against any suggestion that increased societal violence directed
against young children and infants was responsible since it
seems rather unlikely that societal violence against young chil-
dren would have increased in the late 1960’s and then, about 16
years later, that societal violence against infants would have
distinctly and separately increased in the early 1980’s. Figures
5 through 8 are consistent with the thesis that decreasing re-
ported non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates in young chil-
dren and infants were the competitive factor responsible for the
observed increases in corresponding reported homicide rates.
The regressions performed on the data displayed in Figures 5
through 8 suggest that 84.2% and 94.2% of the variation in
young child homicide rates was explained by variation in cor-
responding non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates in boys
and girls respectively, and that 69.4% and 66.3% of the varia-
tion in infant homicide rates was explained by variation in cor-
responding non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates in boys
and girls respectively.
When classifying two mutually exclusive events, their rela-
tive frequency may be important. For example, if event A and
event B are potentially difficult to distinguish and event A is
much more frequent, then there may be a tendency to bias clas-
sification towards event A (Riggs & Hobbs, 2011; Riggs &
Hobbs, 2012). However, if event A becomes less frequent and
sensitivity to recognizing event B is increasing, there may be a
tendency to bias classification towards event B (Riggs & Hobbs,
2011; Riggs & Hobbs, 2012). Thus, when reported young child
and infant non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates were both
absolutely and relatively high compared to reported young child
and infant homicide rates, under ascertainment of homicides
was understandable, and perhaps even predictable. However,
when reported young child and infant non-motor vehicle acci-
dent mortality rates absolutely and relatively declined com-
pared to reported young child and infant homicide rates, and
these changing frequencies were coupled with the increased so-
cietal sensitivity to the problem of child abuse, a change in the
propensity to assign a homicide classification over a non-motor
vehicle accidental death classification as a cause of unnatural
death in a young child or an infant became conversely under-
standable, and perhaps even also predictable (Riggs & Hobbs,
2011; Riggs & Hobbs, 2012).
These findings are consistent with the thesis that changing
propensities in the classification of young child and infant
deaths as either homicides or non-motor vehicle accident deaths,
rather than actual changes in societal violence, may explain a
substantial proportion of the reported increases in homicide
rates in these two groups. Moreover, the observation that in-
creases in homicide rates in young children and infants were
separated in time by nearly 16 years further supports this thesis.
This analysis deals with the inherent competitive nature of
classifying two mutually exclusive events, homicides and non-
motor vehicle accident deaths, in young children and infants.
This analysis does not prove that misclassification of these two
mutually exclusive events actually occurred in any specific in-
stance. Nevertheless, this analysis does demonstrate that homi-
cide rates have been substantially dependent upon non-motor
vehicle accident death rates in young children and infants.
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